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Old 09-07-2009, 05:01 PM   #201
HappyGuy
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Time to bet on Verdasco , cant trust Isner to win this anymore , his stats are getting worse and Verdasco is break up already in the 2nd set after losing first one 4-6 . If this goes 1-1 sets I dont like Isner's chances at all , he is known for running out of gas .
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Old 09-08-2009, 11:11 AM   #202
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

where are you, happy?
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Old 09-08-2009, 11:42 AM   #203
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

damn Happy you are good sir, anything for today?
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Old 09-08-2009, 01:13 PM   #204
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Other than Murray + Serena I don't really see anything solid today . Tsonga vs Gonzalez anything can happen in this one and Nadal vs Monfils same because Nadal isn't 100 % but still he is a true champion that finds ways to win close matches .
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Old 09-08-2009, 03:08 PM   #205
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Murray just lost the first set 5-7 .
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Old 09-08-2009, 05:22 PM   #206
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Murray lost 3:0 sets , 75.00 odds for this


8 September

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

US Open 2009 R16

Start time : in 15 mins

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Fernando Gonzalez

My pick is OVER 9.5 GAMES FIRST SET

Odds : 1.53

Where : expekt

5 units to win 2.65 units


Last minute play for action , didn't have a bet whole day . Both always come out guns blazing , dont see any problem for either holding 4 times .

Also laying Nadal not to win 3:0 , and Monfils to win the match for in-play trading .
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Old 09-08-2009, 06:20 PM   #207
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Looks like it's going to be another 6-3 set , Gonzalez got back from 0-40 to ADV but lost 3 points in a row again .

Last two today

8 September

Wager Type : WTA Set betting

US Open 2009 QF

Start time : 04:15 PM PST

Flavia Pennetta vs Serena Williams

My pick is Serena Williams 2:0 SETS

Odds : - 169

Where : pinnaclesports

8.45 units to win 5 units


Serena means business and has to win in 2 sets to save energy for 1/2 against Kim . Pennetta should have went out in the previous round if Zvonareva had any brains , wasting 6 matchpoints in the 2nd set . I dont see Serena messing around , her serve was insane in the previous rounds and I can see something like 3-6 4-6 here .

8 September

Wager Type : ATP Set betting

US Open 2009 RD16

Start time : 05:45 PM PST

Rafael Nadal vs Gael Monfils

My pick is NOT RAFAEL NADAL 3:0 SETS

Odds : - 260

Where : betfair

13 units to win 5 units


I think Monfils will win this match or lose very close maybe 2:3 sets , will trade during the match starting with Nadal lay .
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Old 09-08-2009, 07:08 PM   #208
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Freely admitting how wrong I was. Nadal trading at -220 vs Monfils on sportsbook and I imagine you can get better elsewhere. So maybe there was some value overall (seeing as Murray laid down) Just proves once again that I know nothing.

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Originally Posted by loosekanen View Post
Did you watch Monfils today?? He's playing great tennis. The "If all goes well" comment is deceiving. There IS a chance he loses to an in form Monfils and it's a good one. However, I will indulge you:

To get 9/1 on a 3 play parlay you would need, for example, (an admittedly under the weather Nadal) to receive -300 against Monfils, then +150 against Murray and +200 against Fed.

These lines, that you would need, are skewed WAY toward Rafa. Even healthy I don't think he's that good. However, if you have a wild hair up your ass feel free to bet him to the moon. I just disagree there is any value in it.


Also, this thread has gotten away from HappyGuy dropping tennis knowledge bombs on us. Let's let his current dominance be and stop derailing his thread. He's making a few of us some really good money.
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Old 09-08-2009, 07:09 PM   #209
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Nadal wont beat Del Potro if he manages to win tonight .
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Old 09-08-2009, 07:11 PM   #210
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Got on Gonzalez at evens over Tsonga , Gonzalez much better player , Tsonga is all hit or miss and when he doesnt get a lot of first serves in Gonzalez wins points most of the time on 2nd serve .
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Old 09-08-2009, 08:11 PM   #211
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Got Nadal at 12/1 outright which was the highest it went on betfair for max at ~350$. He was 12.5 nealy all day yesterday though, and only dropped to the 8-10 range after Murray lost. It's also good if Gonzalez wins since Tsonga should pose a greater threat to Nadal on deco turf imo. Del Potro vs. Nadal is pretty even imo, I don't think Del Potro should be such a fav. even with the Nadal's injury... his last two wins don't prove that much.
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Old 09-09-2009, 01:32 AM   #212
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Great performance by Nadal , amazing quality in the first 2 sets , best match on hardcourts I've seen in ages , atleast the two sets but Monfils clearly ran out of gas at the end .
Gonna stop betting on over 9.5 games in the first sets , three times in a row I've lost on 3-6 sets .

Last 2 days : 5-1 +20.36 units
Posted Record : 51-21 +102.33 units



9 September

Wager Type : WTA fav ML

US Open 2009 QF


Start time : 09:45 AM PST

Kateryna Bondarenko vs Yanina Wickmayer


My pick is Kateryna Bondarenko to win

Odds : 1.67

Where : unibet

10 units to win 6.7 units


I see no reason for not betting on Bondrenko once again after easy 6-0 6-0 last round at - 120 . First of all those two have met 3 weeks ago on similar surface and Bondarenko has won 7-6 6-2 .
Basically Bondarenko was better in every category but first serve % , not surprised at all tho , Wickmayer likes to keep her first serve percentage way over 65% which makes her first serves less effective the way she takes the pace off and tries to land as many first serves in as possible .
Huge difference on both 1st and 2nd serve points won , 13% difference on 1st and 20% difference on 2nd serve points won ! This pretty much should sum up who is the better player of the two , also Wickmayer was very bad in her previous match against Kvitova and only countless unforced errors from Kvitova got her through . Hopefully Bondarenko doesn't crumble under pressure , she is the better player of the two .

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Old 09-09-2009, 02:49 AM   #213
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Keep it up, happy!!!!
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Old 09-09-2009, 03:42 AM   #214
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

hey looking for help wanting to get $100 on TOMIC (number 3 seed) to win the junior boys singles tournament, at odds of 6-1...or in his 2nd round match tonight vs the local american kid of 1.4

nowhere i have ever come across that frames a market on juniors if you know of any please point me in the right direction.

(i also remember a thread that used to be on 2plus2 that members could bet between themself's but i havent signed on for 3 plus months and can no longer remember where it was..is this still around) if anyone wanted to take me up on this bet i would be very happy
please help
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Old 09-09-2009, 06:24 AM   #215
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Backed at 1.63 on the fair.

Quality picks so far, managed to cover my nfl pre season losses the other day with one of them.


Keep up the solid work!
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Old 09-09-2009, 11:01 AM   #216
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

9 September

Wager Type : ATP Doubles

US Open 2009 Men Doubles SF

Start time : 08:15 AM PST ( in around 20 minutes )

B. Bryan/M. Bryan vs L. Dlouhy/L. Paes

Who will win games 5 and 6 in the 1st set ?

Who will win games 7 and 8 in the 1st set ?

My pick is ONE GAME EACH

Odds : 1.60

Where : betandwin

3 units to win 1.8 units and 3 units to win 1.8 units

Was just looking at live coupon on betandwin and found this gem .

LOL , interesting odds , considering Bryans haven't been broken at all in 4 matches and Dlouhy with Paes are a very solid team as well , cant see many breaks in this match especially not in the first set . Just need 4 holds between game 5 and 8 to cash both .
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Old 09-09-2009, 11:28 AM   #217
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Hey HappyGuy, do you see any value in taking Verdasco for a 3.4? He won against a strong Haas and had a good game against Isner.

Thanks for your thoughts
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Old 09-09-2009, 12:21 PM   #218
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by suttinator View Post
Hey HappyGuy, do you see any value in taking Verdasco for a 3.4? He won against a strong Haas and had a good game against Isner.

Thanks for your thoughts
Haas was all over him and should have won easily if he wasn't such a headcase and beating Isner is nothing special at all , just because another limited player like Roddick has lost to him doesn't mean much .
Djokovic should win but odds are way too low , I will be waiting for atleast 1.50 in-play .
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Old 09-09-2009, 12:33 PM   #219
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyGuy View Post
Haas was all over him and should have won easily if he wasn't such a headcase and beating Isner is nothing special at all , just because another limited player like Roddick has lost to him doesn't mean much .
Djokovic should win but odds are way too low , I will be waiting for atleast 1.50 in-play .
Ok thanks. Agreed with Isner. Just thinking the match will be way closer than the odds say.
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Old 09-09-2009, 12:50 PM   #220
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

9 September

Wager Type : ATP Doubles

US Open 2009 Men Doubles SF

Start time : in around 5 hours

Max Mirnyi/Andy Ram vs Mahesh Bhupathi/Mark Knowles

My pick is Max Mirnyi/Andy Ram to win

Odds : 2.5

Where : sportingbet


3 units to win 4.5 units


This is really a 50/50 match , I feel like Max and Andy have a slight edge here , even tho they have lost twice to them in the last month , which worries me a little bit but they have won the previous 2 meetings so head to head is tied at 2-2 . I remember their match in Washington month ago and Bhupathi with Knowles have won 7-6(6) 2-6 10-7 , Max and Andy had several chances to win the first set , won 2nd easily and decider is always a lottery . This time they will play with ADV rules and no 10 points 3rd set decider which makes it very even match . In my opinion Andy and Max are better players but all 4 are very experienced so this might be very close and decided in tiebreaks .
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Old 09-09-2009, 03:14 PM   #221
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Unreal ... loses first set 5-7 and then 4-1 up , breakpoint for 5-1 two breaks up lead , doesn't convert , 4-2 , loses her own serve 4-3 , 15-40 and has 2 breakpoints again for 5-3 lead and loses 4 points in a row 4-4 , gets broken once again 4-5 and 4-6 loss , gotta love that pathetic performance losing 5 games in a row .
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Old 09-09-2009, 03:21 PM   #222
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyGuy View Post
Unreal ... loses first set 5-7 and then 4-1 up , breakpoint for 5-1 two breaks up lead , doesn't convert , 4-2 , loses her own serve 4-3 , 15-40 and has 2 breakpoints again for 5-3 lead and loses 4 points in a row 4-4 , gets broken once again 4-5 and 4-6 loss , gotta love that pathetic performance losing 5 games in a row .
I think I have followed your picks 3 times now (followed you on Bondarenko today). I am 0-3 so I guess I am just some sort of jinx or something.
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Old 09-09-2009, 03:27 PM   #223
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Lol

I was praying she would convert that breakpoint for 5-1 lead and set would have been over , wasted her chances on 15-40 as well for 5-3 lead and could have served for the set . Hopefully Verdasco and Wozniacki win later .
Wasted possible profit from outright market trading with that loss :-/

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Old 09-09-2009, 06:46 PM   #224
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Who are you guys betting on Oudin or Wozniacki ?
I feel like Oudin's run is going to end tonight , Wozniacki is not known for a lot of unforced errors and that's how Oudin has won her matches so far .
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Old 09-09-2009, 07:02 PM   #225
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Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyGuy View Post
Who are you guys betting on Oudin or Wozniacki ?
I feel like Oudin's run is going to end tonight , Wozniacki is not known for a lot of unforced errors and that's how Oudin has won her matches so far .
i would LOVE for her to win but i don't see that happening for the exact reasons you stated..
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