Tennis Betting Thread

[RosieTheGreat]

DJ + Rafa haesnt ended yet :P

[RosieTheGreat]

So EP36 does these writeups for a lot of tournaments. I find them very useful. I DID NOT WRITE THIS!!!!

AEGON Championships [Queens Club]

Andy Murray is the top seed and defending Champion. He has won this two of the last three years. Tsonga comes in as the #2 [Finalist in 2011], Tipsarevic #3 and Simon #4. In the ten year history of this event, the #1 or #2 seed has won the title seven times. Lleyton Hewitt is 32-6 at this event in his career. In the last two tourneys, qualifiers are 4-4 in 1st round matches. Wildcards are 3-5 in 1st round matches - one of the wins being WC v. WC. Seeds have lost three matches in the 1st round in that span. This tournament generally has one surprise semifinalist.

Murray Quarter
Murray has a bye and then gets Mahut or Garcia-Lopez. F.Lopez is the seed in the bottom portion of this bracket. Don't sleep on the Flodonis here. He's got some grass prowess, making the Wimbledon QFs last year. Modest success at this tournament, but a pretty navigatable draw. Kevin Anderson is really the only other recognizable player in this draw and his grass court #s are so-so. Even with the back questions, Murray has to be looked at as the favorite to get to the semis. Lopez should meet him in the quarters assuming his give a **** level is decent. The other plays in this portion of the draw are a who's who of people I wouldn't spend a penny on.

Simon Quarter
Simon sits #4, Andy Roddick comes in #7. This quarter has some intrigue. Gulbis, Malisse & Nalbandian are all floating around here. Simon is decent, but not great on this surface. Roddick would be an interesting watch @ Queens Club, but his season has been ****. This has been a surface that would normally favor Roddick - but the confidence cannot be high. His draw isn't difficult. So if ever there was a chance for him to wake up, perhaps this is it. Still, that seems a dartboard shot at best. Nalbandian is in the same boat. This a good surface for him, but his game is lost right now. The guy to watch IMO is Malisse. He's been solid on grass [43-23] and always seems to come to play on the surface. It could come down to Malisse v. Simon in the 3rd round to decide who wins this quarter. The Bogomolov Fade Train takes an interesting first round stop against Klizan - the Challenger Clay King of 2012. Klizan has just one match of grass court experience, so it will be an interesting one to see. Bogomolov probably will be a dumbtard favorite price-wise. A potential surprise could be Bemelmans. Big serve and he played in Nottingham last week.

Tipsarevic Quarter
Cilic looms on the bottom portion of this quarter. Tipsarevic has some **** issues getting into England, but I think is good to go. He's been a Wimbledon bust, but runs hot at the Grass build-ups with a Finals run in Eastbourne last year and s-Hertogenbosch in 2010. His Queens Club record though is not great. He also could face Tursunov in Round 2. Tursunov running well @ Nottingham this week before losing in the Final. Cilic is decent on grass, but I think a candidate for an upset at some point in his 1st match or two. Most intriguing 1st round match easily is Karlovic v. Hewitt. Both have seen better days, but both have good grass pedigrees. I'd give Hewitt the edge as he looked decent @ the French Open, but just did not have the fitness to go four-five sets. A best of 3 should better suit him and Dr.Ivo has been out of the office for most of 2012. Baghdatis & Lu also float around in this bracket. Lu has been better at Wimbledon than these smaller tourneys. Baggy has a game suited to a faster grass court. Don't be surprised if he knocks out Cilic and makes the QFs.

Tsonga Quarter
Benneteau is the other seed in this bracket. The big question for me is can Tsonga put the Djokovic choke behind him? Honestly even with the mental questions, there is no reason Tsonga shouldn't be in the semis this week. His draw is simple with a wildcard first-up and just nothing dangerous. Benneteau showed great resilience to come back from injury to play @ the French Open. Benny has been okay on grass, so is his body holds up, he could win a couple. Querrey and Istomin float. Their serves alone make them dangerous. Querrey v. O.Rochus should be a good 1st rounder.

1st Round Upset Watch
Kunitsyn over Lu
Klizan over Bogomolov, Jr.
Bolelli over Gulbis

Semifinalists: Murray, Malisse, Tipsarevic, Tsonga
Championship: Murray over Tipsarevic

Futures Options
Tipsarevic +700
Tsonga +240
Malisse +7500

I think taking both Tipsarevic & Tsonga should give you a finalist. I find it very difficult to see one of those two not being in the final. Murray @ +120 is a bit short to me given his back issues. If healthy, he should/can win this - but that's not a given.

[BrianLaverty]

Yeah, EP is very solid with his writeups before tourneys.... Hes been struggling with his day to day plays, but he's a great guy and I always root for him.

LOVED the way Querrey looked today... definitely taking him at -128 vs. Istomin.

Any update on FLopez's injury from RG? All I heard was that he was focusing on getting ready for Wimbledon... Pretty ridiculous that he is a favorite and is actually being bet up (from -140 to -165) despite no word on his injury at all. Gotta think its a smart play to take Darcis strictly based on the injury, and the fact that he beat Lopez last year in the DC. Will see if the line keeps moving up, and try to get Darcis if it goes higher then +150.

Roddick at -310? I understand he's always been great on grass, but just can't see him as a 3 to 1 favorite over anyone at this point. Might make a small play fading him....

I watched Baghdatis match today and he looked uninspired and bored. Gil probably deserved to win the match, but played horrible in the 3rd. Rosol's serve looked dominant today vs. Hanescu and he won all but 6 first serve points. Lots of value in Rosol at +300.... Especially considering he took Baggy to 3 sets in January, and that was when Baggy was in much better form.


As for Halle, haven't followed it as much as Queens.... but will be playing the over 22.5 big between Youhzny and Dolgopolov.... Both players seem to constantly play long matches, and both of there H2Hs when to 3 sets. Don't really get the -270 Youhzny line, but I prefer over in matches that involve Dolgo... Nothing else really looks good.

[dangerfish]

I really like Rosol tomorrow as well.

[dangerfish]

Ward is a fun bet at 23-1, Tsonga with the brutal loss last week has to be hurting. I would classify this one as "gambling"

[BrianLaverty]

Tsonga is playing Baker, a local wildcard..... If he was playing Ward, I'd definitely be taking Ward.

[BrianLaverty]

Rosol $$$$
Youhzny Over $$$$
Querrey $$$$

Lost on Darcis.

Didn't end up fading Roddick


Good day

[RosieTheGreat]

Graded a win for me

[BrianLaverty]

Lol..... same for me... thank god nalbandian is such a moron.

[wamplerr]

The ball girl must be a robot.

[mackem790]

Originally Posted by wamplerr

The ball girl must be a robot.

Nah, they just train em well over here

[BrianLaverty]

Time for Wimbledon!!

[dangerfish]

I'm on the following tomorrow

Stepanek 1.40 over Stakhovsky
Fognini over Llodra 3.00
Lorenzi +7 games 1.971

Overs Total games

Granollers/Toicki over 40 1.92
Mayer/Monaco over 38.5 2.06
Russel/Maceiras over 38.5 1.94
Darcis/Ruffin over 38.5 1.909
Berloq/Bemelmans over 39.5 1.94
Bolleli/Janowicz over 39.5 1.84

Under Total games

Blake / Becker under 35 2.02

So hopefully some long matches tomorrow, GL all.

[BrianLaverty]

My bets for tomorrow:

- Ryan Harrison -140

- Leonardo Mayer +4.5 -106

- Ruben Bemelmans -159

- Fabio Fognini +160 *****POD******

- Menendez-Maceiras/Russell Over 38.5 +101

- Sabine Lisicki -143

- Vera Zvonareva +120

[DoesANice]

has zvonareva been injured for the last few weeks, she didnt play roland garros.

think bathel's grass game is weak enough atm to not need to worry about zvonevera's lack of play, she made the final in 2010 after all..