Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-05-2009, 05:36 AM   #76
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by dangerfish View Post
Happy Guy--you have really been running hot and doing and excellent job with your analysis. I noticed you post a lot of last minute picks, if you are doing that just to document your results that makes sense but if your are going to get into the tout service business then you need to organize your picks so that your followers have some chance of actually betting them., all in all nice run.
Thanks for the kind words . I didn't really think anybody was reading this thread , let alone tailing my plays . I feel like when I post my plays on a forum messege board I put a little bit of pressure on myself in case anybody is really going to tail my play which results in me trying to pick the best possible play . I've used to make around 80-100 wagers in a week but after reviewing them at the end of the day I realized most of them weren't very smart investments .
No , I am not trying to get into the tout thing , don't even think I would have enough time for this . I am betting on european soccer , european ice hockey and tennis full time , it's just that all big soccer leagues are on a break at the moment and ice hockey hasn't started yet either .

I will try to post the plays earlier , atleast 3 hours before the start time .

Stosur vs Bartoli - Stosur has lost in 3 sets and Bartoli ended up winning the whole tournament with a win against Venus Williams in the finals . After the close first set it looked like Stosur was in cruise mode winning the 2nd set 6-1 , however she has lost the last set with same 1-6 score . Don't think I will be in hurry to bet on Stosur again , big time choker she is .

Rodionova vs Peer - Rodionova has retired 5-7 1-4 and 2 breaks down so this wager is a void , no money paid out , pinnaclesports is a 2 sets must completed bookie .

Lisicki has won the match in 3 sets but Krumm easily covered the handicap for combined 17-16 games in her favor .

Na Li vs Morita - Morita has retired 0-6 0-2 down , was away so not really sure what happened there . This bet is also a void because match must be completed for total games and game handicap bets to stand .

This Peer void in a very likely win evened out quickly in what would have been a loss with Morita on games handicap .


Posted Record : 9-1 +31.90 units
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2009, 07:30 AM   #77
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

5 August

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Legg Mason Tennis Classic R2

Start time :04:05 PM PST ( in around 12 hours )

Andy Roddick vs Benjamin Becker

My pick is OVER 20.5 GAMES

Odds : - 120 and - 129 ( had to place twice cuz of $250 limit )

Where : pinnaclesports

6.22 units to win 5 units


First official match for Andy Roddick in exact 1 month since his loss to Roger Federer at Wimbledon .
H2H is 2-0 for Andy Roddick , both matches on hardcourt , last one 2007 in Memphis 7-6 6-4 ( 23 games )
Becker won 91% (60/66) on his first serve against Ginepri in the first round with 27 aces , all 3 sets have ended in tiebreak with Benjamin Becker winning two of them for combined max games possible - 39 .
I think Andy could be a bit rusty after such a lay-off and Becker has served strong lately . Last week he lost to John Isner 7-6 7-6 in LA tournament .
What we need for over 20.5 games :
Either a 3 set match or a 7-6 set which is what I am counting on . If there is one tiebreak set we would just need 8 more games to cover this line - 6:2 set .
Most likely result is Andy Roddick to win in straight set so in this case we would look for a result like 7-6 , 6-2 ; 7-5 , 6-3 which I think is doable .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2009, 09:29 AM   #78
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

5 August

Wager Type : WTA fav ML

LA Womens Tennis R2

Start time :11:05 AM PST ( in around 5 hours )

Sharar Peer vs Nadia Petrova

My pick is Nadia Petrova to win

Odds : 1.33 ( - commision )

Where : betfair

10 units to win 3 units


Way too many things speak for Petrova here . Neither is in great form but if Petrova is only losing to high ranked players like Azarenka , Zvonareva or Dementieva ; Shahar Peer struggles against about anybody , her serving stats are horrible in the last 12 monthes , her record is 14-12 in the last 12 monthes compared to 18-8 of Petrova . I've placed money on Peer in the previous round at - 200 because it has looked like there was some value against a mediocre player like Rodionova but this almost went wrong . Peer was horrible once again but Rodionava seemed to struggle with her health and had to take timeout in the first set after this timeout she went 1-6 games and retired in the 2nd . Petrova beat Mattek last week and then lost to Sharapova , seems like all of those 4 players struggle at the moment but in my opinion Peer has it worse than the other 3 because even on her best day her serve was never a real weapon to gain cheap points . Petrova is a tall player with solid serve , her first one is a very big factor especially against someone like Peer who is out of form .
Head to head is 4-0 for Petrova , 8-0 sets for insane combined total games of 48 vs 15 . They've met at Wimbledon this year around 1 month ago and Petrova has won 6-3 6-2 . A lot of juice to lay so probably better choice to parlay it with some other matches .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2009, 10:51 AM   #79
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

5 August

Wager Type : WTA fav ML

LA Womens Tennis R2

Start time :11:05 AM PST ( in around 3 hours )

Jie Zheng vs Elena Vesnina

My pick is Elena Vesnina to win

Odds : 1.86


Where : unibet


5 units to win 4.3 units


I think there is a bit of value betting on Vesnina here . Zheng struggled in the first round against Savchuk who is very bad on those courts . Vesnina has better serve and should be able to get more looks for breaks on Zheng' service games .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2009, 11:08 AM   #80
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

5 August

Wager Type : WTA fav ML

LA Womens Tennis R2

Start time :12:05 PM PST ( in around 4 hours )

Maria Kirilenko vs Samantha Stosur


My pick is Samantha Stosur to win

Odds : 1.30

Where : paddypower

10 units to win 3 units


Will give Stosur another chance here even tho she did cost me money against Bartoli . This looks like the easiest bet today , I will ignore their 2-2 head to head because Stosur is totally different player in the last few monthes than she was at the time they've met .
Kirilenko has very weak serve which Stosur should easily break a lot of times . Kirilenko mainly plays on clay courts and does win here and there in smaller tournaments against weak field but this is a different animal here . Stosur has one of the best serves in women tennis at the moment and doesn't lack confidence like Kirilenko . Maria has been broken 17 times in her last 3 matches and faced 32 breakpoints . Stosur has lost her serve just once in the first round match on only breakpoint faced .
Anything other than rather easy 2-0 sets win for Stosur would surprise me .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2009, 11:09 AM   #81
aapocketaa
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 297
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyGuy View Post
5 August

Wager Type : WTA fav ML

LA Womens Tennis R2

Start time :11:05 AM PST ( in around 5 hours )

Sharar Peer vs Nadia Petrova

My pick is Nadia Petrova to win

Odds : 1.33 ( - commision )

Where : betfair

A lot of juice to lay so probably better choice to parlay it with some other matches .
What other matches are you parlaying this with....thanks
aapocketaa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2009, 11:11 AM   #82
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by aapocketaa View Post
What other matches are you parlaying this with....thanks
Stosur is easily the best choice to parlay it with .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2009, 11:40 AM   #83
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Odds suggest Fish might be injured , no way he should be - 190 against someone like Petzschner on home soil and those quick courts .
Also Troicki vs Gicquel from around - 170 all the way down to - 105 , pinnacle just took it off right now .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2009, 11:43 AM   #84
aapocketaa
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 297
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

happy....sent u a PM....is pinnacle sports off limits for the US? when i go to signup i dont see United States on the country list...
aapocketaa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2009, 12:05 PM   #85
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by aapocketaa View Post
happy....sent u a PM....is pinnacle sports off limits for the US? when i go to signup i dont see United States on the country list...
They don't allow US customers anymore , 5dimes does offer total games and handicaps as well but their odds are slightly lower .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2009, 12:55 PM   #86
agdci981
banned
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 10,078
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

HappyGuy, very nice job thus far with your picks. However, I have a question....I have noticed that I believe all your "To Wins" are on chalk. Do you not see much value in dogs in tennis? Or is it just coincidence with the small sample size you have posted? I enjoy gaining knowledge about all sports and the nuances regarding betting them and this question just crossed my mind. Thanks and keep up the good work!
agdci981 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2009, 01:20 PM   #87
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by agdci981 View Post
HappyGuy, very nice job thus far with your picks. However, I have a question....I have noticed that I believe all your "To Wins" are on chalk. Do you not see much value in dogs in tennis? Or is it just coincidence with the small sample size you have posted? I enjoy gaining knowledge about all sports and the nuances regarding betting them and this question just crossed my mind. Thanks and keep up the good work!
I do bet in-play at betfair on underdogs because ''value'' is not the same as lets say in MMA where your underdog can cash with a knockout or submission and it's money in the bank . They might keep it close but in the end of the day value or not it's a loss , so I rather start with the underdogs who I think will trade lower in-play . Kleybanova + 120 and Craybas + 220 so far , should trade way lower but counting on Kleybanova to win .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2009, 04:38 PM   #88
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

5 August

Wager Type : WTA Handicap

LA Womens Tennis R2

Start time :2:00 PM PST

Ai Sugiyama vs Agnieszka Radwanska


My pick is Ai Sugiyama + 5.5 GAMES

Odds : - 117

Where : pinnaclesports

5.85 units to win 5 units
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2009, 04:32 AM   #89
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Bad day , but not worried , only bad play was most likely Vesnina to beat Zheng on a coin flip match should have played over games .

Quick one for tonight before I go out to work out .

6 August

Wager Type : WTA Underdog ML

LA Womens Tennis R16

Start time :11:00 AM PST ( probably gonna be moved to later time spot )

Nadia Petrova vs Flavia Pennetta


My pick is Flavia Pennetta to win

Odds : 1.95

Where : https://www.expekt.com

10 units to win 9.5 units


Very big value play today . Petrova lucked out yesterday to win as - 330 favorite against an out form Peer but I think this is the end here . Petrova will be asked to many questions by Pennetta who is going to bring few too many balls back in play and force Petrova to play 1 extra shot . H2H is also in Pennetta's favor 4-1 . Wouldn't be surprised if by the start time Pennetta was sitting at around 1.75 .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2009, 10:30 AM   #90
calvinyeo
grinder
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 632
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Keep up the good work, i am a big supporter here
calvinyeo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2009, 01:28 PM   #91
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Now I am worried a little bit ... it indeed turned out to be a big public play driving the odds from 1.95 to 1.70 , hopefully this is not a trap .

Two matches in 40 minutes , think one cant go wrong laying Zvonareva 1.54 at betfair for in-play trading .
Zvonareva is in more than suspect form since coming back from the injury , Wickmayer isn't great but this going to be close as the odds suggest , in regular shape Zvonareva would be around - 450 and higher favorite . Would be shocked if one couldn't trade out at evens during the match .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2009, 02:39 PM   #92
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyGuy View Post
Now I am worried a little bit ... it indeed turned out to be a big public play driving the odds from 1.95 to 1.70 , hopefully this is not a trap .

Two matches in 40 minutes , think one cant go wrong laying Zvonareva 1.54 at betfair for in-play trading .
Zvonareva is in more than suspect form since coming back from the injury , Wickmayer isn't great but this going to be close as the odds suggest , in regular shape Zvonareva would be around - 450 and higher favorite . Would be shocked if one couldn't trade out at evens during the match .

HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2009, 05:29 PM   #93
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

6 August

Wager Type : ATP Handicap

Legg Mason Tennis Classic R16


Start time :04:00 PM PST

Ivo Karlovic vs Somdev Devvarman

My pick is Somdev Devvarman + 3.5 GAMES

Odds : - 119 and - 130

Where : pinnaclesports

6.22 units to win 5 units





6 August

Wager Type : ATP Handicap

Legg Mason Tennis Classic R16


Start time :04:05 PM PST

Andy Roddick vs Sam Querrey

My pick is Sam Querrey+ 4 GAMES

Odds : - 132 and - 145

Where : pinnaclesports

6.92 units to win 5 units




Both matches should very close and most likely decided in the tiebreaks .
Karlovic will be almost impossible to break in my opinion but the kid he is going to play knows how to serve as well and Karlovic is one of the weakest returners in the circuit .

Sam should hold his own against Roddick as well , I remember watching their match in february and Andy has won in 3 sets but it was pretty close affair . 6-7 4-6 would still do it .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2009, 07:46 AM   #94
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Posted Record : 13-5 +29.11 units



Pennetta has won without much trouble at starting 1.95 odds in the morning and closed as low as 1.60 .

Quote:
Sam should hold his own against Roddick as well , I remember watching their match in february and Andy has won in 3 sets but it was pretty close affair . 6-7 4-6 would still do it .
Exactly what happened , Roddick won 7-6 6-4 .

Karlovic has won rather easily , Somdev was plain horrible , tanked this match .


7 August

Wager Type : WTA fav ML

LA Womens Tennis QF

Start time :02:20 PM PST

Jie Zheng vs Samantha Stosur

My pick is Samantha Stosur to win

Odds : - 185


Where : pinnaclesports


18.5 units to win 10 units


Going to trust Stosur once again . She is the better play on those courts and I am not rating Zheng's win over Safina yesterday at all , plain horrible match . Stosur has easily beaten Ana Ivanovic 6-3 6-2 yesterday and should enjoy a very solid advantage on serve against Zheng who likes to have her first serve percentage at around 65 % mark but the other hand it also makes her serve more predictable and easier to return because she doesn't risk a lot .
If Stosur isn't on a real off day she should have no problem winning this match , not only Zheng is not in good form but she will also be in big power disadvantage .


7 August

Wager Type : WTA fav ML

LA Womens Tennis QF

Start time :09:30 PM PST

Vera Zvonareva vs Flavia Pennetta

My pick is Flavia Pennetta to win

Odds : 1.72


Where : paddypower


10 units to win 7.2 units


Again sticking with my horses here .
Pennetta has looked good just as I thought she would against Petrova , dropping her serve just once on the only allowed breakpoint which is very impressive even with Petrova not being in form .
Zvonareva had a tough match yesterday and coming back from an injury I have to question her fitness for this match today and overall motivation .
Even if she is fully fit which I highly doubt , Pennetta is in good form and a tough opponent to play against on any surface . Also she has some points to defend her being the runner up 2008 .
I kind of don't like my position betting at paddypower where the match has to be completed for all bets to stand but those are by far the best odds I could find .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2009, 06:40 PM   #95
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

7 August

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Legg Mason Tennis Classic QF

Start time :04:05 PM PST

Andy Roddick vs Ivo Karlovic

My pick is OVER 9.5 GAMES FIRST SET

Odds : 1.40


Where : unibet

5 units to win 2 units


Just found this one . Shouldn't take longer than 20 minutes for this one to cash , both Roddick and Karlovic will most likely win 4 games each to 0 and 15 all the time .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2009, 07:22 PM   #96
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Roddick got broken by Karlovic for first time in 5 matches , so sad .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2009, 07:39 PM   #97
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Karlovic broken , 4-4 now and cashed with some luck .


7 August

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Legg Mason Tennis Classic QF


Start time :05:30 PM PST ( in around 50 minutes or later )

Tomas Berdych vs John Isner

My pick is OVER 9.5 GAMES FIRST SET

Odds : 1.50

Where : www.unibet.com

5 units to win 2.5 units


Another value play here , Isner will be close to impossible to break and Berdych has strong serve as well , Isner clearly not known as good returner .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-08-2009, 06:56 PM   #98
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

8 August

Wager Type : ATP Total Games

Legg Mason Tennis Classic SF

Start time :04:05 PM PST

John Isner vs Andy Roddick

My pick is OVER 21.5 GAMES

Odds : 1.61

Where : bet365

9.75 units to win 6 units


Too busy with UFC , forgot to post this earlier , match in 10 minutes . They will have that match for in-play betting in case anybody wants to try their luck by tailing this play .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2009, 10:09 AM   #99
HappyGuy
banned
 
HappyGuy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,111
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Posted Record : 17-6 +49.31 units

10 August

Wager Type : WTA Games Handicap

WTA Western & Southern Women's Open R1


Start time :08:05 AM PST

Victoria Azarenka vs Kaia Kanepi


My pick is Kaia Kanepi + 6 GAMES

Odds : - 102

Where : pinnaclesports

5.1 units to win 5 units

Line is way too high in my opinion , other than her loss against Sharapova Azarenka hasn't played in ages . Kaia is in bad form lately but against Safarova she has shown some impovements last week . This line is very big , even if Kaia doesn't cover this line with a loss like 3-6 2-6 it's still worth the investment at close to even odds . I've watched their only match which was on clay in may this year and Kaia did hang tough in there only losing by 4 games .
HappyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2009, 01:14 PM   #100
calvinyeo
grinder
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 632
Re: HappyGuy's tennis plays

Good job on Kanepi, awaiting your next selection!
calvinyeo is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:48 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ę 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online