After looking at prices I am on Guccione 1.74 Ginepri 1.71 Dancevic evens. Kendrick was a bit too short for my liking.

Posted Record : 5-0 +23.90 units

Ginepri will have a day off and play Safin on Tuesday I believe .
Will need to have a closer look but I don't know how a semi retired Safin can be a threat to Ginepri who has easily beaten 2 big serves in a row this week with Isner and Querrey . Safin is somewhat similar type of player like Querrey but in bad form and ready to retire this year .

The more I think about this the more I am warming up to Ginepri and I really think Guccione matches up well with Kim. In fact, I can't think of a worse matchup for Kim.

This tournament in Croatia probably going to have a lot of fixes , in fact I wouldn't be surprised if Cuevas lost to Dodig + 300 but this is just a speculation , this guy has beaten Andreev and Gulbis in croatian tournament earlier this year .

PS : now I have looked at the draw , there aren't many suspect players in it but still a few .

I will try and check out the volume on those matches, I hope that is not the case but I would not be shocked.

Looks like the first fix is around the corner ... Hernych vs Cipolla bit later today , Hernych from 1.90 to 1.20 ...

Yo Happy Guy I like Tennis Betting (usually have a flutter at the start of the week on each ATP event) but never really do any match betting. You seem to know your stuff though how do you spot a possible fix and which players should i avoid if im worried about possible fixes? also was the kohlschreiber game today a fix or did he just play bad?

Watching pre and in play betting on betfair is normally a give away. Normally a price will nosedive from what it opens at, or some really shady in play betting where the price will go against what is actually happening in the game.

I arbed the Kohlschriber game today and didn't see any irregular price movements.

Anyone see Ginepri losing to Safin? This looks way too good, kind of scaring me. Please make a case for Safin if you can.

Sorry , by fix I don't necessarily mean players are going to profit from the match by betting . Sometimes people find out about injuries and move the odds .
I had this feeling about Kohlschreiber losing because against Cuevas in Hamburg he didn't look interested to play tennis at all during their match . Same thing yesterday , Crivoi showed up to play and win , Kohlschreiber did not .

28 July

Wager Type : ATP fav ML

Allianz Suisse Open R1 Tennis

Start time :01:35 AM PST ( in around 2 hours )

Farrukh Dustov vs Ivan Navarro

My pick is Ivan Navarro to win

Odds : - 280

Where :5dimes

8.4 units to win 3 units


Dustov has only played one ATP main draw match in his career , this will be his second time .
Navarro is a solid player who likes to end points quickly going to the net . Had solid results recently , taking a set off Davydenko and won against Robredo in straight sets .
Last year he made it to the 2nd round here and won the first set against Marin Cilic but losing the next two .
I hope for Navarro to show up and play because Dustov doesn't seem to have the abilities to win a main draw match .

I heard Safin is getting married soon , not sure how focused he is about tennis , he never cared about those smaller tournaments anyway .

29 July

Wager Type : WTA Handicap

Bank of the West Classic R16

Start time :08:30 PM PST ( in around 40 hours )

Daniela Hantuchova vs Agnieszka Radwanska

My pick is Daniela Hantuchova + 4 GAMES

Odds : - 105

Where : pinnaclesports

5.25 units to win 5 units


Going to try this one , Hantuchova gets no respect at all from the bookies . WTA rarely has clean 2-0 set wins and even if Hantuchova is to lose today I think it will be within + 4 . Radwanska had a cake win over Cirstea in the first round but there is nothing to read from it , her performance was most likely as bad as Spadea's 0-6 0-6 loss same day . Hantuchova won a tough one against Wozniak who was the 2008 winner here . This should be closer than 6-3 6-4 for Radwanska .

3-0 Radwanska with 2 breaks up , Hantuchova can't keep the ball in play for more than 2 shots , pretty pathetic . Guess I could just save that money for tomorrow .

Liked this fighting spirit of Hantuchova , once she has stopped making a lot of easy unforced errors Radwanska's pure defending strategy wasn't good enough to win the match .


30 July

Wager Type : ATP fav ML

Allianz Suisse Open R16 Tennis

Start time :06:05 AM PST ( in around 3 hours )

Ivan Navarro vs Nicolas Kiefer

My pick is Nicolas Kiefer to win

Odds : - 239

Where : pinnaclesports

11.95 units to win 5 units


Kiefer should have the advantage in pretty much every department of the game . Navarro does like to serve and volley so does Kiefer and has the better serve to do it plus Kiefer has great record against s&v players .
In general Kiefer is very bad match up for someone like Navarro , only worry would be Kiefer not trying to win the match but if he didn't bother to play in this tournament he would have lost to Acasuso in the previous round .

Tennis is the only sport I bet(or should bet) I will keep and eye on this thread.

Scoreboard stuck for some reason , ended on the next point anyway.



N. Kiefer 666
def
I. Navarro 372


Posted Record : 8-0 +36.90 units

2 August

Wager Type : WTA fav ML

Bank of the West Classic SF

Start time :06:05 PM PST ( in around 1 hour )

Marion Bartoli vs Samantha Stosur

My pick is Samantha Stosur to win

Odds : 1.65

Where : expekt ( 1 ball retirement rule )

10 units to win 6.5 units

So much about that '' injury'' ...
Bartoli wins first 6-3 without being broken a single time .

Time to chase with Querrey over Haas at betfair in-play . Haas not looking too hot ...

http://atdhe.net/7635/watch-la-tennis-open

Keep it up Happy....been following and would like to see u post more plays if u have them

Thanks for the kind words . There are a lot of matches I would like to bet on but I've learned the hard way some time ago because you wont know what players are up to : they either show up to play or just lose without putting up much fight and get their paycheck .

3 August

Wager Type : WTA fav ML

LA Womens Tennis R1

Start time :12:30 PM PST ( in around 40 minutes )

Anastasia Rodionova vs Shahar Peer

My pick is Shahar Peer to win

Odds : - 200

Where : pinnaclesports

10 units to win 5 units


I think there is some value in this line , obvious it's influenced by Peer's not so great form this year but even on a bad day she shouldn't have too much trouble against a player of Rodionova's caliber .
They have met once in 2007 on hardcourt and Peer has won 6-1 6-1 .
After looking at Peer's losses this year I have to admit she has only lost to high ranked players like Zvonareva , Dementieva , Pennetta , Wozniacki , Azarenka or Williams . This might explain why she didn't have much success .
On the other hand Rodionova is a very average player with break even record on hardcours compared to 128-65 of Peer . I've only watched her play 2 times and didn't see anything special in her game .
Even on a bad day Peer should be able to beat Rodionava atle
ast 2 out of 3 times .

Somdev Devvarman - 285 over Sugita might be a good one to parlay her with.

4 August

Wager Type : WTA Handicap

LA Womens Tennis R1

Start time :11:05 AM PST ( in around 15 minutes )

Sabine Lisicki vs Kimiko Date Krumm

My pick is Kimiko Date Krumm + 7 GAMES

Odds : - 108

Where : pinnaclesports

5.4 units to win 5 units


Lisicki has lost to Ai Sugiyama here last year , I will take my chances with another asian player against her . Kimiki is going to turn 40 soon but last I've seen her play against Wozniacki she was in great shape and even managed to take a set and lead in the 2nd with break before losing it all .
6-2 6-2 could be a bit too high for a player like Lisicki .

Hopefully nobody retires , this play cant lose anymore after 6-7 first set for Lisicki .

4 August

Wager Type : WTA Handicap

LA Womens Tennis R1

Start time :12:35 PM PST ( in around 10 minutes )

Na Li vs Ayumi Morita

My pick is Ayumi Morita + 6.5 GAMES

Odds : - 116

Where : pinnaclesports

5.8 units to win 5 units


Seems way too high as well , Morita has played tough last week against Bartoli who ended up winning the whole thing . Na Li rarely wins easily and this is Japan vs China thing going on here , think Morita will try to hang in there as long as possible .


Start time wont be in 10 minutes for sure because they play after Czink vs Makarova who are about to start the third set . So I guess pinnacle still going to have their lines up .

Happy Guy--you have really been running hot and doing and excellent job with your analysis. I noticed you post a lot of last minute picks, if you are doing that just to document your results that makes sense but if your are going to get into the tout service business then you need to organize your picks so that your followers have some chance of actually betting them., all in all nice run.