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Tennis Betting Thread Tennis Betting Thread

10-16-2009 , 12:27 AM
I wouldn't say Stepanek was playing well , him and Wawrinka made tons of unforced errors yesterday , he was set down and Wawrinka had a breakpoint for 5-3 lead in the 2nd , was a pretty bad match .
Davydenko has played very well so far and in the last few weeks in general but this guy is not possible to bet on after the shady matches he has had .
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10-16-2009 , 12:30 AM
Damn just got $ onto 5dimes then the line moved! Given your description am thinking betting at +135, you think this is worthwhile?
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10-16-2009 , 12:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyGuy
Don't see anything great in the next 2 hours , Wozniacki vs Wozniak is a no bet , both are good friends and never know the outcome even tho Wozniacki is the favorite but she might let her buddy win in a small tournament .
Davydenko vs Stepanek no bet either , everything speaks for Davydenko but I don't trust this guy after fixed matches he has had .
Stosur vs Craybas , Stosur could win this 6-1 6-1 or she could lose in a tough one , this woman is Tsonga version of WTA , player with no plan B when things don't go well .

16 October

Wager Type : ATP Doubles

Shanghai ATP Masters 1000 Doubles


Scheduled start time : 1:00AM EST ( in 50 minutes )

J.Knowle/J.Melzer vs W.Moodie/D.Norman

My pick is W.Moodie/D.Norman to win

Odds : + 160

Where : 5dimes

2.5 units to win 4 units


In my opinion this is atleast a 50/50 match but more like 55/45 in favor of Moodie and Norman . Surely anything can happen in doubles with no advantage rules but I feel like they are the better team . Melzer and Knowle have just won the tournament last week , all matches have gone to a deciding 3rd set and they had to save a lot of matchpoints , out of their last 9 matches in Asia 8 have gone to a decider ( played to 10 points ) . This should favor Moodie and Norman if it goes to a decider , both are very tall with strong serves . No guarantee when it comes to doubles but matchup and courts speak for the big men duo , thought odds would be around evens or Moodie/Norman as small favorite .
Looks like somebody is in love with them , from adjusted - 175/+135 line back to + 165 now . Added 2.5u to win 4.12u more and hedge at bet365 with J.Knowle/J.Melzer 2:1 sets , odds + 333 , 100 euros ( $149) to win 333 euros ( $500 ) .
Moodie/Norman win = $812 - $149 = + $663
Moodie/Norman lose 1:2 sets = money back
Melzer/Knowle win 2:0 sets = - $649

Like I've said out of last 9 matches Melzer and Knowle played 8 have gone to a deciding 3rd set , they have won 7 times in a 3rd set .
Moodie and Norman serve well enough to ATLEAST win one set here .
I have Moodie and Norman winning this match but this is a great insurance to have if this goes to a third set .
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10-16-2009 , 12:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert
Damn just got $ onto 5dimes then the line moved! Given your description am thinking betting at +135, you think this is worthwhile?
Yes , I think so . Not sure what those odds are based on , Moodie and Norman are ranked # 7 and Melzer/Knowle are # 12 in the doubles rankings . Melzer should be the best player on the court but this guy is a clown and mental midget , if(when) Moodie and Norman start serving bombs he might go insane .
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10-16-2009 , 01:10 AM
http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Ten...y-Preview.aspx

Here interesting read on today's matches and updated rankings , first 8 will play Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London at the end of the year , 3 spots are still for grabs . Soderling and Davydenko have to win today if they want to stay in the race .
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10-16-2009 , 03:10 AM


Didn't look too bad at 6-4 6-6 and 6-6 points with just 2 points to close out the match , lost the point on their serve 6-7* and the second set 6-8 .
Started the decider with a won point on Melzer's serve and that was the only point they managed to win on return :-/ , 8 points and 100 % 1st serve in the decider killed it . Money back on the bet with 2:1 sets Knowle/Melzer insurance but thought it was looking good going into the 2nd tiebreak , Moodie and Norman couldn't find a 1st serve anymore to save their life tho .
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10-16-2009 , 03:35 AM




  • Ljubicic will not be able to keep up with Nadal , he might keep it close in one set but Nadal is way too solid for the old man .
  • Both Olaru and Pennetta like clay courts but there is huge skill difference between them on any surface .
  • Chuang and Raymond both great doubles players , Chang and Zalameda have break even doubles stats and I cant see any other result here but something like 6-3 6-2 .
  • Last one might be closer than the first 3 as the odds suggest but in the end not only are Srebotnik and Grönefeld the better players in singles but they are also better in doubles and have stronger serves by far .
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10-16-2009 , 07:34 AM
Good offer at paddypower , over 9.5 games in the first set Nadal vs Ljubicic at 2.00 odds . Nadal will pick to receive and Ljubicic would pick to serve first so he can afford to get broken once in the first 4 games and still get it over the line with 4-6 set loss , just 100 bet limit tho .
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10-16-2009 , 10:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyGuy
Good offer at paddypower , over 9.5 games in the first set Nadal vs Ljubicic at 2.00 odds . Nadal will pick to receive and Ljubicic would pick to serve first so he can afford to get broken once in the first 4 games and still get it over the line with 4-6 set loss , just 100 bet limit tho .
Nice logic, till Ljubicic got the break!
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10-16-2009 , 11:34 AM


Last match in the parlay , gotta leave for a bit . Traded out some profit quick to reduce the risk .
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10-16-2009 , 12:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyGuy


Last match in the parlay , gotta leave for a bit . Traded out some profit quick to reduce the risk .
what sportsbook is this?
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10-16-2009 , 12:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RickOSU
what sportsbook is this?
betfair
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10-16-2009 , 12:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyGuy
betfair
thx, also do u know of any sites that have free live feeds?
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10-16-2009 , 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RickOSU
thx, also do u know of any sites that have free live feeds?
If you have account at bet365 or betfair they have streams for many tournaments , Shanghai this week . Eurosport shows 2 matches every day from WTA Linz event this week . I believe you would be able to find some live feeds every week at

http://atdhe.net/

http://www.channelsurfing.net/

http://www.justin.tv/directory/sports
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10-17-2009 , 07:49 AM
Posted Record : 61-28 +100.33 units


17 October

Wager Type : WTA Doubles

Generali Ladies Linz Doubles


Scheduled start time : 10:45AM EST

M.Shaughnessy/R.Vinci vs A.Groenefeld/K.Srebotnik

My pick is A.Groenefeld/K.Srebotnik to win

Odds : - 170

Where : 5dimes

4.25 units to win 2.5 units
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10-17-2009 , 12:00 PM
Been a good morning for dogs @ Linz, w/Samantha Stosur (+180), Kvitova (+230), and Wickmayer (+200) all winning out.
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10-17-2009 , 01:11 PM
bit of a sweat!

are these tiebreaks if sets are even standard? thought normally just play 3rd set..?
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10-17-2009 , 01:55 PM
Whew , had to leave for around one hour , was 4-0 in the decider , looks like it got very close in the end tho .
Yes , they have changed it like one year ago for doubles , third set is played to 10 points ( 2 points must advantage if tied at 9-9 ) .
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10-17-2009 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyGuy
I see what you mean but there are more than few important factors here for me to bet against Istomin . First of all this guy doesn't have a big gas tank , after a long set he usually starts showing signs of fatigue , considering Isner is very unlikely to get broken Istomin will have to play a lot of games and worry about holding his own serve . This is his second ATP hardcourts match in the US compared to Isner's 111 matches played within USA .
Istomin's first round opponent Kim is 2-8 in his last 10 matches and we have to consider Istomin has faced 11 breakpoints and was broken 5 times for close to 50 % breakpoints conversation rate for Kevin Kim . Isner has not faced a single breakpoint in his first round match , winning 86 % on his first serve and impressive 72 % 13/18 on his 2nd serve with 15 aces .
I've seen Istomin play several times and there is nothing special about this guy that would make me think he can deal with Isner's big serve better than other opponents also Istomin's serve isn't exactly unbreakable and Isner might have few looks at breaking him .



Very impressive stats in doubles match that has just finished , I haven't seen this win percentage on first serve in doubles matches in a while .
Istomin and his partner have lost in straight sets .



$200,000 roll for tennis bets , 1 unit = $100 , tops I do risk XX do to win 10u .

Where'd you find these stats? Can't find decent tennis stats anywhere
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10-17-2009 , 07:49 PM
HappyGuy, I know you don't like Davydenko but he has been sharp in the tournament. Do you feel he has anything for Nadal or will his service game cost him the match? What price would you consider Davydenko if you trusted him?
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10-17-2009 , 08:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlickMcFavorite
HappyGuy, I know you don't like Davydenko but he has been sharp in the tournament. Do you feel he has anything for Nadal or will his service game cost him the match? What price would you consider Davydenko if you trusted him?
I know a lot of people are betting on Davydenko and will be betting on him tomorrow but there are few things that you got to take into consideration . Most important is the amount of time spent on the court , Nadal didn't have to waste any energy at all today while Davydenko had a very tiring match going all the way to a 3rd set tiebreak . If they had lets say 3 days rest I would pick Davydenko at anything over 2.40 because he is not a good matchup for Nadal on those courts . Also Nadal isn't playing the way he used to play before the injury break after Rolland Garros , he gets bossed around in almost every match ( Blake x2 , Ljubicic , Cilic and even Baghdatis ) and makes more unforced errors than he used to do . If Davydenko is fit tomorrow and not tired from his match today I think he has got a great chance to win but something is telling me he might be weary .
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10-17-2009 , 08:45 PM
Thank you for the analysis. I was thinking Nadal because Davy sometimes loses focus on his serve and gets broken but I am a fish at this so it is very helpful to bounce ideas off of you. I will wait and see if I can get a good price or just stay away.
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10-17-2009 , 08:50 PM
Yes , he does get broken sometimes only cuz he loses focus but it's not like Nadal has an unbreakable serve either .
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10-18-2009 , 07:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thorntoc
Where'd you find these stats? Can't find decent tennis stats anywhere
I save them from official scoreboard http://www.protennislive.com/framese...pworldtour.com
They aren't available on any website as far as I know .
Tennis Betting Thread Quote
10-18-2009 , 08:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyGuy
I save them from official scoreboard http://www.protennislive.com/framese...pworldtour.com
They aren't available on any website as far as I know .
Thanks buddy
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