Tennis Betting Thread

[Money4Web]

Let's keep all tennis betting discussion in this thread !!!

[Donkson]

but I want to make another thread.

[dangerfish]

Anyone have an opinion on Ebden over Davydenko tomorrow @ 4.70 . Neither player in good form seems like a big price given Davydenko's recent form.

[BrianLaverty]

Love the idea.

For the Open de Nice:

- Isner to win +375 (1 Unit)
- Simon to win +375 (1 Unit)
- Ferrero to win +1750 (0.5 Unit)

Isner has an incredibly easy draw to get to the finals, even considering clay is his worst surface. No one can beat him in his section, and in the semis he'll likely be facing Stakhovsky, Tomic or an out of form and injured Monfils. Tons of value on Isner at +375 if not just for heding opportunities later in the tourney..

Bottom half is much tougher.... Almagro should win his quarter, but could face a tough quarterfinal match with either Fognini or Volandri, both of whom are solid on clay. Last section is the toughest by far with Simon, Bellucci, and Ferrero. I see the quarters being Simon/Ferrero... both of which are tough matchups for Almagro.


Had a much longer breakdown of each quarter, but I got signed out and don't want to waste another 15 minutes doing it..... Gonna break down the womens tourneys next.

[BrianLaverty]

Strasbourg....

Barthel +210 (2 Units)
Medina-Garrigues +850 (0.5 Unit)

Not gonna do a writeup because I really don't like the field at all... but these are my only two future bets for it.

[BrianLaverty]

Originally Posted by dangerfish

Anyone have an opinion on Ebden over Davydenko tomorrow @ 4.70 . Neither player in good form seems like a big price given Davydenko's recent form.

Ebden is horrible on clay and in horrible form. He hasn't won a single match on clay since May of 2010. Ebden actually lost in the first round of qualifying in the previous two tourneys without even winning a set. As bad as Davydenko has been lately, he'd have to exceed his suckiness to a new level to lose to Ebden on clay.

[BrianLaverty]

Total matched on BetFair on Djokovic/Nadal match so far: $Matched: USD 4,924,255

So yes.... people bet on tennis.

[wamplerr]

Originally Posted by Money4Web

Let's keep all tennis betting discussion in this thread !!!

Glad to see some tennis interest lately. I'm in the camp of threads like this being chopped up by time of year. Mainly because it sucks to get subscribed to an ongoing thread that I usually have no interest in (see Horse Racing Thread). But maybe I'm in the minority there.

Originally Posted by dangerfish

Anyone have an opinion on Ebden over Davydenko tomorrow @ 4.70 . Neither player in good form seems like a big price given Davydenko's recent form.

I'm in agreement with BrianLaverty. This will be Ebden's first time not having to qualify for the French, so maybe he's putting some extra effort in on Clay, but he's been horrible to date. Davydenko's form hasn't been that bad other than the loss to Farah (another fix?).

I think the current moneyline is correct, -480/+430. I bet these last night:
Davydenko ML (-407)
Davydenko -4.5 Games (-120)
Davydenko -1.5 Sets (-152)
Under 20.5 Games (-104)

The only bet that still has value is probably -4.5 Games (-133)

[DoesANice]

where do u lot find all ur past stats for tennis games??

[wamplerr]

Originally Posted by BrianLaverty

Isner has an incredibly easy draw to get to the finals, even considering clay is his worst surface. No one can beat him in his section, and in the semis he'll likely be facing Stakhovsky, Tomic or an out of form and injured Monfils.

Curious why you like Stakhovsky here. I've got him as the least likely to make the Semis out of his section.

Agree on Isner's draw though, it's a pretty weak field in general.

[dangerfish]

Originally Posted by wamplerr

Glad to see some tennis interest lately. I'm in the camp of threads like this being chopped up by time of year. Mainly because it sucks to get subscribed to an ongoing thread that I usually have no interest in (see Horse Racing Thread). But maybe I'm in the minority there.



I'm in agreement with BrianLaverty. This will be Ebden's first time not having to qualify for the French, so maybe he's putting some extra effort in on Clay, but he's been horrible to date. Davydenko's form hasn't been that bad other than the loss to Farah (another fix?).

I think the current moneyline is correct, -480/+430. I bet these last night:
Davydenko ML (-407)
Davydenko -4.5 Games (-120)
Davydenko -1.5 Sets (-152)
Under 20.5 Games (-104)

The only bet that still has value is probably -4.5 Games (-133)

few things: The comment about Ebden's first time not qualifying for the French is pointless, this is the first year he will not have had to qualify for any slam. He just broke through last year. His results have not been good but neither has Davydenko's. Davy is 1-3 this year on clay with losses to Lorenzi and Farah and of course Nadal. Davy also plays pretty flat which is good for Ebden. Additionally Davy has the yips on his serve when he is struggling it can be ugly. When you start getting close to 5-1 on dogs your usually not going to have a ton of glowing evidence that they are going win it is more a question of how live are they as a dog and imo anyone right now is live vs Davy esp in a small lead up event.

[dangerfish]

Originally Posted by wamplerr

Curious why you like Stakhovsky here. I've got him as the least likely to make the Semis out of his section.

Agree on Isner's draw though, it's a pretty weak field in general.

I don't even think Stakhovsky thinks he will make semis this week.

[dangerfish]

Speaking of Stakhovsky , I like Baker to beat him first round at 1.85

[BrianLaverty]

Baker is getting way too much respect on that line. This is 2nd Atp tournament since 2005... are u really betting him based on challenger success? Who exactly has he beat that impressed you so much?

[dangerfish]

Originally Posted by BrianLaverty

Baker is getting way too much respect on that line. This is 2nd Atp tournament since 2005... are u really betting him based on challenger success? Who exactly has he beat that impressed you so much?

It is a combo of Starkovsky not playing well and Baker with a ton of confidence. There are a lot of other factors but I do not feel like writing a novel. To your point about the fact that Baker's wins have been mostly over lower ranked guys that is a very legit point and it does concern me as well.