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01-25-2016 , 05:43 PM

andr3w321

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,148

Really? No superbowl thread yet?

3:30PM PST

Carolina Panthers -4
Denver Broncos +4

Over under 45

What do you guys like on the coin toss this year? Heads or tails?

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01-25-2016 , 06:06 PM

westswindon

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,345

Panthers all the money.

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01-25-2016 , 06:58 PM

OTPCook

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 132

All in on heads.

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01-25-2016 , 07:03 PM

fansrajoke

adept

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 1,182

Over +45

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01-25-2016 , 10:27 PM

deleted acct

Guest

Posts: n/a

I wanna back the truck up on Carolina but every time I think there's a sure thing I wind up being wrong somehow... Still gonna put a few hundo on them at -4.5. Surely that has to be free money right? Did any of the odds makers actually watch Carolina during the playoffs? They look like they're just out there having a good time lol... Looks so easy. I realize Denver's defence is next level, but Arizona's was pretty serious as well all season long and Cam abused the hell out of them.

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01-25-2016 , 11:31 PM

armyof100

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 89

I feel bad for Peyton, he's going to hit another buzzsaw in a couple of week.

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01-26-2016 , 12:05 AM

Roger Clemens

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,778

Let the arbs begin.

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01-26-2016 , 12:15 AM

DeezNuts

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,016

I have 2u on NFC -104 ML but I just can't not take Den +6 -120 on Bovada and hope for a middle.

So yeah, taking that and the under for smaller (rain possible in forecast).

Probably playing more on props anyways.

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01-26-2016 , 02:54 AM

PFunkaliscious

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 3,061

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNuts

even if it doesn't rain, how slippery will that field be when the fog rolls in off of the bay?

both defenses are very very good. the under seems like a lock if the field turns up slippery.

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01-26-2016 , 10:39 AM

#10

rainmaker1855

adept

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,031

year in and year out it seems like I end up losing/breaking even the actual picks in the SB, but clean up on props. So here are some of the early props out there right now:

http://247sports.com/Gallery/Early-L...-Bets-43134935

Over total FGs? yes please.

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01-26-2016 , 12:49 PM

#11

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by PFunkaliscious

even if it doesn't rain, how slippery will that field be when the fog rolls in off of the bay?

both defenses are very very good. the under seems like a lock if the field turns up slippery.

Definitely can't remember any recent examples of good defenses getting lit up on slippery fields and the games going over by a million points.

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01-26-2016 , 03:26 PM

#12

hfrog355

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 6,404

Booked Denver +4 -110 when it opened. Purely as a "fade the public" move with all the money hammering Carolina.

Will probably fire more traditional bets and definitely a lot of props.

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01-26-2016 , 03:29 PM

#13

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by hfrog355

Booked Denver +4 -110 when it opened. Purely as a "fade the public" move with all the money hammering Carolina.

Will probably fire more traditional bets and definitely a lot of props.

If you truly believe public $ can influence a line maybe it is better to wait until it comes in and has an impact to bet? Just a thought.

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01-26-2016 , 03:57 PM

#14

DeezNuts

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,016

Quote:

Originally Posted by hfrog355

Booked Denver +4 -110 when it opened. Purely as a "fade the public" move with all the money hammering Carolina.

Will probably fire more traditional bets and definitely a lot of props.

Makes no sense to take opening line for dog with 2 weeks until game if you think public is hammering fave.

Den +6 (-120) is available and is much than your line. I have taken some and hoping it goes to -110 to take some more.

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01-26-2016 , 08:20 PM

#15

hfrog355

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 6,404

Oh, I know it wasn't the best bet. I just posted it for transparency since I bet it. Winning on the 4 isn't worth a whole lot, so I don't think I missed much.

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01-26-2016 , 08:36 PM

#16

fansrajoke

adept

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 1,182

Really? DEN +6 now? Take it, it only drops from there if CAR will win by 5. I assume all early birds on DEN +4.5 and less and all late birds on CAR -5.5 and -6 will lose. And bet on CAR M/L and DEN +6 to win both.

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01-26-2016 , 08:38 PM

#17

hfrog355

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 6,404

I don't see any of the major books offering DEN +6 as a standard line. Looks like 4.5 everywhere.

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01-26-2016 , 08:45 PM

#18

fansrajoke

adept

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 1,182

After watching SA and GS played last night, I can see the future CAR M/L is the one. Public don't believe CAR has the talent to win SB. That's why they will win (pretty much like Seahawks 2 years ago but the story is a bit different DEN is the dog not fav.) But by how many points is the question. As the line moved from -3.5 to -4.5 super fast and now settling at -5.5 and -6. My guess is that CAR will win by at least by 5.

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01-26-2016 , 08:47 PM

#19

fansrajoke

adept

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 1,182

Quote:

Originally Posted by hfrog355

I don't see any of the major books offering DEN +6 as a standard line. Looks like 4.5 everywhere.

Ask DeezNuts, I saw CAR -5.5 somewhere at vegasinsider.com

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01-26-2016 , 09:16 PM

#20

DeezNuts

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,016

I have DEN +6 (-120) on Bovada. I know they give diff lines to diff people but I've had that for the past 24 hours at least.

I don't think you are losing too much by taking DEN +4.5 +100 (I see on Intertops and 5Dimes) as 5 is not key whatsoever but 6 apparently has become more of a key number due to missed XPs.

I'll take EG over EV for the big game, I'd like to book a win after a super lackluster season.

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01-26-2016 , 11:05 PM

#21

Poogs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 4,501

If I had to guess I would say that youll be able to get a 7 somewhere super square by kick off. Im taking some nibbles at 4.5

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01-26-2016 , 11:12 PM

#22

hfrog355

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 6,404

Quote:

Originally Posted by fansrajoke

Ask DeezNuts, I saw CAR -5.5 somewhere at vegasinsider.com

Yeah, it looks like there are some 5.5 around, but I'm not able to get to any of those lines. I'm kind of stuck is a limited number of outs.

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01-26-2016 , 11:17 PM

#23

fansrajoke

adept

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 1,182

Quote:

Originally Posted by hfrog355

Yeah, it looks like there are some 5.5 around, but I'm not able to get to any of those lines. I'm kind of stuck is a limited number of outs.

Take it CAR M/L then. I think the best way to go is to bet CAR M/L and CAR -4.5. If CAR M/L is a lock, is Newton gonna be automatically MVP?

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01-26-2016 , 11:25 PM

#24

Sabaneta

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 1,175

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poogs

If I had to guess I would say that youll be able to get a 7 somewhere super square by kick off. Im taking some nibbles at 4.5

No chance.

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01-26-2016 , 11:45 PM

#25

Roger Clemens

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,778

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

Definitely can't remember any recent examples of good defenses getting lit up on slippery fields and the games going over by a million points.

To confirm, pull up 4th qtr scoring in Rose Bowl game.

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