yet books only put super low limits on props.

hey we're all seasoned pros come superbowl time

If it's a very specific prop that might not get a lot of action, then the book is at risk of too many bets being on the same side and losing. If the prop is offering huge odds, the book is at risk of losing a lot on just one bet. The game spread will get plenty of action and all those bets are about 1:1. That bet won't kill the book. Props have the possibility of hurting the book by the nature of what they are, not because they're so easy.

It's the same reason a car insurance company doesn't insure 1 Aston Martin and nothing else. They need to spread the risk over many customers to stay in business. If a customer does want to insure an expensive car, the ins. co. will probably take on a piece of it and find another company to take on the other piece. It's also why reinsurance companies exist.

I don't know why you betting gurus don't understand the foundation of what you claim to be experts at.

Yeah, I'd like to understand how that is -EV also.

its not. its an incredible bet actually, but its to be expected since my hometeam is in the super bowl obviously. I have a guy dealing +3 +110 right now.

And I am taking a position. The only reason Im buying back some pats is because the amount I can get down on sea is way more than I want to be naked on, and its more +EV to buy up every single good number on sea and sell back what I dont want at a good price. So thats what Im doing...right now have about 8k on sea and 3k on Pats. Ill probably add some more pats and end up with like 3kish at risk, maybe a little more or less depending on where the number goes. Plus probably put at least 50k in action in props, plus the guys I get accounts for will go bonkers, so we're looking at a really big day, and if the pats win by 1 or 2 Ill be so rich.

-EV hedges/middles are -EG unless you are overstaked. Poogs is a poor, so in his case hedging a sick 8k bet is fine.

POURS indeed.

How the hell can you be betting for 4+ years and still be overstaked on your huge +EV bet. Gas prices have gone down so much lately, the RAM costs practically nothing to fill up anymore. Where does all the money go!??!?!

and I must say the HITS gif of snow white exploding is the first post of his I was actually amused by in the same 4+ years.

5k would be a reasonable bet size on that for someone whose sole possession was this:

http://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/de...6106/overview/

It's almost as if Poogs never read any of the links to the Kelly Criterion that have been posted here over the years.

the **** are you two butt buddies talking about? did you plan to post at the same time in your chat room that youre in literally 24 hours a day every single day?

Yes, betting 8k on one game is too much for me. Less than half that is at +3 btw. If that makes me "a poor" then I guess im a poor. Some people enjoy life Iowa, and spend some of the money they make. And hey who knows if you werent such a miserable shut in, I could have probably gotten you accounts where seattles at +3.

Since you can't afford to max bet anything and if you did have access to other accounts you could hook people up with and didn't, you are only costing yourself money, which I can't say I'm surprised about. Add it to the laundry list of stupid things you have done in your sports betting career. So much wasted potential. PM me if you ever want to join the 1%.

And fwiw, I haven't spoken to iowa in 2 years. Last time was when I oddly enough, hooked him up with an account at a place I couldn't fully utilize myself. Think we made each other about a Dodge RAM each.... Only a used one tho

I don't know. I feel like I know how to spend money and have a good time:

http://i.imgur.com/wtueiMo.png

actually just about everything I bet is max bet. and I do get people accounts who crush, just not you guys.

I'm pretty happy about my sports betting career thus far actually, thanks for asking about it. Sure Ive made tons of mistakes, but thats how Ive learned. Its a lot of trial and error and Im not afriad to ask questions if I dont know the answers. I am not a naturally gifted person whatsoever, believe me. I actually had to switch majors in college because I couldnt pass the math courses. So the fact that Ive had quite a go at it in this field is almost a miracle. I have found that Technical skills, while important, are not the be all end all when it comes to making money betting sports. And what I lack in pure math/technical skills I more than make up for in other areas.

So if you ever wanna bend at the knee and kiss my rings maybe we can work out an account deal in the future, I dont do much baseball work.

what other areas help making money on sports betting? what have you learned that you didn't know 4 year ago?

I deal almost exclusively with locals so theres tons of stuff. I have people get me accounts, I get people accounts, its a pretty big network. I seem to be good at aligning peoples interests with mine. For instance, after I get the boot from an agent I usually try to get him to work with me and find me other accounts and take a piece of my action. Then theres collecting which is another big thing. Thats all for the free lessons for now durito

Poogs,

Have you ever had to "encourage" a guy to pay up?

Please respond.

hits

That's some solid networking poogs, and it's always nice to have soft accounts. But what happens when all locals get rid of teasers and props.

ive never been a part of any violence at all, but I may or may not have hired guys to scare someone into paying once. I didnt like it though and have mostly had little to no problems collecting the past couple years.



Theres so much dumb money in the market (look at this thread!) that I'm not too worried about it. People really dont know what theyre doing and I would guess that bookies more than make up for what me and guys like me do to them in props and teasers and stuff. I mean just this year I was betting at a book that allowed two 6pt teamers at even odds for 2k max bet, AND they had ridic stale lines. Every time I get the boot I manage to find another out, im pretty scrappy like that.

How is it you've never been stiffed?

What was your selection criteria? What sort of personality traits did you seek during the hiring process?

15 strength and 12 charisma

ive been stiffed a ton of times. over the years ive grown wiser and the deadbeats have been mostly weeded out so I havent had any major problems in quite some time

In probably 1-3% of your teasers did moving the line make a difference. When you remove changing the line, teasers are just parlays but worse, you're not even getting odds. Teasers exist for guys not confident enough to bet the line where it is.

you sir, make poogs look like a genius