I would like to get involved in statistical analysis for sports betting but I'm not sure where to start. Does anyone have any tips? I've a solid grounding in statistics and probability but I've never systematically applied it to sports betting. I'm comfortable with Excel and VBA.

I've been googling for the last hour but the amount of quality publicly available resources is slim.

For example, Betfair releases massive amounts of historical data every week but I can't seem to find any websites or organisations that are crunching the numbers. Some of these markets are small and illiquid - there's bound to be inefficiencies that could be taken advantage of.

Any ideas, websites, blog posts etc would be appreciated.

Applied math at a local university.

Suggest to google Sportsbetting Stats........

There is no good publicly available info on sports modeling because the people who have figured it out would rather continue to make millions than give away their secrets for free.

Congrats on your education! And welcome to a new school. Since you're new with sports betting. Any particular sport you're interested in? Start from there. Next thing is getting familiar with the odds, and prepare to get a lot of why questions. And most of all, start small and keep track of your winning rate.

mostly this.

After my afternoon of googling I have to conclude that this looks to be the case.

I can get a database of scores from half a dozen sources but I've been trying to look for Premier League goals times and it's impossible to find a downloadable database. If I want a database of goal times I'm literally going to have to look up individual matches and record the times myself...pretty time consuming.

You see, my current hypothesis is that odds react on a betting exchange when a goal is scored in a predictable way (maybe they over or underreact) in such a way that it is exploitable. And so I wanted to test this was historical data.

This is just one thing I've thought of, it might turn out to be bs, but when I get some decent data together I can test this and other strategies.

1)learn to code
2) learn to code
3) coursera.org
4) download sports data and come up with a very simple model and try it out. see what happens
5) this list is not in order

Yup, no use looking. No free information out there. You googled around for a couple hours? Then its def not out there. Give up.

read each sports sabermetric type forum. believe it or not, much of the best analysis is done for free and in public by people who have no interest in betting but simply enjoy analyzing their favorite team or sport. stand on their shoulders, think about how to apply those ideas to betting, and do it yourself.

similar to the previous suggestion, subscribe to jqas and think about how to monetize the rare nuggets of wisdom you'll discover.

most likely the end result is that you'll invest hundreds of hours learning useless information, build a ****ty model, and lose.

either way, never share what you learn/discover.

Did Logain give up after an hour? I don't think so.

Now this looks promising! Exactly the type of thing I'm looking for. I appreciate that my efforts may bear no fruit, but actually, I'm encouraged that I can't find many resources, I had always assumed many people were doing this sort of thing.

Haha, I did not. I've been building databases from various sources. I've even managed to fine the goal times I mentioned in a previous post.

I've had another look at this journal this morning, it's pretty damn cool. There's no need to subscribe, I can just google individual article titles and can nearly always find a free PDF. Looking up individual authors should yield further areas of research.

Statistical analysis for sports betting is a fairly broad phrase. I should say I'm initially focusing on the English Premier League (soccer). To that end, I've identified about a dozen articles from the above journal that will help me get started. I was scanning one and was encouraged to discover the authors actually got their data from the same (free) sources I'm getting mine.

why is tomg trying to send logain down a false path is tomg a tout at heart? only way to do this is by coding and then you at least get a real skill no matter what happens and dont have to bet all in on jeb bush

everyone is a shill

Absolutely. I know VBA for Excel but also a little bit of Python which I'll work on as and when I need it.