Hey all I've been trying to find some data on the ev of 1/2 point or 1 point in spreads, over/unders etc to calculate whether or not taking a vig reduction is worth it or not but I can't rly find the data of how often the end result is + or - 1 point from the opening line.
I.e. taking the under at 57 with -110 vig or 56.5 with a -105 vig is better. The ev of making the right choices in these spots would be pretty huge at least a few % probably. If anyone has any info on this it'd be a huge help thanks!
click csv
import to excel
add in a few more seasons
calculate how many times the total was 45,46,47,48
answer
the problem with doing it specifically by odds like you want to is that your sample will either be too small, or you'll be going too far back in time to get a decent sample, making the data irrelevant anyway.
