How to test if the closing line is efficcient for a specific league - Sports Betting

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How to test if the closing line is efficcient for a specific league

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08-05-2017 , 07:04 PM

MisterRodriguez

journeyman

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 301

This question might sound basic or pointless for some of you but wich method do you suggest to test the closing odds efficiency for a specific league?

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08-06-2017 , 07:25 AM

Mihkel05

banned

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 4,835

You can't in isolation.

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08-06-2017 , 06:46 PM

MisterRodriguez

journeyman

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 301

Could you expand on that please.MY idea was for instance if i check the outcomes of home asian main handicap and away asian main handicap for a specific league and the payout is 97-98%(Pinny comission) the odds are efficient is this a plausible strategy for you?

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08-07-2017 , 09:01 AM

Mihkel05

banned

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 4,835

No to both.

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08-07-2017 , 10:48 AM

MisterRodriguez

journeyman

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 301

So how would you go about it Mikhel,by dividing your results from the past seasons against the closing line in subsets(how much you beat/lost against the closer)and see if there is a correlation wiht ROI?

Last edited by MisterRodriguez; 08-07-2017 at 10:54 AM.

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08-07-2017 , 04:06 PM

Sabaneta

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 1,175

What are you trying to figure out?

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08-07-2017 , 06:28 PM

CallMeIshmael

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 9,330

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez

Imagine you had 10,000 data points of games as you describe, assume in all cases the market thinks its 50/50 for the team to cover the spread, and two scenarios:

1) all 10,000 events are truly 50/50
2) 5,000 are actually 75/25 and 5,000 events are actually 25/75.

In both of these scenarios, the market get its "right" in as much as it predicts 50% winners and we get 50% winners, and the test you are describing will view those as identical in terms of efficiency, but clearly that is wrong.

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08-07-2017 , 07:09 PM

MisterRodriguez

journeyman

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 301

Sabaneta i bet on Portugal soccer 1st division(and also a ton of valuebets a day):I usually bet the openers ,however this season i feel i can upgrade my limits and find and edge near game time,and was tryng to evaluate the closing odds eficiency in this league(max bet10-50 k game time).Ty

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