POTUS betting thread

[RosieTheGreat]

Randomly noticed this on 5d (guess it just came up today)

1001 Barack Obama wins 2012 election -150
1002 Field wins 2012 election +130

1003 Mitt Romney wins 2012 election +140
1004 Field wins 2012 election -160

1101 Barack Obama Democratic Candidate -5700
1102 Field wins Democratic Nomination +2675

1201 Mitt Romney Republican Candidate -5700
1202 Field wins Republican Nomination +2675

I think ill go .5 units on Romney to win

[DodgerIrish]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40...obama-1006839/

[RosieTheGreat]

ok im retarded.... mods plz lock

[SwoopAE]

Romney isn't going to win unless Obama makes some serious political mistakes. The swing states have above average economic conditions and the path to victory is so narrow for Romney he'd probably need to win 51% of the vote to even win the electoral college

Unless something drastically changes for the worse between now and election day, Obama's going to win by carrying the same states as 08 minus NC IN and one or two others

Basically, Obama can afford to lose Florida, Ohio and Virginia and STILL win if he carries NV CO, or if he wins Virginia, he can even lose Colorado and Iowa as well and still win.

Obama is around 73-75% to be reelected imo.

[acesover8s]

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

Romney isn't going to win unless Obama makes some serious political mistakes. The swing states have above average economic conditions and the path to victory is so narrow for Romney he'd probably need to win 51% of the vote to even win the electoral college

Unless something drastically changes for the worse between now and election day, Obama's going to win by carrying the same states as 08 minus NC IN and one or two others

Basically, Obama can afford to lose Florida, Ohio and Virginia and STILL win if he carries NV CO, or if he wins Virginia, he can even lose Colorado and Iowa as well and still win.

Obama is around 73-75% to be reelected imo.

Then you must be maxing the line everywhere.

Nate Silver says 61%. I have Romney at +400, but hope it loses.

[SwoopAE]

Originally Posted by acesover8s

Then you must be maxing the line everywhere.

Nate Silver says 61%. I have Romney at +400, but hope it loses.

With a limited amount of capital, i'm waiting to get it in at the absolute best moment, which will likely be either when Romney picks a VP but before the media goes after that VP, or during the Republican convention. I'll have 4 figures on Obama though unless factors change my assessment between now and the time i'd look to make the bet (and they could, if the economy gets worse, and everything lines up for Romney)

If Obama gets back down to 50 on Intrade though i'll be going for it immediately.

Nate Silver used to be amazing but his models have been slipping recently, his analysis is better than his models these days. He's still probably the best analyst out there, but I always trust my own reads on these things, i'm up a lot betting on elections, did a politics degree at uni and all that (lol choice of degree I know but whatever I was 17 and who lets a 17 year old choose a degree anyway)

[wiper]

man, what was it 2008? when they had all those senate reelection props? my god it was stealing money.

[just_mo]

Isn't Obama a lock? I'm planning on slamming that line with a 10u wager.

[SwoopAE]

Originally Posted by wiper

man, what was it 2008? when they had all those senate reelection props? my god it was stealing money.

Yeah i'm 13-3 lifetime on politics bets, up a heap, had 10u on Obama at evens, 1u on Obama to win a bunch of swing states being laid 5-1 in my favour and a heap of senate props in 08, even got MO as closest state, made like 25u in 08 on the election, in '10 I went 2-1 +1u or so but there was way less value overall

The senate races are where the money's at.

[ProbablyRsigley]

ron paul is a lock

[TomG]

Over the last few months, one could have gotten Democrat (Obama) at something like -120 or Republican at something like +180.

The people who bet this are political junkies. They follow the news 24/7 and get swept up in the news of the day. The trick is to fade the news cycle. So if the Supreme Court overturns Obamacare, buy Obama at best available price. If Romney stumbles in the first debate, buy Romney when he's cheap.

Personally, I think Obama is going to win re-election and would prefer an Obama weighted portfolio of bets but it doesn't really matter.

[ProbablyRsigley]

true repub lost 40 cents when wisconsin happened to dem -111

now back to dem -140

[SwoopAE]

Fade the news cycle is correct here, I read politics news probably for 30mins+ a day, i'm 90% sure i'll end up on Obama but wait and see I guess. If I could lock Obama up at the 53% or w/e he is on Intrade now I would though probably if enough shares were available

[NajdorfDefense]

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

Romney isn't going to win unless...The swing states have above average economic conditions...
Unless something drastically changes ...Obama's going to win by carrying the same states as 08 minus NC IN and one or two others

Comparing 2012 to 2008 instead of 2010 is a gross error, for any number of reasons as Nate Silver and other political experts can tell you. In addition to the electoral votes per state changed in some cases.

Mich is not above average. Neither is Nevada, Fla is terribad, etc. Every economic indicator shows that BHO will lose, using historic data for employment, job loss, GDP growth, et al.

BHO is behind/tied in WI and Mich so far. Of course, 5 months is a lifetime. Amusingly, in spring 1980 the leader in the national polls was....Ford.

But I bet you anything that no one in the WH thought those states would even be remotely close. If he loses PA or MI, that means he's already lost OH and Fla, and then it becomes almost mathematically impossible for him to win.

He's going to lose IN, NC, probably Fla, OH, NE2, and likely some of WI, CO, MI, NV, NH, VA, IA even Oregon [meaning 50% odds or more per state].

Romney ain't losing Ariz or MO. Tie [highly unlikely] goes to House which will go Romney. Almost be worth it just to see the heads explode.

Anyone who thinks Barry is a 3-1 fave at this point is a joke. The lines given by the book in OP looks pretty sharpish to me. +/-140 or so would be my given line at this point. If you're still wedded to 2008 instead of today, Mitt needs to win back only OH + FL which are red/trending red, VA and NH. He doesn't need WI, MI, NV, CO, OR, IA to win 270-268. {Or replace VA and NH with PA}

Once people start bailing on the incumbent, it won't be close though, see 1980 and 1992 for further details. Clinton, Booker, Carville are already bailing on him privately and some days publicly. Rahm packed up and went home a long time ago.

And any 3rd party entry like Johnson or Naderite kills the incumbent, again, see 1992, 1980 for more details.

If ACA gets overturned on Monday, it will simply confirm for millions more voters that Barry was a mistake - an inexperienced, floundering, over-his-head, buck-stops-elsewhere, 100 rounds of golf playing mistake.

Still, probably life-hedge on BHO ftl...

[ProbablyRsigley]

should run hillary