Quote:
Originally Posted by DMMx69
risking 1/2 unit to win 0.013, Oregon -3750
risking 4000 units to win 100, Stony Brook -4000
Now 4-0, +105.913 units.
Just called my bookie with today's plays. He says he is thinking about cutting me off, and I could hear a tremble in his voice. Says he has never seen a capper who can identify these plays like me. "Once-in-a-lifetime." His words.
Unfortunately he is now not letting me bet 1000 units or more on a game. Also won't let me bet a prime number of units - something about that he doesn't want to allow me to form some progression betting system that will be a guaranteed winner.
So this makes 3 weeks straight of winners, with zero ML losses. Sometimes I hedge a bit with the spreads, but don't worry about that because it really makes little sense.
Two ball-buster plays today. I isolated these as winners myself. No mathematics - just using my college basketball knowledge. Here are some old winners I bet just so you can see how good my knowledge is.
Duke (top team at home) ML over Longwood (flaccid competition)
Ohio St. (top team with a player of the year candidate) over South Carolina Upstate (wait, who?)
UNC (best team with powder blue uniforms) over Mississippi Valley State (not good team)
I'm doing a tremendous job of isolating teams that are dominate. I'm getting really good prices on these too just because. But really, what does the ML even matter when they all win?
I used to be afraid to think like this until I became really sharp. I'll only bet a game if it is not possible for the team to lose. Only way I can get hurt if if a team I bet on loses, but strip that aside and it's all Ws.
Here's what we have today. It's this simple (not my words.)
risking 73 units to win 10 units, Wisconsin -730
(once again a team with a nice, cheap price...Badgers are the best team in the Big Ten named for a rodent and have a large talent edge on Illinois)
Risking 1/4 units to win .058824, Arizona -425
(another dominate team in their conference going up against one of the weaker teams. Line would be at least 5 points higher if Arizona was at home but you get tremendous money line value with the superior team because they are on the road. If you play this on the spread you worry about a backdoor cover but the win should always be safe, Arizona State is just 8-22, or something like that)
Last edited by DMMx69; 03-04-2012 at 11:00 AM.
Reason: It's this simple.