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Old 03-01-2012, 04:52 PM   #1
LukeTheSharp
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Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Has anyone experimented by playing primarily favorites on the money line in basketball? I have a friend who over the last 3 weeks has been utilizing this strategy (anywhere from 2 to 10 point favorites, usually favorites in the 3-7 point range) in both college and the pros.

The local bookie has been taking these picks with open arms however my friend has been accumulating tons of profit from doing this. The bookie is currently reeling.

I understand the risk factor here but my friend claims that he is isolating favorites (through many factors of analysis) that have such a high probability of winning due to talent edge.

Additionally even if my friend were to lose 1 or 2 of these his recent wins would protect himself from even sniffing the red.

He has mainly been relying on the top 3 teams in the country in college basketball (Kentucky, UNC, Syracuse) and the Thunder, Heat, and Bulls in the NBA. The other teams he likes to bet on are teams such as Murray State, Harvard, and Wichita State which dominate their conferences. His money line bets are generally when these teams are on the road since they aren't at as high a price as when they play at home.

Any thoughts or experiences doing this are greatly appreciated.
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Old 03-01-2012, 05:16 PM   #2
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

i haven't looked at it so i don't know, but I do know of a quite sharp bettor who says that moneyline favs are consistently underpriced in american sports so it's possible your friends is on to something.
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Old 03-01-2012, 05:22 PM   #3
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Seems like a really difficult problem to backtest.
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Old 03-01-2012, 05:29 PM   #4
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Thanks for the responses. If you would like I'd be happy to use this thread as a place where we can possibly test this theory. This may prove to be an appropriate time for this money line strategy to work as many teams in college basketball have given up on their seasons so he likely will isolate 3 to 10 point favorites playing teams with hardly anything to play for before conference tournaments begin.
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Old 03-01-2012, 05:46 PM   #5
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

sorry for ****ty formatting, but here is something for home team favorites.
so, line 3 for example shows that home teams favored by 2 won SU 58.92%, corresponding to a juiceless ML of -143.

1 0.4988 -99.9
1.5 0.513 -105.3
2 0.5892 -143
2.5 0.5609 -127
3 0.6233 -165
3.5 0.641 -179
4 0.636 -175
4.5 0.6574 -192
5 0.6758 -208
5.5 0.6748 -208
6 0.7198 -257
6.5 0.742 -288
7 0.7684 -332
7.5 0.8122 -432
8 0.7802 -355
8.5 0.8425 -535
9 0.8348 -505
9.5 0.8441 -541
10 0.8474 -555
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Old 03-01-2012, 05:57 PM   #6
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Equation for 2-order polynomial trend line: y = -5.2048x2 + 3.788x - 108.68

Games that would be profitable tonight, if this always holds:

(all from Pinny)
ORE -6, -260 (should be -273)
CLEM -6', -285 (should be -304)
UCLA -10, -525 (should be -591)
FRES -6, -265 (should be -273)
Drake -7, -310 (should be -337)
SF -9, -450 (should be -496)
SCUp -5', -240 (should be -245)
LI -8, -375 (should be -411)
WAG -9', -505 (should be -542)


Robt Morris -10', -600 (should be -642, though I didn't get data for over 10 so this extrapolation could be off)

All the data from the earlier post is using closing lines for all games from 06-07 season thru 10-11.
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Old 03-01-2012, 06:05 PM   #7
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Random thought: another way to filter out some of these would possibly be to look at the sd of scores? Are some teams more consistent than others? I would rather bet on a more consistent team on the ML as 8 point chalk than a team whose results are more varied. (If such consistency/inconsistency even exists?)
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Old 03-01-2012, 06:10 PM   #8
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

You are better off filtering by totals. Team X -8 is drastically different when the game total is 120 compared to 160.
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Old 03-01-2012, 06:12 PM   #9
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

I know for a fact that my friend doesn't use mathematics to construct his moneyline picks and it's led him picking up quite a few envelopes recently. He strictly uses his college basketball knowledge to bet money lines. For instance these were his big winners in the last 10 days.

UNC (top team on the road) ML over Virginia
Kentucky (top team on the road) ML over Mississippi State
Michigan State (top team on the road) ML over Minnesota
Syracuse (top team on the road) ML over UConn
Vanderbilt ML over Florida
Penn (top Ivy league team on the road) ML over Dartmouth

Obviously he's doing a tremendous job of isolating teams that dominate their conference and getting good money line prices since the majority of these teams played on the road. The above are mostly cases where it was incredibly sharp to go the ML route as these teams wouldn't cover but given their huge talent edge they would find a way to win.

It seems people who try to bet sports seem to be afraid to think of the matchups and the risks involved with playing top teams on the ML. Syracuse, UNC, and Kentucky have a total combined 6 losses. They are going to win 30+ games. Think of all the value that was missed by bettors!

My friend is really sharp and would lay off if they play a team in the top 10 since they could possibly lose. The only loss he could get hurt by in the past is when UNC lost to FSU or when Kentucky lost to Indiana.

Strip aside that and it's all Ws.
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Old 03-01-2012, 06:17 PM   #10
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
Originally Posted by B00T View Post
You are better off filtering by totals. Team X -8 is drastically different when the game total is 120 compared to 160.
This is a good point. I'll look into this more later.
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Old 03-01-2012, 06:49 PM   #11
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

My friend is on these tonight. I'll outline the strategy in parentheses that I discussed above.

It's this simple: take a far superior team on the road with a dumbed down moneyline because the oddsmakers are dumb enough to think home court/home ice mean a ton ML wise.

risking 3.5 units to win 2, Miami Heat -175 (the best team in the NBA with a relatively cheap money line since they are on the road in a notoriously tough place to play. Seems like great value. They may not cover the 4 but they are too good of a team to let a middle of the pack Western Conference team upset them on national TV)

risking 2.8 units to win 2, Rangers -140 (once again a road team with a nice, cheap price...Rangers are the best team in the Eastern Conference and have a large talent edge on the Hurricanes)

risking 5.25 units to win 3, Indiana State ML -210 (another dominate team in their conference going up against one of the weaker teams. Line would be at least 5 points higher if Indiana State was at home but you get tremendous money line value with the superior team because they are on the road. If you play this on the spread you worry about a backdoor cover but the win should always be safe, Southern Illinois is just 8-22)
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Old 03-01-2012, 07:18 PM   #12
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Sports Betting: It's This Simple.
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Old 03-01-2012, 07:31 PM   #13
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Never said that but let's face it, these picks look pretty sharp and he's seemed to do a great job finding great value on dominate teams. Give credit where credit is due, this guy has been murdering it.
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Old 03-01-2012, 07:33 PM   #14
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LukeTheSharp View Post
Never said that but let's face it, these picks look pretty sharp and he's seemed to do a great job finding great value on dominate teams. Give credit where credit is due, this guy has been murdering it.
Is Indiana St ML still good at -175?

Last edited by Iowa!; 03-01-2012 at 07:40 PM. Reason: someone is fading the system
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Old 03-01-2012, 07:34 PM   #15
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LukeTheSharp
It's this simple.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DMMx69
Sports Betting: It's This Simple.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LukeTheSharp
Never said that.

Sorry, couldn't help it. I'm sure your friend is excellent at these gut plays, but my gut just isn't on his level. So unless he is going to spoon-feed me his plays for the rest of his/my life, I'll have to resort to my own methods to find profitable opportunities.
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Old 03-01-2012, 07:41 PM   #16
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

"risking 2.8 units to win 2, Rangers -140 (once again a road team with a nice, cheap price...Rangers are the best team in the Eastern Conference and have a large talent edge on the Hurricanes)"

with expert analysis like this I think your friend is on to something huge
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Old 03-01-2012, 07:44 PM   #17
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LukeTheSharp View Post
My friend is on these tonight. I'll outline the strategy in parentheses that I discussed above.

It's this simple: take a far superior team on the road with a dumbed down moneyline because the oddsmakers are dumb enough to think home court/home ice mean a ton ML wise.

risking 3.5 units to win 2, Miami Heat -175 (the best team in the NBA with a relatively cheap money line since they are on the road in a notoriously tough place to play. Seems like great value. They may not cover the 4 but they are too good of a team to let a middle of the pack Western Conference team upset them on national TV)

risking 2.8 units to win 2, Rangers -140 (once again a road team with a nice, cheap price...Rangers are the best team in the Eastern Conference and have a large talent edge on the Hurricanes)

risking 5.25 units to win 3, Indiana State ML -210 (another dominate team in their conference going up against one of the weaker teams. Line would be at least 5 points higher if Indiana State was at home but you get tremendous money line value with the superior team because they are on the road. If you play this on the spread you worry about a backdoor cover but the win should always be safe, Southern Illinois is just 8-22)


The market has moved against all three picks.

Favorites on the ML may or may not be undervalued in certain subsets, and if thats the case then yes, you might accidentatly be on to something. But its more than likely hes on a heater. All it takes is a small losing streak to kill you when laying chalk like this all the time.
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Old 03-01-2012, 08:09 PM   #18
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Working through some numbers (probably a waste of time since I should just pay this guy and/or his friend for plays after he goes 3-0 tonight and kills the books), here's an interesting artifact that is probably near-worthless from a betting angle, but will definitely get your gf excited when you drop this knowledge on her in bed:

NCAAB, Closing Total 123.5 or less: 15+ point favorites have not lost between 2006 and 2011. 116-0 SU. Home teams are 112-0, away teams are 4-0.
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Old 03-01-2012, 08:21 PM   #19
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

thread made me smile 3 different times.
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Old 03-01-2012, 08:32 PM   #20
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

I don't get what a heater is. My friend obviously has done something extremely well over the last 3 weeks to win a lot of units (don't know exact number). He's going to keep sticking to the same routine to keep the "heater" going. Obviously he's got some real talent, the bookie has expressed some concern.
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Old 03-01-2012, 08:48 PM   #21
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

He has no talent, he has gotten lucky. He will lose it all back eventually. The bookie, like most of them is a ****ing moron.
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Old 03-01-2012, 08:53 PM   #22
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

How can you assuredly say that he can't keep this up? This isn't 3 days, this has been 3 weeks of him doing great. If Indiana State keeps this up tonight he'll just have to win one of the other two to grant himself a nice winning day.

I think he may have uncovered a relatively bulletproof strategy to winning. I've never seen someone make so much so fast. And yeah you can twist it that he can lose it so fast but since he's a relatively new bettor he hasn't proven that he loses yet.
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Old 03-01-2012, 08:57 PM   #23
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

Wow 3 weeks. I┤ll just forget everything i┤ve learned in the last 7 years cause some clown ran hot for 3 weeks.

If you would like to wager on his picks continuing to be profitable let me know.
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Old 03-01-2012, 09:03 PM   #24
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Re: Playing Favorites on the Money line?

I'd definitely be up for something. The only caveat may be if he knocks the bookie out with his picks over the next month and the bookie shuts down. Then I wouldn't have access to them.

I'd assume he can find someone else to take his action but in the meantime that could kill his momentum.

The thing is that throughout this not only has his opinion been sharp but he also runs well. When you combine skill with luck it's a deadly and almost impossible combination to beat.
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Old 03-01-2012, 09:07 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LukeTheSharp View Post
I don't get what a heater is. My friend obviously has done something extremely well over the last 3 weeks to win a lot of units (don't know exact number). He's going to keep sticking to the same routine to keep the "heater" going. Obviously he's got some real talent, the bookie has expressed some concern.
Wow. 3 WHOLE weeks. Must be the best system ever!!!!

His sample size is a joke. 3 weeks? Really? I could flip coins to decide who I pick, and I could probably go on a 3-week heater eventually. Doesn't mean anything.
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