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Old 05-16-2017, 01:17 PM   #1
MisterRodriguez
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Pinnacle Odds Efficiency for a specifig league

Hi guys,my first thread here and i am looking to backtest the oddsefficiency of Pinnacle Closing odds against the outcomes in Brazil and Portugal for the last couple of seasons because despite the medium/high liquidity in those markets there are some very odd movements constantly,that to me are worth an investigation regarding the efficcient market hipothesys there.Any ideas of some pratical way to do it,or any software/site that would make the process easier?
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Old 05-22-2017, 01:53 AM   #2
The IRS
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Re: Pinnacle Odds Efficiency for a specifig league

Uh the only way to really do this is to build your own handicapping model of the games and see if it wins against closing lines, out of sample. If it does and then keeps winning after you start betting, then yeah, it's not efficient.

There is plenty of stuff out there where the pinnacle close is not efficient at all. I know because I would be living in a box right now if it had been efficient.

Not a soccer guy but I do believe you can bet fairly large on the leagues you mention, with other books taking much bigger action than pinnacle. And soccer is the mostly widely bet on sport around by large syndicates, so I don't think it's dumb money behind the moves as they'd get hit back the other way. Of course it's always possible these are set-up type moves to hit following books. I'd guess the large line movements are probably due to injury or roster announcements.
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Old 05-22-2017, 06:17 AM   #3
MisterRodriguez
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Re: Pinnacle Odds Efficiency for a specifig league

Thank you for your Feedback Irs,i will test the closing lines for those markets.The reason i'm doing this is because i ve been noticing a trend in a subset of games that the Openers often Beat the closers for the last couple of seasons.Is it possible(assuming odds are GENERALLY efficient in those high liquidity markets)that Pinnacle openers are that soft that a basic technical analysys would make a nice profit long term?
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Old 05-24-2017, 08:55 AM   #4
TomG
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Re: Pinnacle Odds Efficiency for a specifig league

you don't need to build your own model, the betting line itself is essentially a model you can test against the actual game outcome.
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Old 05-24-2017, 11:54 AM   #5
MisterRodriguez
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Re: Pinnacle Odds Efficiency for a specifig league

Hi TomG,have been reading the blogs all around web and you are a veteran here and in an other famous blog,thank you for your post.Anyway if i compare the closing odds in a specific league with the outcomes for the last 3-5 seasons and the payout is similar to Pinny payout the market is efficient?
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Old Yesterday, 12:12 PM   #6
lvr
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Re: Pinnacle Odds Efficiency for a specifig league

The market is always efficient unless it's some sub K **** kicker league.
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