Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez
Hi guys,my first thread here and i am looking to backtest the oddsefficiency of Pinnacle Closing odds against the outcomes in Brazil and Portugal for the last couple of seasons because despite the medium/high liquidity in those markets there are some very odd movements constantly,that to me are worth an investigation regarding the efficcient market hipothesys there.Any ideas of some pratical way to do it,or any software/site that would make the process easier?
Hey there. I am the developer of
http://kick.bet and we are tracking Pinnacle opening and closing lines (also for the two leagues you are asking for). At least for the 2016 and 2016/17 and 2017 seasons (80+leagues tracked) I can assure that closing beats opening by almost 2% (overall). So the opposit of what you are saying is the case.
I know, 2% seems ok. But don't forget that Pinnacle has a 98% payout and if you manage to make these 2% long-term you are still not beating Pinnacle. Also selling your opening odds for closing odds on an exchange would only cover your fee.
Anyways, I recommend you don't look up the overall outcome but instead focus more on certain odds ranges. Odds in the range of 1-2 (favorite betting) take another developement as odds in the range of 2-3, 3-4 etc. Also the payout for each possible outcome (1x2) has to be calculated/guessed for every match seperately but is very hard to determine. As said, Pinnacle has an overall 98% payout but it is more likely the case that you have (for instance) a 96% payout on the home team but a 100% payout on the away team. If you realy want to beat Pinnacle you need to know where Pinnacle trys to exploit you and shifting their odds over or under the average 98% payout line. But this is another topic.
After all, the "beating the Pinnacle closing line strategy" does not look promising enough for me, so I probably cease tracking Pinnacle opening/closing odds after the 2016/17 and 2017 season and focus on my major betting strategy only, which has its advantages but of course comes with other challenges.
Get me a message if you need some further help and I'll try backtesting your thoughts. Always interested into some qualified input from outside...