Olympic betting thread

[DannyOcean_]

sounds interesting, then. sounds like his incredible record-setting runs were preceded by really good runs.

the only thing holding me back is no knowledge about the track/conditions effect in london, and the fact that the olympics tend to bring out the fastest times (it seems). Seems like there could be some value. I might hit it small.

[KobeNBAChamp]

what book do you use ?

[KobeNBAChamp]

women soccer japan to win gold for +394

they only have 3 groups, if japan, usa and brazil win their groups. they have the easiest road to the finals.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Footbal...27s_tournament

[prento18]

michael phelps to win 3+ gold by himself, not including relays

sally pearson to win womens 100m hurdles

brazil to win mens soccer

germany to win mens field hockey

Australia to win womens basketball

jamaica to win mens 4 x 100m relay in world record time

mitchell watt to win mens longjump

tony martin(assuming he is competing) to win mens cycling time trial

86:1 odds

[Donkson]

lol

[DannyOcean_]

Originally Posted by prento18

michael phelps to win 3+ gold by himself, not including relays

sally pearson to win womens 100m hurdles

brazil to win mens soccer

germany to win mens field hockey

Australia to win womens basketball

jamaica to win mens 4 x 100m relay in world record time

mitchell watt to win mens longjump

tony martin(assuming he is competing) to win mens cycling time trial

86:1 odds

this post wouldn't be so bad if you actually posted the odds for each event.

also, aussie women really not gonna beat the USA imo.

[DannyOcean_]

Originally Posted by KobeNBAChamp

women soccer japan to win gold for +394

they only have 3 groups, if japan, usa and brazil win their groups. they have the easiest road to the finals.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Footbal...27s_tournament

kind of

Group E - #5 Brazil, Great Britain (England is #9), #23 New Zealand, Cameroon NR

Group F - #3 Japan, #4 Sweden, #7 Canada, South Africa NR

Group G - #1 USA, #6 France, #8 North Korea, Colombia NR

Ranking are FIFA. The tournament is like this

E1
F3/G3

G1
E3/F3

F1
G2

E2
F2

Assuming USA/Japan/Brazil all win their groups, USA and Brazil get marginally easier quarterfinal matches against third place finishers, but then USA and Brazil would play one another in the semifinals.

With that said, Japan has a tougher group. Assuming Japan wins is a bad assumption, they could easily come in second. In fact, assuming anyone wins a specific group is bad. Japan came in third in their group at the 08 olympics. USA came in second to sweden in their 2011 WC group. Japan came in second in their group at the 2011 WC.

Brazil seems to have the easiest group by far, NZ and Cameroon should offer very little resistance imo. Japan's group seems the toughest.

Japan does not really have the easiest road to the finals.

[DannyOcean_]

To totally toot my own horn, I hope somebody out there took my advice and jumped on NO to Jordyn Weiber. I got her at -105 and she's already moved to -150. There's still some thin value there, and I expect the line to keep moving. Like I said before, it's possible that was just a broken line they forgot to update. They still don't have a line for Gabby Douglas to win, even though she's arguably the favorite (and inarguably at least the second favorite).

[wiper]

horn tooted.

[DannyOcean_]

Thoughts on these bets?

Brazil men's soccer to NOT win gold medal -206

USA to win gold in women's team all-around gymnastics +169

[DannyOcean_]

China's women's table tennis team has moved from -940 to -1298.

[jalmavi]

The track is reportedly Fast

[jalmavi]

source Student games a few weeks ago.

[jquik]

The latest 'one false start and you're auto-DQd' rule wasn't about when Bolt ran the current WR. Was introduced in 2010.

He got DQ'd in the 2011 World Champs for false starting and you'd think he'd be worried of a repeat in the Olympics, maybe?

I can't really see him (or any of the other major contenders) going for a gung-ho, WR breaking start and risking being DQ'd from the Olympics, which is a shame. The rule is such a terrible addition to track athletics.

[RayRoss87]

What do you guys thing about this massive parlay I'm thinking about doing on bovada?



Some of them are absolute locks like David Rudisha for the 800m and USA basketball on the men's and women's side.

The only ones I am really worried about is Djokovic for tennis since he just lost at Wimbledon and Liu Xiang for the 100m hurdles I just kind of threw in there to double my return but I'll probably take him out.

I'm still waiting on the swimming lines to come out too so I can throw in Phelps for some sure victories. Any other absolute locks I can add in? I'm not too familiar with the other sports.