I honestly can't tell if this is my best effort at trolling anymore or if I'm trying to help people and they're so unwilling.

Fwiw your ticket is currently worth ~0.25 * 22 * 400 = $2,200 and you want to cash in. If you would have instead bet

UNCA vs Nova -4300 bet $400 yields $409
Iowa vs Nova -255 bet $409 yields $569
Miama vs Nova -200 bet $569 yields $853
Nova vs Kansas +118 bet $853 yields $1859

You wouldn't have to deal with this hedging nonsense and your $ would have been completely liquid for the past 5 months. These are all closing lines btw, you could have gotten better odds on openers.

If you want to hedge you can either freeroll hedge or cashout hedge. Keep in mind any amount of hedging is -EV so no hedging > small hedging > complete hedging.

To freeroll hedge you can bet to win $400 on Oklahoma so $325 to win $400 at +123. If Oklahma wins you will have lost nothing. If Nova wins then you will have to bet to win $725 on UNC/Syracuse if you want to guarantee avoiding a loss on the bet. Fwiw you're losing $325 * 0.05 = ~$16.25 on the first hedge and then $725 * 0.05 = ~$36.25 on the second hedge.

If you want to cash out hedge you can bet closer to $1,000 on oklahoma moneyline and then if Nova wins close to $4,000 on UNC/Syracuse.

This is dumb and wrong.

EV has nothing to do with it. This is all about making additional wagers to increase growth of bankroll.

I used half kelly for a future bet, but it's for a 50:1 bet. it seems to me like hedging some would have higher eg, once the odds drop significantly. but I can't find any links to confirm or refute this with expected growth. If I sized my bet correctly, is it never correct to hedge?

Simple example. You wager 1% of your bankroll on a 50:1 future bet. That would be 0.5 Kelly for an actual 4% probability of winning.

After some time, you estimate your future bet has 50% chance of winning.

You can now hedge, laying 11/10. So the hedge is -EV.

So, you want to maximize the following:

log(EG) = log(1.5-hedge)*0.5 + log(.99+hedge*10/11)*(1-0.5)

The above is maximized when hedge is 20.6% of your original BR. EG is then 23.4%. Without the hedge, EG is 21.9%.

Your example implies an initial 104% expected ROI on the bet while I guess is possible is pretty damn unlikely.

This is why you frequently post examples that are not even wrong. Instead of understanding his point, and how live betting/hedging opportunities may help improve expected growth, you just make a dumb and inane comment. Quckly taking over the role of p00gs.

Here is information you need to provide in the future to answer your question (along with information you need to learn to ask the correct questions):

1) Learn what EV is.
2) Learn what EG is.
3) BR size.
4) Other player's picks and current standings.

You asked the wrong question and didn't provide enough information to even tell what your ticket is worth.

EG then. If an additional wager would increase your expected bankroll growth, then why does it matter if it's a hedge of a previous bet?

I think it's unrealistic to expect that most hedge posts in this forum, aren't about people who are close to binking a lucky stab, and they just want to cash in, even if it *costs* them.

That is what I was looking for, thanks

heres my scenario:

NCAA pool 10 ppl 1k a piece. 1k freeroll for most points after the first weekends games and winner gets the rest. So 9k left in the prizepool.

I basically need Villanova to win. Split juice on pinny is about 2.5-1

The kid who has UNC offered me 2k, he gets 5k and play for the remaining 2k of the 9k left.

good deal or no?

Because OP was supposed to know that Villanova was going to get stuck with the worst draw imaginable back in November? You've been wrong about this every step of the way but please continue correcting the people who have made millions doing it the right way.

Great deal unless this a rounding error to your BR.

Your posts are not even wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_even_wrong

This is why I don't bother with examples. If you were simply wrong, that is easy to correct. However, you lead people astray with inane comments, misleading outcomes, and mysterious handwaving.

thx i accepted it

Do you think OP would rather have a suboptimal answer or a non explanatory answer followed by an insult followed by a brag about IQ level or wealth?

I wrote an easy to use solver here http://sportsbettingcalcs.com/#hedge_calculator Using Roger Clemens example, enter 100 for Team A bet amount and 51.0 for Team A decimal odds and hit calculate.

It doesn't. I guess that's why I said "additional wagers" instead of "hedge wagers".

So that means advice is not warranted?

I think so. They're looking to bank a partial win and want to wrap it in some fancy justification. To just give them that does them a disservice?

You aren't able to answer the question. (Since it isn't even a math question. It is an opinion poll.) I think I covered how it is impossible. So you're using the phrase "suboptimal answer" to replace "guess with tons of assumptions".

This is why I think your pseudo-advice is so nefarious. It is bull**** masquerading as advice.

Cool solver. Too bad its unable to answer any of the questions posed.

Clearly he is able to explain everything about hedging and kelly criterion. Should just take that early retirement.

Eh... The prior "question" was really stupid. I guess if the one I answered had gotten them message across that he was increasing EG by reducing variance at 0EV, then that is even better. However, I'm not sure spending my time communicating that is more enjoyable for me than a continued discourse on forum pedagogy.

Hedging is expensive.

Maybe bet a little on Oklahoma, ~$500, but no way should you try to hedge big. Assuming they are 50% for both semis and finals, and no juice, then hedging to guarantee max value turns a $9200 ticket into a $2300 ticket.

So I put 1,000 on Oklahoma yesterday..obviously that was a bad play. Still have Villanova 22:1 for 400. I also am in a pool where I win 1300 if Villanova wins. Nothing if unc wins. That was 20 bucks to enter. Any advice for me going into championship night? Thanks for everyone's help!

I posted the calculator I created... http://sportsbettingcalcs.com/#hedge_calculator Enter 420 for bet amount on team a(nova), 25.0 for decimal odds for team A, 1.666 for decimal odds of team B(UNC). Enter win probabilities of 42% for team a, 58% for team B and enter your bankroll. Any bet amount on Team B will be -EV. Depending on your bankroll size it may be +EG. For a bankroll of $20k you should put $5098 on UNC to win to maximize expected growth. For a bankroll of $100k you should only hedge $1,050.

There is an error in here. But it'll be fun to see you attempt to find it.

If Villa wins you're getting $8800 + $1280 - $1000 = $9080

If UNC wins you're -$1,000 - $400 - $20 = -$1,420

UNC is -130. Hedge as you see fit. If you do $5,200 to win $4,000, if UNC wins you net $2,580

If Villa wins, you net $3,660

*math could be off.