If it was raining poosy right now id get hit in the face with a dick

Amen brotha, hopefully GL to us in this week. I am the king of missing parlays by 1 game (although luckily they are for somewhat small stakes). I know the odds on hitting a 7 game parlay are pretty bad but what are the odds of missing 10 different 7 or 8 game parlays by one game in which the majority of them are New O offensive interference ruins it, or SF last sec goal line fumble ruins it etc type plays hah its unbelievable.

Hi, I would like to make 2 points on this subject the first of which is minor compared to the second.

I read the relevant section of the FAQs and it seems to me that it misses the point to some extent.

Yes adding an extra team is wrong IF you are intending to hedge it should the others win.

But when people do such bets they aren't(knowingly )intending to hedge in that position.

Even if they believe that they probably will, the FAQs does not take into account the psychological factor inherent in multiple bets.

It seems to me that multiple bets should not be judged solely on their EV but more on the entertainment/ interest/ utility they provide.

And that means they should include the pleasure of the anticipation of the bet.And that tends to depend,up to a point, on the number of selections.


Now,as I say,that was a minor point and I don't mind at all if it is dismissed.

(Actually I don't really mind if my main point is also dismissed but for an entirely different reason.)

There is a type of betting in which hedging is the best thing to do.

And that is where you are doing parlays on futures in soccer markets.

I do parlays on soccer futures and indeed I'm convinced that they are the best way to bet on soccer.By a long long way.

And I do each bet KNOWING that I'm intending to hedge it at some point!

I was looking for some advice. At the beginning of December I put in a $325 Colts future to win the Super Bowl at 20:1 odds on Bovada. Pays out $6,500. Given they play the Patriots on the road (getting seven points) in the AFC Championship Game I wanted to inquire about some hedging help since I'm a relative noob.

Can somebody advise on what I should be placing on the Patriots this Sunday?

I think the moneyline will be -250ish by kickoff.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/se...rchid=45950515

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40...hread-1264339/

you want to bet Pats ML at the best possible number. Square books actually usually have decent numbers on favorite ML's, so youll probably get a good numbers on bovada esp close to kickoff. Id bet to win like a grand if I were you.

Actually now that I think about, your best bet will definitely be to tease the pats. You can leave a spot open if your book allows you. This is why having multiple books is so key.

If you think the ML will be -250 by kickoff unlikely it would be a good move to tease the Pats because -250 will likely be better odd than the 2-team teaser offers.

What do I tease with? Couldn't I get really screwed if the Pats win and it goes severely under or over?

Leave an open spot

To fill when? Next year. Don't do this at 5dimes they will just steal your equity.

7 of the 9 legs are complete. Two remaining games are the Rockets +1.5 and the Ducks -140.

I like your plays a lot with Houston +1.5 and Ducks -140. I'd likely hedge some but not much. <$1500 or so.

Why did you bet 9 games if you were going to bitch out after 7?

^ TomCrowley is right. You should've planned ahead of time and if you wanted only a seven-team parlay, you should've bet that; after all, the seven-team parlay would've paid you better than a nine-team parlay + a couple hedges.

But since we're now in this situation...

The forum FAQ gives some advice on hedging. Basically, if this is a large enough amount of money to you that you're willing to sacrifice some EV on the hedge, go ahead. If not, don't.

Either way, be aware that if you're making a -EV wager on the hedge, your expectation drops. Whether that's worth it to you for a guaranteed score is a personal decision.

this

Not bitching out.... Was just curious to see what other bettors methods would be if they were in a similar spot. I'm letting it ride. Going from 160/1 on my original wager to two games left that when parlayed are valued at 2.27/1 is a dream scenario. That being said I'll probably go 0-2 today.

Wouldn't it be more of a dream scenario to have your 2500ish in hand and be able to bet whatever you want to, or don't want to, on Rockets +2.5 and ducks -135? Parlaying extra games that don't overlap in time was just totally pointless for you and almost certainly will continue to be in the future.

BUT BRO YOU'RE LOSING EV!!!

HOW CAN YOU GIVE UP EV??!$@%#%

ALL THAT MATTERS IS EV THO!!!!

EVEVEVEVEVEVEVEVEVEVEVEVEVEVEVEVEVEV

misspelled EG in the last post

Looks like you binked it. Gratz.

Unless its life changing money, hedging just lets the book off the hook.

Nah... I'd much rather have the $8053 than $2100. But thanks for the feedback.

Thanks man... Much appreciated.

As I said last night.. I let it ride... And I'm glad I did.

I have $500 on Greece not to leave the Eurozone in 2015 @ -120 amd it's currently -222. Hedge?