Florida
Yeah, I actually do. Here's how. Prior to the tournament I bet my friend FLA vs AZ, a bonus if either team wins it all- my 10,800 to his 11 or 12 (can't remember exactly, already erased his figure). So I'm free rolling now obv.

I also did a 1k bracket that 16 people entered, and I get back 11200 if FLA doesn't win (I have all other scenarios locked up). So there is the unintentional 11k auto hedge.

(I no longer care what FLA does really)

Kentucky
3 of us picked one long shot each (my friends had UCLA and SDSU) for 300 with each person--> I'm still alive with Kentucky to win 15724 twice = 31448.

Lastly, I did a 20 dollar bracket with 70 entries and I get back 1400 if Kentucky wins it all (0 dollars if not).

Anyways, it's confusing AF, and I've never hedged before because I've never had good equity in a long shot bet for significant money. I just felt like 600--> 32k I should consider it.

Also, never heard of EG before, so thanks. I won't die if I don't hedge and Kentucky whiffs, but at the same time pulling out my equity right now seems kinda sweet.

Thanks for any advice/suggestions.

Ask them if they want out. Let them make an offer and add a third to it.

I don't think you should hedge at all, but if you want a guarantee, be ready to give up the equity.

Thx. We've been doing all our wagers closing line/no vig as to try to never have an edge on each other since we are friends.

What's the no edge buyout equation? Is it as simple as possible loss amount x current odds?

I'll give a complicated answer for the archives, but there's a pretty easy answer at the bottom. Both assume you're ignoring anything you've invested and everything is gravy from here on.


First multiply the payout for each winner times their percent chance of winning, which I quickly gleaned from Pinnacle and Betfair:

Florida 47% * $10,800 = $5,076
Wisconsin 20% * $11,200 = $2,240
Kentucky 23% * $44,046 = $10,130
UCONN 10% * $11,200 = $1,120

Add those together, and you get your current EV of $18,567

So in a juice-free world, if you wanted to hedge perfectly, you need to make bets that get you a net payout of $18,567 on all four teams.

Solving that involves some algebra skills, or you can just guess and check in a spreadsheet, but your formula is going to look like this:

FLA_Payout = $10,800 + FLA_Hedge_Risk * .53/.47 - WISC_Hedge_Risk - UK_Hedge_Risk - UCONN_Hedge_Risk = $18,567

In other words, we need to risk some amount on Florida getting (approx) +113, so that if they win, we'll net $18,567 (and remember we'll be risking some on the other teams so we have to subtract out those losses).

UK_Payout = $44,046 + UK_Hedge_Risk * .77/.23 - WISC_Hedge_Risk - FLA_Hedge_Risk - UCONN_Hedge_Risk = $18,567

And so on for the other two.


With some rounding, you'll solve those by making the following bets:
Risk $0 on Kentucky to win the tournament, since you're already long there.
Risk $15,626 on Florida to win the tournament at +112.766 odds
Risk $6,569 on Wisconsin to win the tournament at 4:1 odds
Risk $3,284 on UCONN at 9:1 odds.

If you do those things (which implies juice free betting), I think you'll lock in a profit of $18,567, ignoring some rounding.


The easier way to look at it is, you're guaranteed 11k profit, and you get 33k more if Kentucky wins, so let's ignore the 11k and look at how to spread out the 33k. On Pinnacle, you can bet Kentucky will not win the tournament at -390. So bet as much on that as you want to lock in. If you bet $25,000 to win $6,400, then you win $6,400 if Kentucky loses and you come out ahead $8,000 if Kentucky wins. Bet a little more and you can become indifferent.

This is awesome. You are very helpful and generous. Very much appreciated. If you ever need any nlhe help, please send me a pm!

Last question, what's the equation for a zero edge buyout on the 300 to win 15724 bet?

Thanks!

If you have a ticket that was $300 to win $15,724 on Kentucky winning, and they are 23% to win, I would say that ticket is worth ($300 + $15,724) * .2265 = $3629.44.

You have to add the $300 back in, just like betting $110 to win $100 in Vegas, the ticket will be worth $210 if it wins.

The win percentage comes from Pinnacle having +329 on Kentucky Winning and -390 on Kentucky Not Winning. A juice free line is -341.45, which implies a win percentage of 22.65%.

Excellent. Thanks. You are a good person. Hope you run hot in all your gambling.

No problem, something to do while waiting for Saturday. Congrats on your good bets/brackets too.

I have a relatively similar situation that somebody else posted about the Final 4 and hedging but my situation isn't exactly the same so I'm not sure the advice given to him is what I should use.

Basically I stand to win $1665 from a 2+2 pool and pre tournament betting on Kentucky to win it all if the Wildcats win the Championship. If either of the other 3 teams win then I end up with $0. Being somewhat risk adverse I was hoping to at least lock up some profit at this point and wasn't exactly sure how to do it with 2 games left instead of just one. Ideally I am looking for a hedge that gives me ~1k when Kentucky wins and still 2-300 if they don't. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

impressive wamplerr......impressive

gl dgaf, wampler beat me to it i came to say the same thing he did...

Thx. My friends don't want to buyout. So I'll prob do what wamplerr suggested.

Or... Thoughts on betting like 15k on fla to ship it at ~ evens, praying to God uconn doesn't pull off a miracle on Saturday, and then either free rolling 15 in the championship with 4 more coming if Kentucky wins, or betting 10 on Wisconsin (if they make it) + the points and hoping Fla wins but doesn't cover???

Under that scenario I think:

I lose 15 max if fla loses their first game AND Kentucky doesn't win it all (I can hedge a 2k profit if tucky makes it to finals tho)

I lose 5 max if Wisconsin beats fla in the finals.

I win 5 if Fla beats Wisconsin in the finals AND covers.

I win 25 if Fla beats Wisconsin in the finals and does NOT cover.

I win 15-19 if Fla and Kentucky play for the title.

***I only get totally ****ed if uconn and Wisconsin play for it all.

Does ^^^^ sound like a good gamble, or complete spew?

I'm already going to profit 6 in this tournament from other **** (11 - the 5 I'm stuck) if that matters .

Thx guys!

Update: I couldn't hit n' run my friend so I just bet 12k fla to win it all no vig/whatever the closing line is Saturday.

If uconn and wisc advance, I'm the worst ever. Otherwise I think I can profit all other scenarios and super profit in some by hedging with points.

Thanks for the help/open to any adjusted ideas.

Without too much math, if you risk $1,000 on Kentucky not to win it all at -390, you'll win $665 if Kentucky wins and $256 if anyone else wins.

Or you could bet $200 on the Wisconsin moneyline in the first game at +116. If UK loses, you'll be up $232. If Kentucky wins, you've got an easy hedge on the last game to lock in as much as you want.

I have the potential of winning my NCAA bracket this Saturday. If Wisconsin gets to the finals, I will tie for the win, regardless of the other games. I would receive $1050. But if Wisconsin loses to Kentucky, I'm only getting $150 at best, depending on tie breakers. What would be the best bet to hedge and guarantee around $500?

UK/Wisconsin is close to a coin flip, so it sounds like you just need to bet 500 or so on Kentucky in that game.

Hey I know this thread is a week 3 betting thread but I have a parlay where i have hit 5 out of the 6 teams in week 2 and the last game is monday night football where i picked the eagles. I placed the bet on Carbon and if it hits then it will pay out a little over 9.4k with original amount wagered. This is a huge bet for me and I want to sell the wager for 6k if its possible. I dont know anyone that is willing to bet 6k on the eagles straight up and dont have a lot of money to hedge bet and I know i lose value. Anyone want to DM for more details that would be great.




Bet#: 447324668
PARLAY (6 TEAMS) 09/13/14 22:46 EDT

Bet $ 500.00 to win $ 8,841.42 Result: Pending

Dallas Cowboys 26 vs Tennessee Titans 10 09/14/14 13:05 EDT Dallas Cowboys +165

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 vs Washington Redskins 41 09/14/14 13:05 EDT Washington Redskins -240
K
ansas City Chiefs 17 vs Denver Broncos 24 09/14/14 16:30 EDT Denver Broncos -800

New England Patriots 30 vs Minnesota Vikings 7 09/14/14 13:05 EDT New England Patriots -225

New York Jets 24 vs Green Bay Packers 31 09/14/14 16:30 EDT Green Bay Packers -400

Philadelphia Eagles vs Indianapolis Colts 09/15/14 20:35 EDT Philadelphia Eagles +145

Read post #3 and next time don't bet that extra team.

7 of us are tied in a weekly pick em going into MNF (1k ish prize), in the event we all pick PHIL to win it would go to tiebreakers which the first 3 tiebreakers are total points picked for SNF game, total points picked for the home team for that game, and total points picked for the away team for SNF. I picked the score to be GB 30-20 over CHI which was obviously way off. Therefore I'm not that confident if this pool goes to tiebreaker...so do I have better value in trying to take CAR to win or just stay on PHIL and put a side bet on CAR ML?
Also what everyone picks is usually very close to the yahoo totals which are 86% on PHIL, 14% on CAR so I would only expect maybe 1 of the 7 people to pick CAR.

Actually I'm able to see everyone's picks and have confirmed that I would for sure lose in the first 3 tie breakers. I had 50pts and there's people with 56, 55, and 54pts. So is it better to just take CAR in this weekly pool as there's no way I have a chance if it goes to a tiebreaker and perhaps hedge some with PHIL ML? Just trying to guarantee myself something from this week, thx in advance.

I'm 1 of 7 people tied in a weekly pick em for 1kish for 1st. In the event everyone picks PHIL, it goes to tie breaker which include the points for the SNF game, GB and CHI picked points etc and have confirmed that I would lose in a tiebreaker as the closest person picked 56pts while I had picked 50pts (real total was 69pts).
So basically I should for sure take CAR to win tonight? Everyone's picks are usually in line with the yahoo pick % which currently has PHIL at 86%/CAR 14% and thus would not expect more then 1-2 people at most to be on CAR in which I wouldn't be 100% drawing dead going into a tie breaker most likely. However I want to guarantee something from this week, so should I hedge some with a PHIL ML bet as well?

Wait I just confirmed with the commish and the tiebreaker is for the MNF game first so closest total points, home team pts then away team pts if needed are the first 3 tiebreakers it would go to. So is my play just go PHIL with hopefully a very accurate points prediction and hedge some on CAR ML?

go with the iggles and then just angle shoot this forum for carolina +500 or something equally ludicrous.

lol, I can get CAR ML at +265 at the moment which is still pretty up there.

I went PHIL and had hedged CAR ML, but pretty much the worst possible scenario happened. 5 of the 7 of us ended up being on PHIL, and I had 55pts for the tiebreaker and 1 person had 56pts; the rest were not even close and that's all she wrote. What a sick week, lose on a tie breaker by 1 pt and the SF flop at the end of New O game ruins a 7 team parlay I had going as well. GG NFL.

I swear the gambling gods are punishing me lately. I had o50.5 -105 and u52 -110 on the Denver game both for 1k. Score is 41 to 10 and oak scores a meaningless td with 45 seconds left . I also had a nice clean middle on the 2h of the sf game. O22.5 and u24.5. That garbage offensive pi on a HAIL MARY blew that one up. Then when I think it can't get worse I manage to lose 400 bucks in a freaking 6/12 home game agaisnt kids who literally didn't know the rules of poker. It's the poogopolypse lately. Hopefully Burger King will hire me.