Yes

Gutz do whatever this time, but make sure you read post #3 in this thread.

Hedging is an EG question, not an EV question.

There are cases when betting more legs increases EG, there are also cases when betting fewer legs R/R increases EG. It depends on perceived edge, payoff for the shorter leg parlay, and payoff for longer leg parlay.

There are also cases where perceived edge requires betting the longer leg parlay as the shorter leg parlay payoff offers no edge.

There are also cases when betting more than kelly ratio on the parlay yields higher EG assuming some likelihood an advantageous future hedge is available.

I took the Dallas Cowboys +220 to win the NFC East for $500 at the beginning of the year. I had been planning on hedging a little on the last game of the year (Phi at Dal), thinking that game will be for the division title and that Phi would be slight underdogs (which would help on the return for the hedge).

But after the Cowboys have crapped the bed multiple times, and are 1 game down going into next week, I am thinking of other options.

Option 1: hedge by taking Phi to win the NFC East. I don't like this option because Phi is now -180. This seems too high to me. And, after doing the hedge math, I would only lock in a profit of about $73 (I would bet $1037 on Phi at -180). Or I could bet less on Phili to at least get something back, while still having a little sweat on Dallas (put 360 on Phi at -180, etc).

Option 2: Parlay Redskins moneyline and Eagles moneyline this week (what has to happen for Phi to clinch this week). If the eagles clinch this week, I would win my parlay. If I lose my parlay, Phi at Dallas is for the NFC East Championship. I would then have to decide if I want to hedge by taking Phi in the last game or not. I'm guessing Phi will be +125 or so in the last game.

What do you guys think about option 2? I am leaning towards this option, as I don't like option 1...and the payout for the parlay should be decent (Redskins are +3 and Eagles are -3 this week, so I think the payout should be about the same as taking a standard parlay with lines....bovada doesn't have their moneylines out yet). Am I missing something about why option 2 is a dumb idea?

Option 3 would be to not hedge this week and hope that the Cowboys win or Eagles lose and it comes down to the last week. then I could hedge on Eagles +125 (or whatever the line is). Of course, I am taking the risk that Eagles win this week and I get nothing.

I am thinking I am going to put a little on the parlay for this week.

How about straight up bet the Redskins ML? The Eagles play at night afterwards. If the Cowboys beat WAS, you don't care what happens in the Eagles game, so there's no need to risk losing your parlay there. If the Redskins win, then you could put all of the skins bet and winnings on the Eagles anyway, which would come out the same as if you'd parlayed.

Edit: I realize that made no sense. If Cwboys win, then you lose parlay anyway. Sorry for killing brain cells.

Haha no problem. Thanks for trying to help.

not bad

2 Left including myself in survivor pool we each agreed to partial chop 3k guaranteed each with 1.59 still left to play out for the winner...I'm expecting my opponent to be on either Broncos or Pats, am gonna take SEA myself is this a good spot to hedge on Saints ML? (currently at +335 on 5dimes).

Seems like you already hedged when you agreed to a partial chop. Doesn't seem like there is any real reason to hedge, but to it is up to you.

yea true, most of the equity has been chopped up luckily and it's not exactly life changing money...almost hedged last week when was only 2 of us remaining going into the SF game on GB ML in case I didn't make it through, but SF won and we got through (barely).

A month ago I placed a bet on Denver to win the Superbowl for $50 @$4.90 so how do I hedge the bet on Seattle who's odds are $2.05 so that I can make a small profit.

I'm having a problem with the maths

Bet $119.48 on Seattle odds 2.05

This will have you profit $75.47 no matter which team wins

1590 to the winner of my survivor ontop of the guaranteed money, if we both pick same team it's just split (795 each)...very sure opponent will take DEN so gonna take DEN myself as well but thinking of putting 500 or so on SEA ML.

If SEA wins I win 795 + 500 x 2.15 or if DEN wins 795-500 but I'm thinking this is a better option then just taking SEA to win straight up cuz this way I win something either way (1870 if SEA wins or 295 if DEN wins) the game turns out instead of 1590 or 0, thoughts?

Maximum value is in just going for the chop. $795 win or lose if you are correct about your opponent. Otherwise, picking Seattle in an attempt to scoop, requires betting DEN @ -140, which requires a $928 bet to win $662. Giving you a $662 profit either way.
Take the chop and enjoy the game.

I wanna take SEA straight up but don't wanna come out of this with $0 (there's already 3k guaranteed to each of the final 2 of us). Just want a bit of a sweat, but a win either way. So I figure this is the next best thing to that 1.3 ish profit if Seattle wins and 300 ish ontop of the guarantee if DEN wins...or should I bet SEA +2.5 also?

I got Seattle for +250 to win this game before the playoffs started. Let it ride? Go for the middle? Or hedge with Denver to come ALL the way back?

They're killin em, I would let it ride but that's just me...doubt DEN comes back more then 7-14 pts.

Took DEN in survivor pool and as thought so did my opponent, also put some on SEA ML and glad I did wow what a beatdown!

***I will trade nlhe help for help itt***

Sorry if any of this is really dumb. I don't usually hedge at all but was talked into it today (cost me 4500) so I feel like I should prob follow through. Maybe I will be convinced otherwise though. So here is the scenario:

If any team other than Florida wins the title I get 11200.
If Kentucky wins the title I get 32846 (+11200).
If Florida wins the title I get 10800.

^^^ is the consolidation of a bunch of bets. I had 1500 on Kentucky ml today but switched that to 3k ml Mich per my friend's advice . I'm also stuck ~5k total in the tournament if that matters.

So what/how should I hedge the Final 4 iyo?

Thanks in advance.

based on what?

Ah yes, this is all from brackets and long shot bets before the tournament started. All money bet is included in the 5k I'm stuck.

Does it make sense to hedge longshot/high roi bets if the money is significant? Or is that fish thinking (I'm a sports fish).

Thanks

I bet two friends 300 each on Kentucky to ship it. If that happens they will owe me 15723 each. What would their buyout figure be? Is it just 15723 x current Vegas odds to win it all?

that's what i meant, based on what as in, based on what exposure and/or your own thoughts on who wins and/or are you trying to leave a soft side, etc.

already took my ambien for the night, pretty easy to calculate at this point, no? if not, somebody will do it tonight for you or i can in the morning.

I think I'm missing something. You're saying that you have 10k locked up if fla or any team that isn't fla wins? Cant be right.

As for hedging in general, MOST people hedge too much because the idea of coming away with nothing is too much to bare. Its mostly irrational behavior, however hedging can be correct in many different situations. If you happen to find a good or even break-even bet that lets you tamper down some exposure on one side, thats fine. Also if the amount of money is significant to you personally, it can make sense to hedge. Its really about +EG vs +EV. EV is what everyone knows about, but expected growth is important too, and it is ok to eat into your EV a little bit for the sake of higher EG.
(would you take 1.2 to 1 on a coin flip for your entire net worth? No, because even though the EV is excellent, the EG is terrible.) So always consider EG when doing hedge analysis.