* Official March & April Chatter thread *

[Performify]

Rules: absolutely anything goes in here, no matter how off topic, as long as it doesn't violate the site's terms and conditions or the general tone of this forum (i.e. still be respectful to each other). But you can talk about any subject you want in here... . Discuss anything you want!

Previous chatter thread (Jan - Feb) :
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...ad.php?t=94814

[MyTurn2Raise]

in like a lion, out like a lamb

[The Humungus]

[hedgie43]

This followed over from the last chatter thread...

Calmb4storm,

You're basically saying Pinny is wrong by ~30%. You sure about that one?

How do you figure that one? If Pinny is efficient, Tiger is 43.6% to win the Masters. That would mean he would have to be around 33% to win each other tournament for the 5/1 bet against him winning any tournaments to even be breakeven.

[calm]

How many Majors will T. Woods win in 2008?
Maximum Wager: 1000.00 USD

500 None +342
501 One +180
502 Two +298
503 Three +608
504 Grand Slam +1083

[alwardc4]

Originally Posted by hedgie43

This followed over from the last chatter thread...

Calmb4storm,



How do you figure that one? If Pinny is efficient, Tiger is 43.6% to win the Masters. That would mean he would have to be around 33% to win each other tournament for the 5/1 bet against him winning any tournaments to even be breakeven.

Without looking at any lines I thought he was roughly .4, .4, .3, .3 to win each major.

So yeah, 5:1 is close and may have some value because I don't think he is even those odds for each tourney.

Either way the money would be tied up too long for a possible minimal value. However, if he continues to kick butt up to the masters, this line may get to out of whack at some places.

I just think its funny that I found him at 3:1 for the slam somewhere.

[hedgie43]

Calmb4storm,

That's great. Now Pinny has posted a line on Tiger for the upcoming Masters at +125/-135. Which do you think would be more efficient, and if you think both are perfectly efficient, what makes you think Tiger will be < 33% in each major for the rest of the year?

[alwardc4]

I would never put someone at better than 33% to win the British (except maybe Tiger at Andrews). The weather and courses bring too much variance.

[hedgie43]

Alward,

So maybe Tiger is 30% to win the British. What about the other 2, though?

[calm]

LOL Handicapaments.

I'm not really sure, but I'm inclined to give Pinny the benefit of the doubt re: sharpness. As someone else mentioned, it doesn't really matter though. There are better ways to make money than betting a 25% edge with a shady book for six months.

[hedgie43]

I'm not really sure, but I'm inclined to give Pinny the benefit of the doubt re: sharpness. As someone else mentioned, it doesn't really matter though. There are better ways to make money than betting a 25% edge with a shady book for six months.

I generally do, too. However, futures markets are known to be less efficient than in sports for the reason you stated above: TVM.

[NajdorfDefense]

Originally Posted by alwardc4

I would never put someone at better than 33% to win the British (except maybe Tiger at Andrews). The weather and courses bring too much variance.

Agreed. .3 or higher is crazy talk.

[hedgie43]

Naj,

So make him 25% to win the British. It's still a -ev bet unless he wins the others less than 37% of the time each.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Don Rickles is actually still capable of thought and pretty sharp... at least he is on Letterman right now

[Thremp]

You know you have issues when you log into your Cris acct, see this "Daily Win/Loss: 13000.00" and get annoyed because the withdraw process is a pain.