Obviously he is an amazing golfer and is likely to win another major.

That being said, what are the odds he does?

I made a bet with a guy about 2 years ago at 1/10. I put up 100 vs. his 1000. Bet is complete when he wins a major and retires. If he retires, and un-retires, anything thing that happens after initial retirement does not count.

Bad bet? It was just for fun anyways

Should say or retires

im starting to doubt it these days- wouldnt like to price it though

I'd still play yes -1000 today.

Tiger that we saw from 2012-13 is ~10% to win each major. That declines slightly each year due to age, but is still at least ~3% by age 50. I imagine he'll keep playing majors beyond that. Modelling it in this naive way he's 97% to win at least one more through age 50. That's the optimistic model.

The problem is building in his injury risk; he's suffered several severe injuries in just the last six years. If the back injury lingers or flares up repeatedly for the rest of his career it would sap his performance, his ability to compete, and his will to continue rehabbing and maintaining his body in competitive shape.

I created a new model which gives him a 90% chance of being healthy for each major and a slowly increasing from 1% to 10% chance of retiring for good before each major. That puts his chances of winning at least 1 more major at ~70% through age 50. I'd say this is the pessimistic model.

Thanks for the thoughtful response.. Quite interesting

Well written thoughts, problem is the numbers are for crap.

Tiger was in no way 10% to win the last two years, not that it matters because his body will never be that healthy again. LOL at Tiger being 3% to win a major at 50, he might play The Masters every year he's able but he won't be teeing it up in the others. He won't be one of those ceremonial golfers, he won't play if he can't win.

And he simply won't be able to win because he won't be able to play. His body is failing fast. His left knee is shot already, his back isn't far behind, and there's tons of other physical issues that will crop up. I'd honestly say it's 50/50 whether or not he's still playing regularly in 5 years.

Whatever model you build, suggest using a length of 5 years, max of 20 majors. And that's assuming he's able to play them all, which is very doubtful. And he's probably got at least twice the chance to win at Augusta vs. the other three.

He's certainly capable of winning another major, but everything has to go right for it to happen. He's got to be healthy, he's got to be able to control the driver, he's got to make clutch putts, he's got to overcome his current major demons, and he's got to hope nobody goes nuts like Rory did last week. All of those things have to happen and he's currently having trouble with all of them.

You'd put up $1000 to a non-believer's $100 today that he wins a major? Holy balls.

You have his medical records and are an MD? If not then you have no idea how healthy he is likely to be long-term. I suspect not very, but then again he's been healthy for three full-seasons out of six since the knee injury. During those three seasons he's been by far the best player in the world (2009) and the best player in the world (2012-13). That's points to him still being very good at golf.

As for your assertion that he wasn't 10% to win majors last year, based on his talent last year he was. Guys ~2.5 better than Tour average win major strength tournaments ~10% of the time. Golfers that good decline to ~1 to 1.5 strokes better than Tour average between 38-50. That talent level wins majors ~3% of time.

Your whole argument boils down to "I think he's broken down, so...". Starting from imaginary premises can take your argument anywhere.

Agree with that, he won 5 from 18 starts in 2013 and age alone would not prevent him from returning to that form imo.

The big unknown is whether he has genuinely recovered from the back problem. His play has been poor since the surgery.

interesting question alluded to by anotherposter,

when will TW have to qualify for 3 majors thru season play or direct qualifier?

is he there now?

wonderif they'll change the rules (10 year exemption??...lifetime subject to minimal performance?)

i think the odds of TW each of never winning another or winning a bunch are both higher than people give credit i.e. more likely than people think

You must have cleaned up betting the No each tourney. Funny how the lines didn't move your way.

Rather put up 100k

lol. He won 5 times last year. He is ranked 9th in the world without hardly playing all year.

10 year exemptions for winnings majors have been gone for a long time, it's 5 now. He isn't getting into majors because of winning them in the past, he gets in based on his recent play on tour. 20+ pga tour wins gets you lifetime exemption on pga tour. A reasonably health Woods will have no problems maintaining sufficient stats(top 50 world) to get into all majors.

apparently the 5 year exemption is cross-majors i.e. winning masters gets you 5 year exemption into other 3 majors.

apparently all the majors are lifetime or very long exemptions. so my question turned out to be moot....

and mentioning that he won 5 times last year ties into "qualifying based on recent play", and the window is pretty small (one or two years) so other non-major winners will have to worry about it.

It's 10 years for US/British and lifetime for masters/pga.

The whole thought is ridiculous. You act like he is on the edge of not being qualified if he hand't won in the past, and that's not even close to accurate.

Want to change your story again? And by the way, he's exempt into the Open Championship until age 60.

This is why I pay no attention to most opinions, lack of knowledge and info.

FWIW, OP's wager 2 years ago wasn't horrible, but the same bet now would be without question.

BO

Thanks to everyone for the thoughtful discussion. Enjoying this thread.

Uuuhhh, no. The OP's bet is much better now than it was two years ago. He took the No side.

I still don't like it though. I'd go with yes.

I'm not an MD, but I was staying at a Holiday Inn Express when I wrote this.

BO

you gonna let bo smack you around like that, sabs?

Bo dropping bombs like its the gaza strip

did very many people ever work up a number for tiger to win another?.....

i'd put it at 50/50 i think......... too high, too low??

and if i can just sneak this in here... what do you think odds are that spieth wins a major or more in the next ten years? 60%? higher?

it's tough as it seems like there are so many outstanding players now. the post-tiger's debut generation... rory and i think bubba are expected to win quite a few (i saw some pundits after masters predicting bubba with 2 to 3 more major in next 3-4 years, plus maybe tiger comes back, spieth etc..)