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11-30-2012 , 06:17 PM
Ended up taking NE and loving how the picks ended up for this week:
12 Left;
3 SF
3 Baltimore
2 Buffalo
1 Denver
1 NYJ
1 Cowboys
1 NE (me)
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11-30-2012 , 06:38 PM
^ whenever you're the only one on one of the more favored teams you gotta be pumped. surprised only 1 on dal.
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11-30-2012 , 06:41 PM
I think cuz 7-8 of the 12 had already used them mostly on that Cleveland game that they shoulda all lost lol but survived. Yea a bit surprised on the picks but people r getting desperate, running out of Teams and my position looks only better as the weeks pass, looking good. GL all
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11-30-2012 , 08:22 PM
Local Pool tally. More separation this week

New England 8
Dallas 6
San Fran 4
Baltimore 2
Chicago 2
Denver 2
Houston 2
Buffalo 1
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12-02-2012 , 11:02 PM
6 of 12 eliminated already in my pool thx to SF and Balt losing, looks lil bit of a sweat if Dallas loses even more will be eliminated. Finally some action after only 2 eliminations the past 5+ weeks in mine, looking good.
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12-02-2012 , 11:03 PM
Snuck by with Jets.
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12-02-2012 , 11:13 PM
LET'S GO EAGLES!
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12-03-2012 , 01:57 AM
How lucky did I get to escape with a win with that God awful team they call the Cowboys? The Eagles receivers were wide open all night. Thank goodness for Bryce Browns fumbleitis. He must have caught it from Vick and the rest of the Eagles.
On to next week. I'm thinking of taking the Niners at home. I could also take Indy, Cleveland or Tampa.
Not sure what to do.
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
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12-03-2012 , 02:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by imjosh
My pool gives points as a results of how many points your winning team scores, so I'm trying to pick winners but at the same time winners that will score a lot of points. I'm basically out of the hunt for 1st (-80pts) but I'm only 30pts out of 2nd, in 5th place, so there's still some hope there.

Here is what I'm thinking for rest of the season:

Week 13: Dallas | Buffalo | New England
- Dallas playing a hurt Eagles team, with a much longer rest than Philly has

Week 14: Colts | Buccaneers | Seahawks
- Tampa Bay has scored the 4th most points of any team in league, and are playing a hurt Eagles team

Week 15: Dolphins | Seahawks | Redskins
- This is my big shot in the dark week. I think Dolphins have a higher chance of winning that the Redskins, but looking at the points the Dolphins have put up in the games they have won vs. the amount of points the Redskins have put up, I think Redskins may be +EV here. They have actually scored the 7th most points in the league.

Week 16: New England

Week 17: San Francisco | Seahawks

Thoughts?
Still looking for input on this end-season strategy, mainly this coming week and week 15
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12-03-2012 , 02:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by imjosh
Still looking for input on this end-season strategy, mainly this coming week and week 15
Maybe saints vs tb for week 15. that should be a shoot-out if you haven't used them yet.

rest look good. hard to make suggestions though when we don't know what teams you've used.

what do the standings of your pool look like? are you trying to make up ground, or just hold firm? if you're trying to make ground, you have to a) deduce what the leaders will likely pick, and b) pick someone different from them.
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12-05-2012 , 12:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by imjosh
My pool gives points as a results of how many points your winning team scores, so I'm trying to pick winners but at the same time winners that will score a lot of points. I'm basically out of the hunt for 1st (-80pts) but I'm only 30pts out of 2nd, in 5th place, so there's still some hope there.

Here is what I'm thinking for rest of the season:

Week 13: Dallas | Buffalo | New England
- Dallas playing a hurt Eagles team, with a much longer rest than Philly has

Week 14: Colts | Buccaneers | Seahawks
- Tampa Bay has scored the 4th most points of any team in league, and are playing a hurt Eagles team

Week 15: Dolphins | Seahawks | Redskins
- This is my big shot in the dark week. I think Dolphins have a higher chance of winning that the Redskins, but looking at the points the Dolphins have put up in the games they have won vs. the amount of points the Redskins have put up, I think Redskins may be +EV here. They have actually scored the 7th most points in the league.

Week 16: New England

Week 17: San Francisco | Seahawks

Thoughts?
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
Maybe saints vs tb for week 15. that should be a shoot-out if you haven't used them yet.

rest look good. hard to make suggestions though when we don't know what teams you've used.

what do the standings of your pool look like? are you trying to make up ground, or just hold firm? if you're trying to make ground, you have to a) deduce what the leaders will likely pick, and b) pick someone different from them.
I've taken
HOU,NYG,NO,DEN,MIN,PIT,CHI,GB,SD,BAL,ATL,CIN,DAL(W k13)

Looking at this week, 4 places pay, standings are as follows.

1st - 431pts
2nd - 385 pts
3rd - 364 pts
4th(me) - 356pts
5th - 347pts

1st, 2nd, and 3rd place all have SEA open for this week, and 2nd has SF open (as do I). I'm counting on 2nd taking SF this week so I can take them in Week 17 and hopefully gain some ground that way, if he doesn't take them this week, then I have to assume he will take them in Wk 17 so that's another reason why I'm not taking SEA this week (they play vs. Rams in Wk 17)
3rd place person has already taken TB, and has GB open as well.

Looking at the lines for the games and the points scored / points allowed stats for the favorable match-ups, I'm still thinking my best play here is Tampa Bay.

Best case scenario for me would be all of them taking a team thats not TB and the guy in 2nd taking SF so I can take them in Wk 17.

Although now looking at other's picks, it seems 1st and 2nd place have already taken Indy, so maybe Indy could be a solid pick this week... (although last time they played the game ended 19-13 in OT... not many points scored)

Last edited by beansroast01; 12-05-2012 at 12:47 AM.
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12-05-2012 , 01:02 AM
Survived with Falcons this week. Leaning towards SF or Sea this week. Next week has me seriously perplexed. Have SF, NYG, BALT, CHI, SEA, WASH, CLEV, MIA, NOR, DET plus a few other very mediocre teams available. Leaning towards Mia but don't love them at all.

Advice?

TDA
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12-05-2012 , 01:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Dude_Abides
Survived with Falcons this week. Leaning towards SF or Sea this week. Next week has me seriously perplexed. Have SF, NYG, BALT, CHI, SEA, WASH, CLEV, MIA, NOR, DET plus a few other very mediocre teams available. Leaning towards Mia but don't love them at all.

Advice?

TDA
I think almost everyone will be on Miami in Wk 15, douby many will have Cinci or Houston left. Seattle @ Bills looks like your only other reasonable option for that week
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12-05-2012 , 01:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Dude_Abides
Survived with Falcons this week. Leaning towards SF or Sea this week. Next week has me seriously perplexed. Have SF, NYG, BALT, CHI, SEA, WASH, CLEV, MIA, NOR, DET plus a few other very mediocre teams available. Leaning towards Mia but don't love them at all.

Advice?

TDA
I'm going SF this week as well, really the logical choice because there isn't another good spot to use them the rest of the way.

Week 15 is BRUTAL! Miami looks like the play but I have to say that I don't love that offense. Jaguars are playing better and how inspired will the dolphins be if they get smacked down in San Francisco?
Now if you have the guts of a cat burglar you might want to consider the Raiders. I know they stink but they are playing the chiefs.
How about the Saints? Home against an up and down Tampa team. Saints are always good at home.

I personally try to stay away from taking road teams, especially now that you've made it this far. Be smart and good luck.
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12-05-2012 , 01:31 AM
80 people left in 91K pool. It was a double rebuy pool and we had to pick 2 teams in weeks 1 and 8. Rebuys ended after week 8.
Here is what I think I'll be taking. Would love your thoughts and advice. Every team is home.

Week 14 - San Fran vs. Miami
Week 15 - Texans vs. Colts
Week 16 - Buccaneers vs. Rams
Week 17 - Seahawks vs. Rams

I am trying to figure out how to save the Texans till week 16 when they host the vikings but there are only 2 people left that have the Texans so I think I will play it safe in week 15 and hope for a bunch of upsets. Pools are bound to lose 40 to 50% of their pool these next 2 weeks due to the tough matchups.

Please let me know if you see a flaw in my though process.
Thanks
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12-05-2012 , 01:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nfljoe
80 people left in 91K pool. It was a double rebuy pool and we had to pick 2 teams in weeks 1 and 8. Rebuys ended after week 8.
Here is what I think I'll be taking. Would love your thoughts and advice. Every team is home.

Week 14 - San Fran vs. Miami
Week 15 - Texans vs. Colts
Week 16 - Buccaneers vs. Rams
Week 17 - Seahawks vs. Rams

I am trying to figure out how to save the Texans till week 16 when they host the vikings but there are only 2 people left that have the Texans so I think I will play it safe in week 15 and hope for a bunch of upsets. Pools are bound to lose 40 to 50% of their pool these next 2 weeks due to the tough matchups.

HOWEVER, most people probably don't have SF left at this point, but do have SEA, therefore we can assume most people will take SEA this week, so it is actually probably better in a pool like yours to take SF now, and then take SEA in Wk 17, to maximize the difference in your picks from the field at a sacrifice of some Win% EV

Please let me know if you see a flaw in my though process.
Thanks
If you have HOU available in Week 15 I wouldn't change it no matter what, that has to be the safest pick in Week 15 by a long shot (an dyour week 16 matchup is still very solid) - HOU vs MIN isn't that much better than TB vs STL, but HOU vs IND is probably >>> than anyother matchup you can do in Wk 15.

You could try swapping the weeks you take San Fran and Seattle if you wanted to mix things up...

Why is everyone against SF in Week 17? You guys thinking they won't try because it's last game of season?

Check out these 2 websites BTW:

http://www.survivorgrid.com/
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/tool...vor-predictor/

Lines and win percentages right now say that taking SEA this week and SF week 17 is better. That said, it can't taken into account how well SF will be trying in Wk 17, there's where i'm hoping to get some input from you guys. In my situation I should have SEA and SF both available for Wk 17, so I'll just have to make that decision when the time comes.

HOWEVER, I would expect most have already taken SF at this point, so they will likely take SEA. Therefore if you want, you could probably maximize the difference in your picks and their by picking SF this week and SEA in Wk 17, you probably gain some EV at a loss of the % chance of your teams winning.

EDIT: Come Wk 16 if Washington and Indy are still in the playoff hunt, those could be great picks. Especially INDY, because KC will probably be trying to lose on purpose...

Last edited by beansroast01; 12-05-2012 at 01:42 AM.
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12-05-2012 , 01:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Dude_Abides
Survived with Falcons this week. Leaning towards SF or Sea this week. Next week has me seriously perplexed. Have SF, NYG, BALT, CHI, SEA, WASH, CLEV, MIA, NOR, DET plus a few other very mediocre teams available. Leaning towards Mia but don't love them at all.

Advice?

TDA
TDA do u have Cinci left? I've been eyeing them for Wk 15 for a while, but then again Eagles seem to be improving a bit or maybe it was just Dallas that made them look good and Cinci hasn't been exploding like they used to in recent weeks so might be a lot closer then I initially thought, but still kinda like it versus other choices.
I also had Sea, MIA, Wash written down for other teams I was looking at but I don't trust MIA like you, Wash looking a lil bit better then before, and Seattle on the Road is still not that safe.
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12-05-2012 , 01:53 AM
@imjosh I'm in the same position but leaning lil more towards SF this week, just so I can have Seattle for Wk 15 as a backup option just in case, as I know prob everyone will be on Cinci as we all still have them but wk 15 is gonna be brutal either way I gotta look more into it before I decide for this week. GL
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12-05-2012 , 01:54 AM
Probably gonna go with Seattle this week.
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12-05-2012 , 02:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by imjosh
If you have HOU available in Week 15 I wouldn't change it no matter what, that has to be the safest pick in Week 15 by a long shot (an dyour week 16 matchup is still very solid) - HOU vs MIN isn't that much better than TB vs STL, but HOU vs IND is probably >>> than anyother matchup you can do in Wk 15.

You could try swapping the weeks you take San Fran and Seattle if you wanted to mix things up...

Why is everyone against SF in Week 17? You guys thinking they won't try because it's last game of season?

Check out these 2 websites BTW:

http://www.survivorgrid.com/
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/tool...vor-predictor/

Lines and win percentages right now say that taking SEA this week and SF week 17 is better. That said, it can't taken into account how well SF will be trying in Wk 17, there's where i'm hoping to get some input from you guys. In my situation I should have SEA and SF both available for Wk 17, so I'll just have to make that decision when the time comes.

HOWEVER, I would expect most have already taken SF at this point, so they will likely take SEA. Therefore if you want, you could probably maximize the difference in your picks and their by picking SF this week and SEA in Wk 17, you probably gain some EV at a loss of the % chance of your teams winning.

EDIT: Come Wk 16 if Washington and Indy are still in the playoff hunt, those could be great picks. Especially INDY, because KC will probably be trying to lose on purpose...
You hit it right on the head. I don't believe that San Fran will have anything to play for in week 17. Seattle on the other hand most likely will. And even if they don't there is NO SHOT they'll rest their starters. Teams out of the playoff hunt never do.
Originally I swapped SF and Sea but I think this is probably the safest route.
You should save SEA for week 17. The bills would be the only other decent choice after that. That is unless you want to really gamble and take the Titans at home against the jaguars. LOL!

Good luck buddy
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12-05-2012 , 02:43 AM
6 left and in the only one who can rebuy.

Teams I have left (total AIDS teams excluded):

Patriots
Broncos
Redskins
Vikings
Saints
Bucs
49ers
Seahawks

Week 14 top 3: SFvsMIA SEAvsARI DEN@OAK

Week 15: WAS@CLE NOvsTB MIN@StL

Week 16: DENvsCLE NE@JAC TBvsSTL

Week 17: DENvsKC NEvsMIA SFvsARI

So which teams are we concerned about taking their foots of the gas at the end of the season?

My plan is Seattle, Redskins (rebuy is so clutch for this week), Denver, SF

Last edited by Randal_Graves; 12-05-2012 at 02:59 AM.
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12-05-2012 , 08:15 PM
Went with Tampa Bay.
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12-05-2012 , 08:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Randal_Graves
6 left and in the only one who can rebuy.

Teams I have left (total AIDS teams excluded):

Patriots
Broncos
Redskins
Vikings
Saints
Bucs
49ers
Seahawks

Week 14 top 3: SFvsMIA SEAvsARI DEN@OAK

Week 15: WAS@CLE NOvsTB MIN@StL

Week 16: DENvsCLE NE@JAC TBvsSTL

Week 17: DENvsKC NEvsMIA SFvsARI

So which teams are we concerned about taking their foots of the gas at the end of the season?

My plan is Seattle, Redskins (rebuy is so clutch for this week), Denver, SF
Any reason why you aren't doing

14- DEN
15 - WSH
16 - NE
17- SF
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12-05-2012 , 08:17 PM
If SF isn't gonna go all out week 17 do we think the Pats will be? Will have them as a backup in my plan.
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12-05-2012 , 08:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Randal_Graves
If SF isn't gonna go all out week 17 do we think the Pats will be? Will have them as a backup in my plan.
Who knows if either of them will be, in my suggested plan you could take SEA in Wk 17 as a backup, who will probably be playing for a playoff spot. With NE or SEA you just have to be hoping they will be playing for a bye I think - there's a chance neither could be.
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