I went 18% on Carolina last night, but I decided after the pick locked that it was probably FPS.

Based on pick percentages, you were giving up over 21% of your entry's value picking Carolina over NE this week.

So just to break-even, at some point you need NE to be 27% better than your next best alternative. That's a really big number. It's certainly possible that will happen, but I'd call it less likely than not. I think Brave plays in pools with more double picks which is going to inflate the value of having an extra out by a lot compared to single pick pools.

Jags have a couple key guys on D (among others) out, so it makes more sense now.

I'm not playing in pools with 15 people. I'm playing in field sizes of 7,000, 1,300, 800, 700. These pools are going the distance. When they don't go the distance - like a few years ago - it's because there are weeks that the highest favorited team loses or several lose in the same week. So using the highest favorite strat doesn't work - you'll be eliminated with the masses anyway.

Playing these isn't a perfect science. That's what makes them so fun. I want to be on lesser picked teams all the way throughout - especially toward the end of the season. I think it's worth giving up some EV now in hopes to have lots of EV late.

I went ALLIN on Baltimore. In the entries I already picked them, I split Carolina & Houston. Go ahead and take New England. That's fine. If I'm still in at Week 16-17 (I probably won't be - but neither will anyone), I'll be picking New England. Hopefully, they're playing for #1 seed still. Few entries will have them available. I'll have a 90+% favorite. If the highest picked team wins, I gain a lot. That's the way I see it.

Cliffs... Survivor Pools have nothing to do with picking winners. It's about increasing the EV of your entries. Sometimes that means taking chances early for a great reward later

30$. Double picks in 5 & 10. 3,330 left. Picks locked tonight

Patriots 28%
Ravens 27
Texans 17
Panthers 13
Chiefs 5
Cowboys 3
Browns 3

Everyone else 1 and under

HOU actually makes some sense now that I look at its, because they don't really have any gimmes on their schedule and this is Jags' first game with backup QB and they have a couple key defenders out.

I didn't like CLE last week. This week is defensible, with Darnold out, but then they also have a late season game vs. MIA and a couple late games against CIN when it should mean something for CLE but not CIN.

I thought CAR was a pretty weak pick, but I guess they only have one potential gimme vs. WAS in week 13, so that was defensible.

I guess I figure this is the NFL: Some teams will be decimated by injuries... or lose their starting QB... or be unexpectedly out of it by late season. So there should be opportunities late in the year that don't look that way now.

Ended up going

3 entries on patriots
1 on Baltimore

Only 80 entries left, won’t need to go the distance. Might as well take the free win . Gl.

I took the Ravens last week and I'm deciding between the Steelers and Texans today. Only 9 people in this pool.

Pittsburgh -190 seems like a bad pick in a 9 person pool

Have zero Pats. Mostly Baltimore/Houston and put 1 deep entry on Cleveland. Besides Pats, not really any high pick %s to fade this week.

Fwiw, my read on Nitro pools is the high buy-ins tend to skew harder toward a really big favorite than typical averages or the lower buy-ins. Not sure I'm right about that, but that's my memory of things.

I went:

5 BAL
3 NE
2 CAR (dead)
1 HOU

I had 10% of my equity on Carolina. Today I am mostly on Baltimore and Houston.

6 Baltimore
3 Tenn
2 Clev

The 0.03 Buyin at Nitrogen. 99 left at start of week. Picks were:

39 Baltimore
22 New England
15 Houston
10 Carolina
5 Cleveland
5 Kansas City
1 Dallas
1 New Orleans
1 Pittsburgh

sounds about right. people putting in 10k or 1k probably more likely to pick to minimize chance of losing rather than to maximize ev.

Well the good news is I’m probably going to get all 4 thru, bad news is everyone is getting thru now. Kind of hoping the ravens blow it now .

Carolina, Houston and Baltimore could definitely all lose.

fmp

this whole trying to gain separation isn't really working. LOL. Burned 5 entries so far on Carolina and Tenn this week.

I earned so many Sklansky bucks today. FML.

how do you do this math?

Going ALLIN on Dallas next week in my pools that I didn’t take them in Week 1

If you take New England over Dallas or New England over Baltimore this week, I’ll pray for you


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Might be a pick against Miami every week kinda year

Yeah don't really want to go with the masses but don't see a ton of future value in Dallas

doesnt seem like any real reason to not pick dallas this week