NFL Survivor Picks - Page 187 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Overall % is useful in estimating % for the league going forward.

Like I find my league mirros OfficePool on Survivor grid pretty closely. With the top picks being a few % points higher.

Is there a way to put your own estimates into survivorgrid to calculate EV? Or a site that allows you to do so?

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09-13-2018 , 02:11 AM

#4654

Gallagher_

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 176

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onlydo2days

I built this in Python last year, but I had some errors in how I calculated it and I can't remember now if I ever fixed it. I'll have to dust it off and see.

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09-16-2018 , 09:39 AM

#4655

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Taking more Saints than Rams

Taking ZERO Chargers

Saints in rebuy pools

Have a little Redskins and even less Broncos (no 49ers - saving them for later)

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09-16-2018 , 01:01 PM

#4656

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,766

100% on the Rams.

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09-16-2018 , 03:30 PM

#4657

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,685

I'm on chargers, broncos, saints, niners, Falcons, rams.

Tried to minimize Rams on Nitrogen since so many late entries used them and expected more to use them today, so wanted to be one of only entries to keep them available for a later week. Not sure if good logic.

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09-16-2018 , 08:04 PM

#4658

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

I'm on chargers, broncos, saints, niners, Falcons, rams.

Good week for the kid.

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09-18-2018 , 09:41 AM

#4659

Zimmer4141

Wet

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,667

Can't wait for the legion of 2p2ers coming in here explaining why taking a 17 point favorite is actually the dumb play this week

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09-18-2018 , 10:35 AM

#4660

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,766

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zimmer4141

Can't wait for the legion of 2p2ers coming in here explaining why taking a 17 point favorite is actually the dumb play this week

It's not. The dumb play was me using Minnesota week 1, trying to fade everyone else and now I'm left taking a team I never would have though I would take in my entire life, but YOLO.

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09-18-2018 , 11:39 AM

#4661

Bagliani

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 93

Taking Vikings isn’t dumb obviously, but saving them for week 6 seems like the better play. Everyone will be on Houston that week, it’ll be a great spot to use Vikings.

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09-18-2018 , 12:36 PM

#4662

Gallagher_

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 176

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bagliani

Taking Vikings isn’t dumb obviously, but saving them for week 6 seems like the better play. Everyone will be on Houston that week, it’ll be a great spot to use Vikings.

Sounds pretty reasonable, but you have to account for the uncertainty in that week 6 line. Things could certainly change.

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09-18-2018 , 02:30 PM

#4663

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zimmer4141

Can't wait for the legion of 2p2ers coming in here explaining why taking a 17 point favorite is actually the dumb play this week

Not dumb

Quote:

Originally Posted by EddyB66

It's not. The dumb play was me using Minnesota week 1, trying to fade everyone else.

Not dumb. I took some Minnesota myself for very same reason

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bagliani

Taking Vikings isn’t dumb obviously, but saving them for week 6 seems like the better play. Everyone will be on Houston that week, it’ll be a great spot to use Vikings.

I agree with this too thoug. I think I'm going to go with the Chicago, Houston, Philly, KC and maybe Jags this week and save Minnesota for 6.

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09-18-2018 , 03:56 PM

#4664

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,766

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

Not dumb

Not dumb. I took some Minnesota myself for very same reason

I agree with this too thoug. I think I'm going to go with the Chicago, Houston, Philly, KC and maybe Jags this week and save Minnesota for 6.

Only took me arguing with you for 4 years to realize how important future value is in these things. I guess trying to bink it in week 3 isn't a great strategy.

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09-18-2018 , 05:16 PM

#4665

Zimmer4141

Wet

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,667

I just don’t really see why taking Houston as 7 point favorites then MIN as 14-14.5 point favorites is a superior strategy to taking MIN as 17 point favorites Wk3 then HOU as probably 9.5-10.5 point favorites in Wk6. I don’t know that the value gained in being different is big enough to compensate for the picks being worse according to Vegas lines. Especially because MIN is so unlikely to lose this week.

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09-18-2018 , 06:32 PM

#4666

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,276

Not to mention the fact that it is the NFL. Minn isn't a lock to get to week 6 as a 13pt favorite. Although Houston isn't a lock to be 9 that week obviously either. They have a running QB behind a terrible OL. People should consider stuff like that when assessing FV.

I think when you have a team with 90% WP you mostly just wanna use them.

I'm gonna go Minn all 4 entries of mine.

Definitely running bad so far though.....NO/Denver this week and GB week 1 I didn't have any of and all skated by.

Last edited by Onlydo2days; 09-18-2018 at 06:52 PM.

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09-18-2018 , 07:30 PM

#4667

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,685

16 entries across 5 pools.

Likely going some combo of: Chi, Hou, Min - with sprinkles on Jax, Nwe, KC, Phi

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09-19-2018 , 12:04 PM

#4668

Gallagher_

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 176

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zimmer4141

The difference in the spreads is pretty small. The difference in pick percentages will be enormous. If your pool runs 70% Minnesota then there's no value there.

My bigger hesitation this week is that a lot of the other attractive picks have quite a bit of future value.

Quote

09-19-2018 , 12:10 PM

#4669

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,766

Am I the only one using Clev? YOLO

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09-19-2018 , 01:27 PM

#4670

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by EddyB66

Am I the only one using Clev? YOLO

I'm thinking of YOLOing a few entries on them as well

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09-20-2018 , 12:29 AM

#4671

kazor

Coach PLO

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,123

I like Chicago for this week.

Quote

09-20-2018 , 12:43 AM

#4672

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Lots of directions to go this week. Still leaning no Minnesota and using them later. All on Minnesota certainly a great play too

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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09-20-2018 , 07:46 AM

#4673

TheWhoWhat

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 352

If you are going all-in on the Vikings this week what are you using for Week 9?

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09-20-2018 , 12:56 PM

#4674

bluebarracudas

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 33

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

Lots of directions to go this week. Still leaning no Minnesota and using them later. All on Minnesota certainly a great play too

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

In a double elim pool with one loss already. It's a double pick week and I will be passing on vikings. Pretty much avoiding the top % play from here on out

Quote

09-20-2018 , 01:44 PM

#4675

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluebarracudas

In a double elim pool with one loss already. It's a double pick week and I will be passing on vikings. Pretty much avoiding the top % play from here on out

I wouldn’t take Minnesota in this scenario either. What other weeks are double picks?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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