In week 17 if you had to pick between Green Bay, Oakland, or Washington to win who are you choosing and why?

Washington for the obvious reason

Whoever has the best moneyline, which I'm pretty sure is wash.

NE, sea, was, atl is my recollection

This is a game the Giants typically win. Coming off a bad loss, Cousins coming off a career game. I think the Giants pull it off.

Are you on the Giants ML then?

Washington should win this right because they need it to make the finals and it's a meaningless game for the Giants. Surely even though Giants didn't rest starters they plan to not go 100% and practice some plays for the finals etc

If both teams needed it i'd be on the Giants but I took Was for my midseason pool thats 3 handed this week (the other two took Atl and Sea, so if we all progress i'll consider that a win given they're using stronger teams and no resets for playoffs)

Yes, I will be.

Yup because teams that need to win always win. That easy.

I've done my fair share of criticizing Eddy itt thread in the past. It's warranted, but this below is also very lol worthy

Taking the 2 biggest favorites is nowhere near the optimal strategy. There are 3 other teams with ~70% to win. The other 2 are 78%

I played in this pool 2. Look at the pick breakdown the last few weeks. Everyone is going to take the 2 big favs. Take 2 of the other ones. Much higher EV

In a "pick a loser" survivor pool, with 4 left the picks for week 17 are Cleveland, NY Giants, New Orleans, and we have Detroit.

I'm considering a money line hedge of Pittsburgh, Atlanta, & Detroit it would pay 5-1 according to the money line parlay calculator on vegasinsder.com Pool is 84k with payouts negotiated to 10k guarantee for each of final 4 and then 1st 30k, 2nd 8k, 3rd 4k, and 4th 2k.

Question how much of a hedge is worth taking also pros and cons.

Difference between 4th and 3rd is 2k. and between 3rd and 2nd 4k.

be quite the feat to hedge with a 3 team parlay, but if you feel you must, I'd risk 2k, if you can even get down that much somewhere on a 3 team parlay. I think you would be better off utilizing the "if win" feature.

I'm so confused by the loser pool I can't help you structure a bet, but I'm gonna guess if you aren't in Vegas hedging correctly becomes more troublesome than it's worth. IMO.

Hey Eddy, thanks for the quick reply. I agree it would be quite the feat. I was considering 1k which would pay roughly 5.5k.

I'm in Vegas, so I figure I can get the 4 team parlay in, but I've never made a 4 team parlay bet for that much. Are there limits on 4 team parlays? Where would be best place to put in the parlay? Westgate, Wynn, or someplace else?

I'm sure others can give you much better advice, I just don't know if a 4 teamer to hedge is even +ev. Seems like there's too many ways for you to screw yourself.

If just my pick Detroit gets knocked out I get an extra 5k for risking 1k. finishing with 16.5k

If two of us get knocked out we split 6k two-ways, but I lose 1k, so I finish with 12k.

If three of us get knocked out we spilt 14k three-ways, but I lose 1k, so I finish with 14.5k

If I survive but someone gets knocked out I'm guaranteed 14k, but lose 1k on hedge. So minimum net is 13k. Might also be able to negotiate better payout with other two.

Picks in my pool - 3.88 bitcoin prize pool - ends today

Indy x 2 (damn they should have lost)
Atl x 2 (one is mine)
Was
Sea
Ari

I'm in some danger in my midseason one, hopefully Washington have a big second half. Other two entries are on Atl and Sea.

you know, I was looking back, and I don't think I've ever given a piece of bad advice. Sorry to those who took Washington because they were the lol biggest ML favorite.

Three people left in loser survivor pool. Pool runs through playoffs & SB.

I took Detroit and Miami already. Other two have taken Miami as well. Neither of them have taken Detroit, one did take NY Giants.

So, question who would you take to lose, Oakland, NY Giants, or Houston? It seems probable the other two people will be taking Detroit.

I would take the Giants just so you could hedge, but they aren't losing. Oakland/Houston seems like the game to take. They might both lose.

Do they both still have Oakland & Houston?


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Yes they both have Oakland and Houston available. I'm leaning toward Oakland for sure. I think NY Giants can win, especially with injuries to Green Bay cornerbacks.

I don't envy your position. If you make it through this week, you are in an incredible spot.

I agree Eddy, if I can make it through the "Wild Card" weekend, then I'm guessing everyone would be on Houston to lose at New England.

If and it's a BIG "if" Pittsburgh can beat KC and play at New England for AFC Championship, it would force both them to take one of the NFC teams to lose. That's assuming Miami doesn't pull of a miracle this weekend v. Pittsburgh, but hey Miami DID beat Pittsburgh earlier this year and put 30 points.

I think Dallas is vulnerable to Atlanta and NY Giants. I think Green Bay is really banged up in Defense backfield and will be in trouble v. NY Giants, Atlanta, and/Dallas.

But before I get ahead of myself, need to dodge a huge bullet this weekend.

Don't you just love football!

I have two partners in my pick and one wants to see if other two will negotiate a better payout structure, but I think the other two picks left in pool are unlikely to deal since they both have Detroit available.

Are you taking NY Giants ML again v. Green Bay? I'm really liking the Giants, also think there are problems in Seattle and Detroit plus 8 looks attractive.

I have a big position on Oakland and Giants to win the SB.