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11-30-2016 , 09:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caldarooni
Saving NE is terrible
You can't say this if you don't know how many people are left. Most likely, he should save them till 16. He wouldn't say it if there were only a few people left.

If your pool has 60 people left, it's not ending this week or next barring a lot of upsets (a lot). Many different teams are going to be picked this week and next. Some are getting through to 15. There's a lot of good options in 15. Atlanta will be a 2 TD fav and almost everyone has them left.

Having New England left in 16 when no one else has them is a great spot to be in. Most people will be on Oakland or San Diego. He'll be all alone on New England.

Getting knocked out in 13 isn't any better than getting knocked out in 16 when you're going to be on a Sheep pick, a low favorite pick, or in some cases both.

Save New England and SCOOP later
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11-30-2016 , 09:49 PM
Oh for sure I didn't realize his pool was guaranteed to go 16 weeks
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12-01-2016 , 01:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caldarooni
Oh for sure I didn't realize his pool was guaranteed to go 16 weeks
35 left. 5 of us have NE available now. Lots have GB/PIT/NO. I'm fairly confident it will make it thru week 17 with this many people left. NE is a really good pick now given that only 5 can take them, but I could increase my winning chances to not take them now.
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12-01-2016 , 05:04 AM
just take teams vs the browns after this week
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12-01-2016 , 05:04 PM
Week 13
Seattle or Denver and why
7 left from 85
I know SEA has been widely used this year
That's about all I know
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12-01-2016 , 06:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by h_ven
Week 13
Seattle or Denver and why
7 left from 85
I know SEA has been widely used this year
That's about all I know
I'd play as if your pool is going the full 17 weeks. Seattle will likely have very meaningful games in 16 & 17 as they contend for the 2 seed. I'd save Seattle for then.

Yeah, you're take a lesser team now, but you won't use Denver later and Seattle is in play in 15, 16 & 17
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12-01-2016 , 07:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by h_ven
Week 13
Seattle or Denver and why
7 left from 85
I know SEA has been widely used this year
That's about all I know
you have to have better options than denver available.

NE, SEA, GB, PIT, NO, ATL, SD all have better win odds than DEN
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12-01-2016 , 11:19 PM
Need some some feedback here too

Big pool down to 150 from 3000+. Double
Picks this week- this pool ends after Reg season regardless of how many left.

Leaning towards GB/Atl - here is who I have used: HOU, car, Mia, cin, ne, pit, buf, den, ten, sea, az, Balt, nyg, dal, nor



Other pool - 58 left from 100'ish - this pool runs into playoffs and all teams reset.:


Only decent pick is Atl and that's not great either. I've used: sea, chi, dal, Mia, was, Indy, buf, ten, ne, den, Kc, az, bal, pit, nor


Have San Diego available but TB playing decent having won 3 straight.
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12-02-2016 , 01:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inland_Taipan
Only decent pick is Atl and that's not great either.

Have San Diego available but TB playing decent having won 3 straight.
ATL 4.5 pt fave, SD 3.5 pt. If you're only worried about favorites, go ATL.

Doesn't look like you've used GB. They are a better pick.
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12-02-2016 , 11:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inland_Taipan
Need some some feedback here too

Big pool down to 150 from 3000+. Double
Picks this week- this pool ends after Reg season regardless of how many left.

Leaning towards GB/Atl - here is who I have used: HOU, car, Mia, cin, ne, pit, buf, den, ten, sea, az, Balt, nyg, dal, nor
What other weeks are double pick weeks?
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12-02-2016 , 10:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk
What other weeks are double pick weeks?
Double picks the rest of the way.....more than likely based on remaining # of entries. Not feeling great about my chances lol....

Is it a bad idea to use same team (GB) in both pools....I generally try not to do that unless it's big favorite.
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12-02-2016 , 10:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inland_Taipan
Double picks the rest of the way.....more than likely based on remaining # of entries. Not feeling great about my chances lol....
.
Assuming it's double the rest of the way...

I'd go Green Bay and whomever is least available to choose for those remaining between Oakland & San Diego.

I'd save Atlanta for Week 15. You'll be much better off having them for there than taking them in 13 and having only a slightly better chance of winning over Oakland or San Diego.

Atlanta is your best chance of scooping. You want to see a lot of people taking them in 13 & 14. Less on them in 15 the better for you
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12-04-2016 , 01:00 PM
Anyone have a cell # for A. Rodgers. His hamstring is a little tweeked and I have GB in both my pools and I have lost that loving feeling.

Not a lot of other options tbh and GB is showing -7 /-290 on some sites but I hate being overexposed lol...have survived 14 weeks in both pools and hate to lose both on one team. #sweating
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12-04-2016 , 02:04 PM
ugh rolled with Packers. Feel it gives me a better chances of winning overall than going with Patriots this week.
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12-04-2016 , 05:07 PM
lol atl
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12-04-2016 , 07:29 PM
Lots like lots gone from my pool on Saints and Falcons. On quick glance everyone else with Patriots took them this week so I may be only person left with them. Possibly 1 other has them available. Nitrogen isn't the easiest to look on.

Some of Oakland, Seattle, Pittsburgh, SD losing would be nice.

Rest of season I think looking like:

DET vs Chi
ATL vs SF
NE vs NYJ
MIN vs Chi
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12-05-2016 , 10:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts

DET vs Chi
ATL vs SF
NE vs NYJ
MIN vs Chi
Very, very nice. glgl
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12-05-2016 , 12:55 PM
I manually checked Nitrogen. 25 left. We lost 10 this week which is nice. I am only person with NE remaining.

Argument could be made to use them this week vs BAL and hope CHI beats DET which is where the majority of teams will be (haven't assessed how many have them left, but I assume most). Think I'm better off keeping them for Week 16.
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12-05-2016 , 01:26 PM
Bloodbath in my big pool. Lost close to 100 entries...down to 50's. Escaped with GB/Oak. Needed to lose 6-8 more to have single picks so it'll be double picks again this week. Need to survive 4 more weeks.

Detroit for sure with other pick being likely Indy or TB.

Other pool down to 49...had GB in that one also.
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12-06-2016 , 10:37 AM
According to Yahoo, 63% are on Detroit in Week 14 while 18% have Atlanta. No other team has been picked by more than 7%.
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12-06-2016 , 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazy Joe Davola
According to Yahoo, 63% are on Detroit in Week 14 while 18% have Atlanta. No other team has been picked by more than 7%.
End-game Survivor is a real different pickle. Makes me sick to my stomach taking a team that 60% of others are on...but not taking them either means I'm taking a team with less win odds (Det -325, Bengals -232, Falcons -238) or burning my one advantage I have being the only entrant with NE left (-315). There aren't really any other good options for Week 16, so I have to save NE.

Week 15 ATL vs SF and BUF vs CLE should both be substantial favorites. Just did some research...half of the remaining teams have taken Buffalo, which means they are very likely to be on ATL for week 15, which makes them less likely to be on them this week.

If this was early in the season I would happily take Cin, Atl or even a team with less win odds. In fact it would probably be better EV to take Chicago instead of Detroit.


Revised Picks:

Week 14: DET vs CHI (-325) or ATL @ LA (-238)
Week 15: BUF vs CLE
Week 16: NE vs NYJ
Week 17: MIN vs CHI

Last edited by housenuts; 12-06-2016 at 12:17 PM.
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12-06-2016 , 12:07 PM
I don't think it changes the strategy much, just higher stakes. 15 left in my pool. Probably going with Cincinnati if betting lines stay as they are now
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12-06-2016 , 02:36 PM
seattle at home next week vs rams
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12-07-2016 , 08:54 PM
Situation: 4 teams left out of 32, and I have 2 of the 4. Nobody has picked Detroit yet out of the 4 teams. It's a Detroit based league and figure the other 2 teams are likely to pick Detroit as well this week. I have both Cincinnati and Indy available as other picks. I am the only person not to take Cincy yet, nobody has taken Indy yet. Double picks start week 16.

I would really like to avoid taking the same team (Detroit) with both picks but I feel it might be the best option. It is very possibly that everyone picks Detroit and even in the event of a loss I get half the prize pool (being that I have 2 of the remaining 4 teams).

Don't like Cincy with the Browns coming off a bye and knowing it is their best chance to win a game, the game means a lot more to them than the Browns.

Indy...well I really don't trust, the are also an option in week 17 vs Jax with double picks.
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12-08-2016 , 02:20 PM
^ do you have an advantage over them in the coming weeks? I think I would definitely split my picks. Detroit + someone else. Gives you a chance of winning outright this week. Worst case it's down to 3 of you all with 1 pick left. For the 2nd team, I'd just take the next biggest favorite which right now looks to be Indy.
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