Going with the Cowboys

Fins over the Browns at home.

D word.

Is this a handicapping thread or survivor strategy thread. Two different things imo and the general public can't handicap.

Even split between Dallas & Miami. Want to keep Carolina, Green Bay & Seattle for later even though Dallas & Miami will be highest selected teams this week

I have two entries on Miami and the other on Arizona. Subject to change.

Going with Miami even though too many others are simply because they have zero future value.

cinci at home vs mia wk4

Managed to survive with 3/3 entries intact this week with Miami x2 and Dallas

I have Sea/Car/Mia, Sea/Car/Dal and KC/Car/Mia so haven't lost an entry yet, but did burn some Sea/Car picks early. The pool i'm in has a no Thursday games pick rule so CIN is out for next week.

Thinking something like 1x Hou and 2x Wash at the moment but don't have to lock picks in for a few days so I guess i'll think about it a bit more.

This is why I rolled with Miami. They tried to blow it. Glad they are dead to me now.

Dal x3, sea x2 and lost 1 with tb

Leaning Bengals in Week 4. Washington will probably be high pick rate but the Browns actually have some real explosiveness and versatility with Pryor that makes me afraid of picking against them unless it's a top team. Also it's a Thursday game and Miami has to travel while the Bengals stay put. I know that's probably factored into the line but it counts for something imo, same reason people try to pick home teams and avoid division rivals

I've already used Baltimore & Houston with most of my entries, so I want to save Arizona for 10. Will be very heavy on Washington. 2nd week in a row I'll stacking on the highest picked team, but I want to save New England and most of my Cincy for later.

I'd be extremely wary of taking the Redskins this week. This is exactly the type of game they have lost for the last 15 years.

Also, don't save teams--impossible to say how Arizona will be playing when November rolls around and what their health will be like.

I don't handicap games.

If you don't save teams, you'll be on the same team as everyone else late in the season. I look for paths that will allow me to scoop the pool, not chop multiple ways.

ive done raiders/jets/mia so far

My pools small enough with 31 entries uniqueness isn't too but a concern it's down to 16 already and 3 are mine

Have one entry left in a massive pool.

Used HOU, NYG and MIA so far.

Thinking of going with SD vs NO @ home. Thoughts?

With it being a massive pool it does feel like using the teams with no future value early is a big plus. How massive are you talking, hundreds or thousands or tens of thousands of entries?

I'm in a different spot in my pool with it being a lower entry one with 31 entries and only about 12-13 unique players with max 3 entries per player and now i'm left with 3/16 of the remaining entries, plus there's the added variable of no Thursday night games for my pool. It seems quite likely my pool will be over before the end of the regular season, so saving a unique path seems less important than in a larger pool. I'd have definitely used at least once Bengals pick this week if I could. I'm very tempted to just split three of the three biggest favourites and take 1 each of WA, AZ and Hou but it does feel like a wasted pick on Arizona to some extent. That said, their week 10 and 15 games are the only other obvious spots to take them and it shouldn't be too bad to use them on a single entry. There will be better weeks to take Houston too probably. Multiples on Washington scare me a bit, I have to put at least one pick there but the Browns have come close the last two weeks to some extent and even though they seem to suck they don't suck as much as I thought they would despite being 0-3.

Now i'm sort of considering the Chargers too, no real future value, but it feels like a bit of a crap shoot. Was thinking 2x Was and 1x Hou for a bit and 1-1-1 was-hou-ari at various stages, now i'm leaning 2x Was and 1x Ari but I guess i'll wait a bit and see if there's any steam on/against any of the four teams i'm considering and decide late in the week.

about 8K to start but down to about 4K now.

SD/NO seems like a shootout and both defenses are decimated so definitely a scary pick.

I have ARZ locked in right now but we'll see.

The no future value unique picks def have more value in the big pools. I'd be far more likely to have at least 1 Chargers pick if my pool had say 500+ entrants left. For the time being i'm on 2x Was and 1x AZ, but I might switch off one of the Was ones if serious money comes against them or if the Texans or Chargers get bet in a bit.

I'd probably only spend one on Was. If it loses, it should be able to wipe out over half of your pool. Def worth fading two of your picks for that possibility.

13 out of 17 left in my pool, 8 entries on Miami last week including mine. Think I'm going Cincy this week, although Arizona should be a good spot also. I figure there will be a lot on washington and if they lose it helps me tremendously, plus there shouldn't be a point where I ever NEED to use them. Burned Seattle and Carolina already in addition to Miami.

They should be the most picked team and since I have 3 picks and it isn't a disaster if I lose one assuming it takes out 3-4 people maybe I should move one. I was thinking Houston before but they have more future value than the Chargers. Shame I can't pick Cinci due to the unusual rules of the pool.

Am I missing something in why Pittsburgh are decent favs over KC at home? Yes, they should be favs but they played terribly last week - or doesn't that really matter in terms of the next week's expectation?

Going to move one entry over from Was to SD to be 1-1-1 for now and that way if Washington lose, it'll probably improve my EV and it's not the biggest disaster if I lose one entry this week as long as a couple of others bust as well

It's a tough one for me too , I have San Diego picked right now but saints can show up any minute however chargers blew out the jags at home and saints offense isn't the best on the road so I may just ride with them

I hate the San Diego pick. Just seems like insanity. They have almost zero home field advantage.