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| Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events. |
10-31-2009, 09:06 AM
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#151
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old hand
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Sports betting
Posts: 1,733
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
None of the 11 remaining in my one pool picked Chicago. I did at first but changed like a poosy.
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10-31-2009, 02:24 PM
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#152
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20k hands/day
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: UCLA
Posts: 5,703
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
Quote:
Originally Posted by mulebennett
Question for the strategists around here. I'm in two pools, one is down to 11 and the other 26, so they aren't massive, and they are one-strike-and-you're-out.
With that said, I've made it this far taking the same team in both pools. At some point should I diversify my picks? If so, should I have been doing that from the start?
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Is winning both pools twice as good as winning one? Is there money/pride for places other than first? If so, do you care what place you get if you don't win?
Picking the best team for both leagues has the highest EV, but if your objective is to make sure you win at least one league, or get a certain place, it might be better to diversify.
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11-01-2009, 03:24 PM
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#153
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Outwit, Outplay, Outlast
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 5,870
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
The distribution of picks in my league this week was about:
SD 50%
CHI 25%
ARZ 8%
IND 7%
DAL 6%
NO 3%
So far, the Bears and Cowboys look to go through quite easily. IND is in a dogfight, while the Cards, Chargers (my pick this week) and Saints have yet to kick off. Go 49ers!
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11-01-2009, 06:39 PM
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#154
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20k hands/day
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: UCLA
Posts: 5,703
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
NO vs. CAR or ATL vs. WAS? I don't have GB @ TB, and picking bad teams over worse teams scares me (SEA vs. DET and SF vs. TEN). I guess IND vs. HOU maybe, but I don't like it to be honest.
I kind of want to save ATL for week 12 vs. TB.
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11-01-2009, 07:00 PM
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#155
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Getting kicked in the balls by life
Posts: 11,880
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
Glad to have SD out of the way, they are absolutely not to be trusted.
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11-01-2009, 08:35 PM
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#156
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centurion
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 172
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
Moving on here as well folks. Arizona and Detroit cleaned up a few stragglers but not much. A Falcons win tomorrow night is certainly welcoming. Every little bit helps at this stage of the game.
For Week 9, I am looking at Altanta vs. Washington (more so if the Falcons loses tomorrow night) and Seattle vs. Detroit (especially if Calvin Johnson doesn't play)
2 more candidates for Week 9 are Jacksonville (Larry Johnson is suspended?) and San Fran. Certainly need to look more into these games.
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11-02-2009, 12:07 AM
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#157
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 7,574
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
Quote:
Originally Posted by True North
Glad to have SD out of the way, they are absolutely not to be trusted.
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I was a little skeptical of the the huge spread and ML on San Diego but I picked em anyway.
Next week will be tough for those who have already picked GB.
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11-02-2009, 08:50 AM
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#158
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Outwit, Outplay, Outlast
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 5,870
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
Quote:
Originally Posted by slickpoppa
Next week will be tough for those who have already picked GB.
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I disagree. Green Bay @ Tampa Bay is a solid choice, but there are a ton of great home options to choose from this week.
SF, IND, SEA, ATL, JAX, and even CHI (in some order) are good bets to win on home turf. Take your pick.
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11-02-2009, 12:01 PM
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#159
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Getting kicked in the balls by life
Posts: 11,880
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
Not to mention NO, for everyone who didn't take them in week 1.
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11-03-2009, 06:31 AM
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#160
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centurion
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 172
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
Quote:
Originally Posted by accobra_kid
I disagree. Green Bay @ Tampa Bay is a solid choice, but there are a ton of great home options to choose from this week.
SF, IND, SEA, ATL, JAX, and even CHI (in some order) are good bets to win on home turf. Take your pick.
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Agreed.
Moneyline-wise, Pinny thinks Seattle and New England have better chances of winning than Green Bay, with quite a few games yet to have a line.
I don't know if a lot of folks still have New England though. I hope Calvin Johnson is not playing. This is also the Seahawks' best chance to win another game, save for when they host Tampa further down the road.
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11-03-2009, 08:08 AM
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#161
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Getting kicked in the balls by life
Posts: 11,880
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
Top lines right now:
Carolina @ New Orleans -14 (up to -15 at Planet Hollywood)
Miami @ New England -10.5
Washington @ Atlanta -10
Detroit @ Seattle -10
Green Bay -9.5 @ Tampa Bay
Honestly, that Seattle game looks really tempting. I've already used up GB and NE, and NO and Atl both have games that will be just as good down the road (both are still to host Tampa Bay).
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11-03-2009, 09:02 AM
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#162
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 7,574
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
Quote:
Originally Posted by canabiz
Agreed.
Moneyline-wise, Pinny thinks Seattle and New England have better chances of winning than Green Bay, with quite a few games yet to have a line.
I don't know if a lot of folks still have New England though. I hope Calvin Johnson is not playing. This is also the Seahawks' best chance to win another game, save for when they host Tampa further down the road.
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NO and NE are good picks if you still have them, but I think most people have used one or both of those by now. I'm not touching Seattle. As bad as Detroit is, picking a team that has 2 rushing TDs all season just doesn't sit well with me.
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11-03-2009, 12:49 PM
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#163
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20k hands/day
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: UCLA
Posts: 5,703
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
If I had more people in my pool I would probably gamble with Seattle, but with only 4 left I'm going with New Orleans.
9: NO v CAR
10: MIN v DET
11: PIT @ KC
12: ATL v TB
13: DEN @ KC
14: BAL v DET
should all be huge favs and my pool will likely be done by then.
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11-05-2009, 01:51 PM
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#164
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Getting kicked in the balls by life
Posts: 11,880
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
The more I think about it, the more I think Seattle is a total stay-away. With no Tatupu and with Megatron probable for Sunday's game, I think it's just too much of a gamble.
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11-05-2009, 02:13 PM
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#165
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old hand
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Sports betting
Posts: 1,733
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks
Megatron is a game time decision.
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