No problem. I'd prefer it that people point out things I am doing that look wrong.



Ok .... why? So you think those aren't worth looking into.


This article does appear to be written by a different guy though and his conclusion is they won 73.33% .... though I don't know what his source is for the numbers:

http://www.thesportsgeek.com/sports-...easer-betting/

afaik it is all datamined.


According to justin7's book PC offered to take any action he wanted on these billthecop teasers. I will trust what PC says.

The article actually specifically says that he didn't datamine it ... though obviously I couldn't say for sure whether or not that is true. But anyway ... in a sports betting context what does datamine mean? I don't know; I know what it means in a poker context.

Also, who is PC?

datamining in the negative sense is to sample parts of a larger population data set that are too small for reliable statistical inferences to be made about the validity of any patterns discovered.

Oh. Thanks.

Pinnacle will also take action on these at -225.

no pinny drop downs on preseason? i found them somewhat useful B4...

i have no way to reliably estimate EV for preseason, any1 have any suggestions about how to guess at a staking plan. a few % more than usual?

actually, i have no idea how to size up teasers anyway, just use the info Calm, Tom Cowley and Shipit once posted and then i proceed to screw it all up. guess i'm not the only 1 who finds optimising teaser EG, especially combined with hedging, more than a little bit challenging.

any resources (where the formulas r actually readable) would be really helpful to me, prolly others as well.

U guys that haven't yet reached legendary status here, do u mind me asking what u guys do? r u able to do this properly or do u sort of guess?

last year i think that i over bet horribly not sure i want to do that again tho.

thanks for any ideas

Perpetualczech?

PC vs Imben was some of the best reads there was here last 2 years.

+1

when two very smart people hate each other and want to outsmart each other its +EV for everyone in internet land

You can do a rough estimate and get close to an idea of your proper sizing by putting in some effort and coming to some conclusions, which you seem to already have done.

Trying to figure out if you want to bet 5.62% of your bankroll instead of 5.76% of your bankroll across 7 teams is a giant waste imo. After considering the simultaneous game variables, along with various subsets, and possible hedging purposes and returns and optimal bankroll sizing at different outs for various types of teasers, it's damn near impossible to take advantage of properly anyway. What if you placed a derivative of one of those teams already? glhf figuring that out.

Anyone who isn't at like the top 1 in 10,000 sports bettors should not be spending more than ~15 minutes formulating a plan imo. I have never even looked at exactly what percent I should be betting on teasers.

Just have a good estimate of what your Kelly stake should be and spend your time doing something else.

YAY, i'm not completely totally **** at this

thanks B00T, i'll do exactly as u suggest (not that i have many choices). i went to a university today to try to find a maths prof who would be willing to help me professionally. dude wouldn't even let me explain properly before the usual contempt and scepticism blocked any outside-the-box thinking he may have had

do u guys sometimes get the same feeling, like when u go to see ur bank manager/new girlfriend's parents or something.

anyway does any1 know how to get the formulas outta this? might be helpful to some. http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...ed-wagers.html

the amount of gas you euros spend to drive to a uni to talk to some hump who has no idea what you are even asking probably cost you more EV than not betting Kelly exactly in this situation

"Trying to figure out if you want to bet 5.62% of your bankroll instead of 5.76% of your bankroll across 7 teams is a giant waste imo." Agree with this, I'd rather be looking for more bets if it is a sunday morning. There is a certain amount of time spent before one is just squeezing an EG penny + the opportunity cost issues with that time of squeezing said penny. Also agree that it does become a clusterfk often with so many positions, not to mention the market moving - it may often be almost impossible to try to optimally bet.

But even if it's just a theory exercise, I believe that exploring how to bet optimally can be an excellent use of time during the dog days of summer. Theory work could turn into a program that turns a clusterfk of situations and spits out your legs and stake sizes. This can be especially helpful in situations where betting limits are not an issue. If one is able to build/use a program that spits out optimal bet sizes with the appropriate leg in these situations and where you can get half to full kelly down consistently this adds up quickly ie ++EG and of course help avoid having some -EG situations. Never looking up what exactly you should bet on teasers is leaving money on the table for minimal effort, this takes 10 minutes and over the span of years can mean many more monies especially since most advantage gamblers who don't know the optimal stake size end up under betting.

Basically I'm just fishing for you to call me a 1 in 10,000 sports bettor.

Yeah, such a program would be awesome. Getting one that can factor in that you've already bet Team X -6 for first half of a game and then they suddenly drop to -8.5 from -10 and fall into teaser range where you have to addon to other teams and team x is never gonna happen unfortunately.

I know I am not betting teasers optimally. It's a leak and I can live with that, and not advocating people do the same. I just feel that everyone doesn't factor in the opportunity cost as you described. Everyone can always spend their time hunting out one more $50-100 bonus over the course of the month or always pushing the boundaries of EV or what is borderline obsessive behavior.

I don't know if you are a 1 in 10,000 sports bettor. You don't post enough on the forums.

Holy s#%$