Time for teasers.

Pinnacle and Heritage have preaseason week 1 lines up. Legends and Bodog don't. I haven't looked elsewhere at the moment.

Does Legends allow teasing on preseason games? If not then I might be stuck for a week or two with my best option being -110 two teamers.


Right now:

Browns look good.
Giants look good.
Jets look good.

All at +3: Ravens (-113), Dolphins (-118), Vikings (-104). Could maybe be good. All have low totals of course.

Redskins at +1 could maybe be a good 6.5 pointer.

Bucs are a pk at Pinny. If could get +1 somewhere could be a good 6.5 pointer.

just looking at random points is bad overall, but worse in the pre season IMO

i would tease basically every udog cept washington and tampa game

Do you mean looking at random points in time as opposed to looking shortly before the game? If so, yea I didn't actually make any bets yet. I was just checking out the lines looking for possible BS teasers.

Or did you mean looking for certain point spreads? I was just trying to pick out the BS teasers. Just picking out those point spreads should generally be fine, no?

Or did you mean something else?


Is the reason you think teasing basically all dogs is good because the totals are so low? Is that what pushes the math to being +ev to just tease all dogs getting a decent number of points?



As for Washington and Tampa: Do you think that doing 6.5 point teasers on a +1 generally isn't good? I don't really think that I have the ability to analyze all the different games for teasers and come up with the percent chance to win. I'll basically just stick with the BS teasers and at +1 a 6.5 point teaser does cross the 3 and the 7. Plus in these specific games the totals are low of course.



Lastly, Pinnacle has Tampa at pk (+100) I would think that if another book has Tampa at +1 then doing a 6.5 point teaser would be pretty good. No? You're getting an extra point from the Pinnacle line and with the 6.5 points on the teaser you cross the 3 and the 7.

the difference between pk and -1/+1 is pretty small. I suggest you get a push chart and analyze it, you'll see some pretty interesting stuff if you look enough.

push chart is pretty useless in this situation (though the -1/1 thing is sort of true but in pre season you do see times when a team will go for 2 to either go up or down by one instead of tying it in the preseason). not big enough sample size for pre season + regular season push chart doesn't apply. points are worth much more in pre season

Yea, the one is like 2% to 3% I think.

I was thinking that if a +1 could be a profitable (or close to profitable) 6.5 point teaser then it would be even just slightly better if the true line (Pinnacle line) was pk and you could find it at +1, which might be possible with the Bucs this week. Getting the 1 extra point isn't the major consideration. It's whether teasing from 1 to 7.5 is profitable .... though in this case getting that extra one point would also help a little.

At -120 two teamers you need ~73.9% to break even and at +160 three teamers you need 72.7% to break even.

I think that in the 90's getting an extra 6.5 points and crossing the 3 and the 7 teams covered ~77% of the time. I think 2000 to 2008 they covered ~72.5%. I think in 2009 and 2010 they covered a little more often than they did in 2000-2008. Road favorites covered a bunch less than the other three categories.



All the BS teasers seem to have covered a good bit more in the 90's than they did during the 2000's. Anybody have a theory as to why? Or might it just be normal variance?

how accurate is the data from the 90s? what is the source?

could explain a lot

Oh, I suppose it could not be accurate. I simply took it from Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. I took the 2000 to 2008 numbers from there also.

Do you think they may not be accurate?



EDIT:

His numbers for 6 point teasers that cross the 3 and the 7 are in the 90's ~76% covers and in 2000 to 2008 ~70.6% covers (71.7% without road favorites).

According to wizard of odds 2000 - week 4 of 2010 had 72.54% covers.

yea but where is his source? sunshine CSV? covers? USA Today? all of those are inaccurate

less efficient market in the 90s

bias towards certain sides in the 90s (which i think leads to one subset of teasers being considered "unfavorable" and ppl advise to not use them because of some random reasoning)

doesn't include juice

game was played differently with big rule changes between 90s/00. people actually have to be top of the lines athletes now

etc.

i think having pinny/bm/greek data from 05-present is much better than having nfl lines from 1976-present even though smaller sample size, it's better quality data.

Yea, I do not know what his source is.

I don't know exactly what source wizard of odds used for 200 - week 4 of 2010 either.



How would one go about putting the data together for 2005 - Present?



And I know I've seen Bill the Cop's +4.5 to +5.5 teasers before and according to the following article they've gone 73.33% from 2006 to Present, though road dogs have done much better than home dogs. Worth looking into that?

http://www.thesportsgeek.com/sports-...easer-betting/

also lego you should absolutely not be paying -120 for two teamers and be getting better than +160 for 3s

Those numbers were for 6.5 point teasers. Do you get better than that somewhere for 6.5 point teasers?

For 6 point teasers I definitely wouldn't bet worse than -110 for 2 teamers and +180 for 3 teamers. Legends has -107 for 2 teamers.


I know BetPop has better than normal odds for two team teasers. I don't have an account there at the moment though. Does anybody know anything about that book? Trustworthy?

oh sorry i thought you were talking about 6 pointers

Do not trust anything bill the cop says.