Quote:
Originally Posted by spooner90
Do the same platforms offer buy and sell? What difference does that have to an exchange (in this instance - Cantor?)
Are you pretty much paper trading (micro trading) to test this arbitraging model? Is it purely arbitraging that you're doing to create the middle opportunities?
What do you estimate probability for it to hit the profitable range based on what you're currently trading?
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I used to do a lot of arbs and middles on line movements and incorrect pricings in sports. I just stick to value (+ev risk) betting now since I now have a roll to do so.
I'm yet to look at exchanges. Things can get quite frantic whilst watching currency and price movements. Having to make sure the exchange has required volume may be too much. I don't understand how exchanges would work here, binary markets are so much more volatile than sports. I don't see why punters would ever have bets sitting there, any major currency movements and they would get eaten alive.
I'm trying to profit by short term imbalances in the binary providers models, arbs exist!!!! So clearly there are many short term imbalances that can be exploited.
I betting with real $$, I've placed a few larger bets when it looks quite obvious that I'm getting the better end of it and when the market appears to have low volatility. When the fx market is jumping around or when I'm taking the outside range I've being placing smaller anmounts.
No, I'm taking any opportunity that appears profitable. The providers (I'm currently only using 2) offer a limited number of lines, so it is quite rare to find pure arb (lines need to be the same). Mygoal is to primarily take middles and take arbs as they appear.
Estimating the probability of hitting my range is quite tricky. I know that if the recent past was volatile then the future will be too. Currently I'm just looking at previous trading ranges and assuming the future trading range will be similar. A lot more work to do in that!!! As I get around to it the plan is to get a live feed of fx prices pass those into Matlab or similar and generate some type of volatility indicator and then use that to determine probability of landing in my range.
I too have been quite successful in middling sports. But after having restrictions on my personal accounts and on the accounts of the 15 or so friends accounts I used, I'm looking for other ways to profitably gamble. I'm currently able to bet about 1/10 the volume I used to...... that's not enough to generate income.
Wonder how quickly the binary providers will limit my account/s????!?!?!?