FWIW the O/U on the WAS/PHI game has dropped a bunch down to 186.5

Hmmmmm

Uh, so I parlayed the overs on the Phi/Was and Phx/Den games...

And I just spent the better part of the first 3Qs in the Phi/Was game thinking I bet on the under.

Please tell me others have done this before.

I loved both bets fwiw

1 game still in progress

Great work!

Golden State at Sacramento
In their last met, both teams were just average 73% at the line & 46% FG and yet put a total 203 points on the board. We should see a solid double-double from Marcus Thornton & Tyreke Evans, Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry and Dorell Wright.

Take over 203.5 Points
SACRAMENTO +3 score: 95-91 kings
poor shooting & a combined 34 turn overs

fixed the header; swap home and away

New Jersey at New York
Who wouldn't want to play under these bright light of MSG ?, This is where players show case their scoring and new sneakers. These cross town rival will sure put up some points with a shootout exhibition for the fan. Guess who is back ? yes, Kris Humphries, at last the nets gave him the longest contract, with 1 year deal.

Take over 193.5 Points

Houston at San Antonio
The spurs will bounce back at home, the last time the booker put 188.5 Points is during the playoff games. we know Houston will love to run transition game with their younger players, this is where the spurs can learn which rotation is worked best for them in handling it. Their brightest star Matt Bonner will shoot lights out.

Take over 188.5 Points

Portland at Utah
Portland's 2nd unit should be good enough to win on the road against the Jazz as They will look to tweak their rotations. It's time for them to dust off Greg Oden for say 5 mins a game.

Take Portland -2.5

LA Lakers at LA Clippers
The Lakers didn't land CP3 and Dwight Howard as expected, the bad news had finally reached north korea, well guess what ? Kim Jong-Il was so shocked, chocked and had a heart attacked because of it; yes, seriously. We now know NBA can do amazing thing. This guy had survived many assassination attempts by 007, drug by CIA & it's not even funny.

Mike Brown had enough sweat with Lakers' defense whether its a preseason game or not, the fan know what they want, unload Pau Gosal
or else.

Take under 203.5 Points

Hahahah I <3 u so much, excellent write up and analysis.

Fwiw, my model has demonstrated that the game total value usually favors the under. This makes sense to me as the squares are probably going to take the over as it is exciting to watch both teams pile up the points. Then the books can profitably shade the totals a few points higher and make money.

However, I've seen a lot of totals the last couple days that are way lower than I had expected, I'm guessing it's an over-reaction to the low totals that have been put up by the teams in the first few pre season games.

Is it a result of a slow start after a lockout? Is is a result of them not caring as much because it's preseason? Although the results don't matter toward the season, it's hard to ignore the value in these games.

I'll follow up in a few minutes with the stuff that I agree with you on, I'm running the games through my model now.

New here.. hopefully we're allowed to ask questions about peoples bets..

Nets at Knicks. They scored 175 in game 1 and the Knicks look completely terrible with Bibby, Balkman and Jeffries in the game. They actually had problems getting it over half court. Do we think the Starters play that many more minutes in this game or do they just get a little sweat and get ready for Xmas day vs Boston? Nets have alot of athletic guys who can't really shoot either. The Knicks backup bigs are quite capable of fouling and not being able to block shots which sounds good because free points without the clock moving, but kinda slows down the pace of games and not a ton of 3's going in.

I like the under in the Lakers game. Kobe hurt his wrist a little in game 1 and was generally too aggro for a preseason game IMO. Think he sticks to some jumpers to test it out and their backups can't score at all. Clippers will have to score like 120+ to go over I think.

(Obv not entirely sure how many minutes starters will get w/ the lockout and only 2 regular season games.. if anyone has more input on that please post)

This is sick. My picks are so in line with yours. I'm interested in your model it seems like we're coming up with similar picks.

I'm actually running 2 different models concurrently. They usually sync up but sometimes don't. The interesting one is the Portland game. Model one has them a slight underdog, but model 2 has them as a massive favorite. So I'm staying away, but my 2nd model agrees with you.

My picks for tomorrow in order of value are:

Rockets/Spurs Over 187
Raptors/Celtics Over 186
Nets/Knicks Over 192.5
Lakers/Clippers under 203.5

This bolded play comes up as extremely strong in both models and couple it with the fact that you like I will be making a hefty bet on it.

GL tomorrow!

If you watch the suns at Denver today, you probably have seen both teams were full press for the balls to move up the court in the first half but yet they scored total 220 points +, the point is, upper tempo teams will catch fire with their shooting as it goes, the Knicks is no exception at MSG. The nets can put up some points with their backup guards.

good luck, I am leaning toward clip +1.5 as well, below is my take as per copy from other forum:



Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace_of_Spades
Lakers just got bounced by 19, do the Lakers hit back? Is that line a sucker bet?

It's appeared lakers took nothing personal from that game but you can sense that They are lacked team chemistry, that temporary sense of awaiting for changes to come; in contrast to the clippers they've that rejuvenation from good acquired pieces that give them instant energy and a sense completion and now just go to work; in short*We have seen a vast different between two good teams with a big mis match at point guards which translated to abundant different of offense efficiency.

This line is no fluk, cp3 do make a big different IMO, last year with the hornets he took it to the lakers -western conference first round. *now with a vast young talents clippers to work with, plus billups in the mix; outstanding.

I don't know about this lakers, there's a flock of distractions right now, new coach, new system Kobe with the divorce going on, the wheel is coming off.

I think the Clippers will pound the lakers again or at least a win by 7 points.

Philadelphia Flyers at Stars

Take Flyers to win
Take over 5.5

Detroit at Vancouver
Take Detroit

Car -105 tw1u
Det +110 1u
Col +115 2u
Grand Salami u33.5 tw1u

Parlay
Col +115 and o5 EV.
tw6u

It's possible I'm being a homer with Col but they've been playing very well at home lately.

Good luck

kobstopa keep up the good work

portland went from +2.5 to +4.5 in a few minutes, anyone know why ?

edit: +6 now

Millsap is playing possibly? He was listed as doubtful, but idk what else

Paul Millsap/Al Jefferson are not 100%, or either likely to miss this game

Jazz became a bigger favorite, not the other way around

no reported problem on portland's side, unless they're expect the Jazz will come to play?, but they're alway tough at home anyway.

it got back to +3.5 just before tipoff, i got it at +4.5

I think the line was manipulated by the wiseguy, looked like they're on the Jazz -5.5, good luck to them.