NBA 2016-17 regular season picks, discussion etc. - Page 21 - Sports Betting

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NBA 2016-17 regular season picks, discussion etc.

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05-15-2017 , 04:46 PM

#501

FrankyRizzo

adept

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 971

cant decide if bos pk or was+10 is a better pick & o206.5

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05-15-2017 , 04:51 PM

#502

Jackitos

srs biz

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 17,561

It's all a feeling. I think Boston wins, so if they have no spread, there's my answer.

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05-15-2017 , 07:03 PM

#503

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Quote:

Originally Posted by FrankyRizzo

cant decide if bos pk or was+10 is a better pick & o206.5

BOS PK I think is a lot more likely. Everything's against WAS, home teams historically in game 7s, home teams SU and ATS in this series both reg season and playoffs, and a lil icing on the cake would be the DC curse but don't take that part too seriously.

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05-15-2017 , 07:08 PM

#504

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Another thing we can be looking at is the half time numbers for points. This series apart from game 3 has had pretty noticeable disparities in points per half.

Check out these splits (1st H points, 2nd H points);
*Game 1; 123pts, 111pts
*Game 2; 131 pts, 97pts
Game 3; 103pts, 102pts
Game 4; 96pts, 127pts
*Game 5; 118pts, 106pts
Game 6; 83pts, 100pts

So if it goes way over 1st H numbers, hit the under 2nd H, if it goes way under the 1st H numbers, hit the over on 2nd H. Would of had a pretty decent success rate so far apart from game 3. Also WAS gives up almost 3 pts per game on avg more on the road. (* games are in BOS).

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05-15-2017 , 07:09 PM

#505

fansrajoke

adept

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 1,182

I like wizards +185 considering celtics lost ML last game. Ppl are chasing that ML and celtics -206 seems cheap for them to chase.

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05-15-2017 , 07:29 PM

#506

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Quote:

Originally Posted by fansrajoke

I like wizards +185 considering celtics lost ML last game. Ppl are chasing that ML and celtics -206 seems cheap for them to chase.

David Payne Purdum
@DavidPurdum

Wizards at Celtics (-5, 211.5): 3.7 times more bets on Boston, but the total money bet on the Game 7 spread is even @CGTechnology_.

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05-15-2017 , 08:04 PM

#507

Jackitos

srs biz

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 17,561

I probably have way too much money on this game that is Pro-Celtics. Probably a good idea to bet against me. GG my money.

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05-15-2017 , 09:20 PM

#508

Jackitos

srs biz

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 17,561

That sweat.

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05-15-2017 , 09:23 PM

#509

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Phew had a sweat for that 1st H.

Had WAS +3, ML 1st H and have my +450 bet of WAS win 1st H, BOS win 2nd going.

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05-15-2017 , 09:30 PM

#510

Jackitos

srs biz

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 17,561

I should have bet was 1h, but meh. I still have a lot on celtics winning

Like 20 units between those other bets.

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05-15-2017 , 09:33 PM

#511

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jackitos

I should have bet was 1h, but meh. I still have a lot on celtics winning

Like 20 units between those other bets.

U liked BOS -3 1st H tho? Glad u got off that hopefully.

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05-15-2017 , 09:34 PM

#512

Jackitos

srs biz

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 17,561

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfBets

U liked BOS -3 1st H tho? Glad u got off that hopefully.

Yeah, i didn't bet it. Just the OU for 1h. I posted my bets up there if you curious.

Not gonna bet 2H because I'd just put more on Boston. Lol

I'm super sold that they're gonna cover

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05-15-2017 , 09:54 PM

#513

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jackitos

Yeah, i didn't bet it. Just the OU for 1h. I posted my bets up there if you curious.

Not gonna bet 2H because I'd just put more on Boston. Lol

I'm super sold that they're gonna cover

GL. If it's anything like before, they covered when down at half many times before.

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05-15-2017 , 10:43 PM

#514

Jackitos

srs biz

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 17,561

Woo! I'm such a pansy for not betting 2h. But I'll take the wins.

Perfect tonight

25.2 units tonight.

And I did the dumbest bet ever, I have 20 units for Cavs to win their conference, pays lol 2.5 units.
So bad.

Last edited by Jackitos; 05-15-2017 at 10:50 PM.

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05-15-2017 , 10:50 PM

#515

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jackitos

Woo! I'm such a pansy for not betting 2h. But I'll take the wins.

Perfect tonight

GG ship it.

Perfect tonight too
1st H WAS +3
1st H WAS ML
WAS win 1st/BOS win final +450
BOS -4.5 2nd H

All in the history.

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05-15-2017 , 10:51 PM

#516

Jackitos

srs biz

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 17,561

Nice nice

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05-16-2017 , 12:32 AM

#517

Jackitos

srs biz

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 17,561

Thinking about just dropping 20 units on cavs - 3.5 and letting it ride.

They had a long rest. Celtics are bad and tired. Being on the road, so cares.

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05-16-2017 , 12:35 AM

#518

Jackitos

srs biz

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 17,561

Meh, my limit got moved. Got 12 units my max on it.

Let's goooooo

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05-16-2017 , 01:14 PM

#519

FrankyRizzo

adept

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 971

haha phew loved those sweats. i only had

bos -5 whole game
o211.5
bos -4.5 2h

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05-16-2017 , 01:27 PM

#520

Jackitos

srs biz

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 17,561

Hey, they hit. Can't complain at all!

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05-16-2017 , 03:50 PM

#521

FrankyRizzo

adept

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 971

i agree with u there

although i think cavs will end up winning, i think im gonna throw some on celtics for the series

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05-16-2017 , 04:03 PM

#522

Jackitos

srs biz

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 17,561

Quote:

Originally Posted by FrankyRizzo

i agree with u there

although i think cavs will end up winning, i think im gonna throw some on celtics for the series

Money is good enough, to hedge against some bets, for whatever reason.

I think it's personally burning money, but if Lebron and another key starter get hurt, Boston might win. Outside of that, Boston doesn't have a chance.

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05-16-2017 , 04:07 PM

#523

FrankyRizzo

adept

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 971

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jackitos

ugh i think youre right. maybe ill burn less if bos wins first game then cavs line will be less? or if cavs win first game then odds will be jucier for bos? haha ill pass and wait for now

Quote

05-16-2017 , 04:14 PM

#524

Jackitos

srs biz

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 17,561

Quote:

Originally Posted by FrankyRizzo

ugh i think youre right. maybe ill burn less if bos wins first game then cavs line will be less? or if cavs win first game then odds will be jucier for bos? haha ill pass and wait for now

If Cavs win, Boston line definitely gets juicier.

Boston(imo only) has 10% chance to win tonight. I'm sure realistically it's like 35-40%.

I feel that game 1, the question is "how much will the cavs win by?" Boston has had 2 rough series vs way worse opponents, and even way way worse than the Cavs. I think they are the worst #1 seed in a really long time, and the Cavs will have had a week of rest.

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05-16-2017 , 08:17 PM

#525

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

just me or is it hard to find something good in this GS/SA game tonight?

There's only 1 game between these 2 where Kawhi was out and Spurs won 107-85 but that was without LMA and GS without Curry, Klay, Green, and at SA so pretty irrelevant.

It's gone 110, 108, 111, and 104 pts for the 1st H numbers so far and O/U 1st H number is only at 103 for tonight, maybe that.

Also seems too many points for Spurs even without Kawhi. They're 6-2 ATS on the season when he's out, the number is usually inflated despite what you think, as he's obv huge for SA on both ends of the floor.

With Iguodala out, GS is 3-3 ATS and 1-5 on O/Unders, seems a small sample size though.

Last edited by ProfBets; 05-16-2017 at 08:29 PM.

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