Thoughts on why total in OKC/cle is 211 and 1H total is 109.5?

Every Cavs game man. Cannot win.

Never fails. Every time I think I'm getting something going. Once again, all my bets were looking solid until the fourth quarter. Then favorites just destroy. If an underdog isn't up 20 in the fourth, just write em off I guess.

1-1 -0.11 units

YTD 41-35-3 + 0.88 units


I have two parlays for tonight

Rockets ml
Wizards -3

2 units to win 4.76


And...


Wizards ML
Mavs +5
Raptors ML
Rockets ML

1 unit to win 3.35 units


Sweating raptors, and wizards right now

L3: 5-6, -1.7u
YTD: 133-132, -8.85u

1-1 + 0.35 units

YTD 42-36-3 + 1.23 units

Strange the Knicks/Kings and Blazers/Nets games seemed to have been removed from bet365 and WillHIll :S

these games are likely to be cancelled if the havnt already because of the blizzard hitting the east coast

Thanks

I'm taking all the underdogs, seems to be what works on Mondays.

YTD: 113-105-3 +4.57 units

Denver Nuggets +14 -105
Philadelphia 76ers +15 -109
Boston Celtics +7½ -105

all 1u

If all the lines on my site are the same as pinny, but the juice is different (all mine are -105 both sides and pinny has like -101 and -109 for a game), does always playing the side I have to pay less than I would at pinny make sense as a general/super basic strategy?

Is a certain discrepancy (in terms of cents) needed to be profitable? If so, what is that number?

Obv if there is a sharper line than pinny (and if this strategy even makes sense) I should use that one as the point of reference. Does such a line exist for nba?

Lastly, would it be best to put these plays in right before game time to always "beat the closing line", or is any time fine?

Thanks in advance, sorry if this is all pretty basic/******ed.

What were your results last year?

Thx.

Convert pinny lines to vig-free lines. Then you can compute how much of an edge you have at your local book.

You should bet whenever you have an edge that makes sense given your bankroll, whether that's right before gametime or 2 days out. If you're asking when Pinny lines are 'correct,' that's for you to decide.

Philadelphia +15

Tyvm. That makes perfect sense, using vig-free. I just messed around with some numbers and it seems like the favorite on pinny needs to be > -110 for the same spread to be +ev at -105 (if we are considering pinny vig-free the true line).

Another dumb question- is pinny considered sharpest for nba/all sports?

Also, I've always thought the (pinny) closing line was sharpest (accounting for injuries, trades, whatever). If you don't mind, how could beating their night before vig-free line be as good as beating their closing vig-free line? Or maybe beating the closing line is just lower variance???

^^^ is prob super obvious (like using vig-free seems now), but it's just not clicking for me for some reason. Much appreciated!

Some crazy parlays tonight:

Pelicans -6
Grizz -4.5
OKC -7.5
LAC -5

2 units to win 5.14


LAC -14
Celtics +7.5
Magic + 12
Wolves +15.5
Sixers +15

0.10 units to win 2.53 units


Pelicans -8.5
Magic + 20
LAC -9

0.5 units to win 1.20 units


Wolves +23.5
Sixers +23
LAC -6

1 unit to win 2.03




Im such a fish

GL!

If you think vig-free Pinny lines are always accurate, then there's no way to predict a move one way or another, so any move between then and closing is just variance, and you can still calculate your edge at the time you make the wager. If you have less edge on early lines, you should save your $ for when you have more edge (assuming you don't have trouble getting all the $ down you want). If you have more edge on early lines, you probably want to pound them and eat the variance, so long as your BR can support it.

Jazz -7

+3.2 units over 382 bets .... Didn't document here though. Last year, I messed around with a lot of player props, which was generally a bad idea.

I like to post publicly and email picks to friends as it keeps me off tilt - by no means am I a sharp - I make a ton of mistakes and just do some basic spreadsheet analyses.

20-21-1.45

this game was from a few weeks ago but i forgot aboutr this thread

20-21-1.45
nuggets+14-106 1.89 units

Solid bet.

Phi doesn't have 1 halfway decent offensive player in uniform. Like literally not 1 guy who can create a shot much less get the ball all the way to the rim from the 3 point line. Nick Young would be God on this team.

That was rough to watch. They can't even run a 3 on 1 fast break without botching it. I know the brow was out, but how did that team beat the Pelicans by 15 only 10 days ago?