This seems like an excellent play.

What were odds on ok'd preseason for champ. Should od plunked a bit down as that was preseason pick.

I took OKC to win west pre-season and it was +230. Not sure what they were to win it all, but I think Heat were favs

Can someone help me with this math to see if I'm thinking correctly. I bet Boston +412 to win the series. I am considering hedging my bet. I am looking for the highest EV.

Right now I can get Heat +120 to win series.

Assuming Boston is 58% to win the series, my calculations look like this:

412 * .58 = 238.96
-100 * .42 = -42
238.96 - 42 = 196.96

20 * .42 = 8.4
312 * .58 = 180.96
180.96 + 8.4 = 189.36

196.96 - 189.36 = 7.6

If, Boston is correctly 58% to win the series, I net $7.6 in EV if I don't hedge.

A lot of value in Heat/Celtics over 180 tonight

I'm on the opposite for large, but have been on a bad run, so that's to be expected.

MIA/BOS UNDER 180.5 (-105) 2u

Lebron makin my heart melt

LeBron goes off and Pierce couldn't hit a shot if the hoop was 5 times bigger. Hoping game 7 goes better as I took the Celtics +400 in the Series. Can't imagine the odds of winning 2 games in Miami is very good though.

Would be really really surprised to see Miami drop Game 7. Bosh played very well in G6 and if he keeps that up, C's have a much tougher time putting up points. He protected the rim from Pierce/Rondo drives a few times and also forced Garnett into much tougher shots than he's been having vs Lebron/Haslem. Additionally, there's much more room for Lebron to work on offense when Bosh is on the floor.

Why are people loading up on OKC? Miami splits first two games and price still -105 for both teams to win series. Miami should be favorites going home for 3 games, no?

could be because lots of people just hate the heat and want to see them lose, people expect battier to cool off from deep (which he prob will), expect less perkins going forward, etc.

If OKC makes proper adjustments, they just look like a bit better and deeper team. The Heat simply cannot go to their bench and bring players the quality of Collison and Harden out. It's going to take mighty play from Lebron and Wade actually showing up and trying for Miami to win this, something you obv can't rule out. Haslem has been simply awful so far, would like to see Joel Anthony get a bit of burn, he can't be much worse.

I believe miami will win because they have more experience and they know what to do in late game moments

I'm starting to see this going to Game 7 now tbh

Will be interesting to see how it plays out, hope OKC can crush them in the end

I made a good sized bet on Miami to win the finals at 2:1 about a month ago. Feeling pretty good now, will probably make a small hedge on OKC in 7 to ensure a profit.