Was a great game. Got some good series coming up

this Hibbert guy is a joke, got 4 rebounds in the first Q then got lost, he is the main reason that indy lost this game too...well, whatever...

5.26:

Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 (-105) <-- Like this a lot, 2 units on this.

Boston -5.5

This team outclasses Philly when they take it serious.

Being from Boston I could not agree more. It all depends which team shows up. I do think KG will have a dominating game inside the paint today. Last game he took way to many jumpers and did not get inside enough.

Any particular reason why you like this so much?

Well, besides fading the enormous public backing, you mean? Ha. Long story short, I find that Boston doesn't blow out teams like the 76ers very often.

In 23 regular season and playoff games versus PHI, CHI, MIA, ATL (the top 4 DEF EFF teams with similar PACE stats--and relatively similar OFF EFF stats), Boston has won games by 6 or more points only 7 times (interestingly, most of them versus MIA). Granted, 5 of those were in 14 home games and 2 of those came in this series versus the 76ers, but overall, they're not a blow out type of team.

Don't get me wrong, I think they most likely win this game, but I think it'll come down to the wire.

Adding: PHI/BOS UNDER 170.5 (-105)

My hot streak this postseason continues.

Spurs -5.5

Also rolling with Spurs -200 series price. Feel they could def win this series in 5, as OKC has rly struggled against them. The big thing seems to be that they pull Ibaka and Perkins out of the paint and force them to move their feet in the pick and roll. Ibaka and Perkins have a pretty bad +/- together on the court vs Spurs.

If you really believe that to be true, there is no reason you should make only +5.5 points a big bet. Not enough value in getting only 5.5 points if you think the Celtics will win the game to justify making it a big bet imo. If I'm taking a 5.5 point dog and making it a big bet, I'm thinking that the underdog wins the game straight up a very decent percentage of the time

Well, just because I said they "most likely win" doesn't specify exactly what "decent percentage" I actually think the opposite happens. Like if I thought the 76ers win straight up a third of the time, that's a "decent percentage" IMO, yet I still believe the Celtics win "most likely win". You know what I'm sayin'? I think we're arguing semantics here and I think I'm actually mathematically sound in my bet with my own definitions and estimations.

In the end, I was wrong obviously, but doesn't feel like by much, considering they were only down 3 with 3:45 to go. On to the next game!

Today:

OKC/SAS UNDER 204 (-105)

Adding:

SAS -2 1Q (-115)

Sides: 34-32-1 -0.55u
Totals: 39-22-0 +16.45u

Overall: 73-54-1 +15.90u

prophet and JD, who do you guys like in possible Heat/OKC Heat/SA finals match-up?

I'm thinking lots of public $ gonna be on Spurs because of recency bias and Miami/Lebron hate.

5d has Miami at +100/SA-130

value on miami?