Most books getting their lines out soon. I'll be posting my picks and keeping my record ITT, everyone else feel free to do the same. I'll be betting 1-5 units per bet unless something majorly jumps out at me, in which case I may go up to 10u(but that will be quite rare). I have access to a few local books here in Vegas, but most everything I post will be widely available. I will try to post ASAP so that others can follow before possible line movement, but forgive me if I slack on that. I had a good start with 1 unit plays tonight on Clippers and Bobcats MLs, but for the most part I'll be staying away from preseason(and I won't count those in my record since I didn't post beforehand).


Opening day games
Mia pk(-115), risking 4.6u to win 4u
Imo this line is an LOL overreaction to a massive run-good(specifically 3pt shooting) by Dallas in last year's playoffs. Line has already moved to -3(-108) which is far more reasonable imo, although it wasn't assured that Chandler wouldn't resign when the line first came out which obviously has something to do with it. I was huge on the Heat last year with over $30K bet on them to win the title at anywhere from +300 on down to +200. While I was lucky to be able to hedge and turn a profit, I clearly overestimated their role players and team chemistry. I think that the addition of Battier, a healthy Haslem, and most importantly a bigger Chris Bosh who is wiling to bang inside and rebound will be big and provide s.ome value on them before the market adjusts.

NY pk(EV), risking 3u to win 3u
I think the Knicks can legitimately compete for the #2 seed this year. Boston is getting older and chemistry is becoming an issue(Rondo). Most importantly I think this is a statement game for NY, whereas the Cs are hoping to sleepwalk through the regular season and stay healthy. From what I"ve seen this line opened at NY -1.5(-106), went down to NY pk(+101), and is now back at -1(-110).

Orl +7(+104), risking 1u to win 1.04u
I think these will be two of the top defensive teams this year(Orlando will always be near the top with Dwight, and OKC should be much improved on that end of the court imo), so a low scoring affair would not surprise me. I think 7 is slightly too much, especially getting it at +104.


Season Win Totals
TWolves o15.5(-110), risking 9.9u to win 9u
-Kevin Love just turned 23 years old a few months ago and should be entering his prime.

-Regardless of what you think about Ricky Rubio, they still have Luke Ridnour, so essentially Rubio will be replacing Jonny Flynn's minutes. Personally I think Rubio will do much better than many think after all the negative publicity the past year or two. Even still, its tough to imagine him not being an upgrade over Flynn, who may have been the worst player in the NBA to get regular minutes the past two seasons.

-Derrick Williams is the betting favorite to win ROY, so I expect him to contribute immediately. Him taking some of Beasley's minutes will make them a lot better.

-They are still weak at SG, but Ellington is entering his 3rd year and Wesley Johnson is entering his 2nd year. They both have talent, especially Johnson who was the #4 overall pick in 2010. It wouldn't be crazy to suggest that one of them could turn into a reasonable quality starting player this season.

-Brad Miller is 35 years old and only played 17 mpg last season, but I think that he is > Darko, so that could be an upgrade as well.

One thing that got lost in the massive 2p2 KLove debate was just how historically awful Love's supporting cast was last year. Going from historically awful to reasonable doesn't garner nearly the attention as going from reasonable to good(or better), so I don't think people are taking note enough of how much Minnesota has improved. Although the mid-tier of the West is stacked, I wouldn't be surprised if they were in playoff contention late into the year. I love this line so much. As I said for the most part I will cap my bets at 5u, but I couldn't help myself here.


Miami o48.5(-115), risking 4.6u to win 4u
Big on Heat last year, still on them this year. Superstars win in basketball and they have the best player, a top 5 player, and a top 25 player. I jumped on this line as soon as it came out, and I was hopeful they'd sign a solid big man by now...a bit disappointed that Curry has been their only addition there but I"m still confident. Lots to prove this year.

OKC o44.5(-115), risking 3.45u to win 3u
Shortened season with a lot of back-to-backs should favor deep and young teams like the Thunder. Similar to last year's Bulls I think they feel as if they have a lot to prove in the regular season. Durant and Westbrook rightfully get most of the credit, but improvements from Harden and Ibaka could be what pushes this team from "young team with potential" to "championship calibre."

Portland u41.5(-120), risking 3.6u to win 3u
Bad luck and injuries have killed this team's potential. The West is as tough as ever, and I don't see them improving from last year. Andre Miller quietly had a very good year, and I think Felton is a downgrade. I wouldn't be shocked if LMA's 2010-11 turns out to be a career year. More than anything, this bet reflects how good and how improved the West is rather than anything specific about the Blazers.

Charlotte u28.5(-120), risking 1.2u to win 1u
They ran 5 games above pyth expectation last year. Kemba is gonna chuck a ton, but unless he develops better 3pt range then he could struggle with efficiency as teams key in on him. I like the improvements teams like Indy and Philly have made, and I think the Bucks will return to their form of 2 years ago. As a result, I see the Bobcats falling in the standings.

Sacramento u17.5(-110), risking 1.1u to win 1u
A ton of chuckers and nobody who plays defense. I think Cousins could show huge improvement, which is the only reason I'm keeping this at 1u. This is yet another bet based upon the strength of the West.

Philly o30.5(-120), risking 3.6u to win 3u
They actually ran 4 games under pyth expectation to finish .500 last year, and I see no reason for them to drop off this year. Jrue Holiday should be a top 5 favorite for Most Improved Player. Tough minded defensive team that really excels in transition.


Rookie of the Year
Kyrie Irving(+500), risking 3u to win 15u
Often times this award will come down to opportunity. More specifically I look for players on bad teams without a ton of other big time prospects. I think Derrick Williams, the current favorite, won't get as much opportunity on an improved TWolves team with Love, Wesley Johnson, Rubio, and Beasley all there(Beasley sucks but he takes his share of shots and happens to play the same SF/PF tweener position as DWill). Theres a lot of defensive-minded bigs in this class, and they rarely get noticed in ROY voting. Kemba and Jimmer simply aren't as good of players as Irving, who imo is NBA ready and can potentially have a CP3-esque rookie year. I think a fair line is around +300, so I'm jumping on this one at +500.

Liking the picks, especially the Sacramento under. That team is a disgrace to basketball. GL this season Assani

Gfeat stuff AF.

Subscribed.

I'll prob be contributing (my square, obv) thoughts along the way.

I love the TWolves over bet that seems like the freest monies ever

alright buddy , I hate nba so much , following your season bets will probably save me money and get me my fix! lets get em and gl

Very first pick is a line that doesn't even remotely exist anymore. Way to start this thread out with a bang Assani

Just so people are inthe know...these are picks from a guy who tried to start a pyschic business on here

gm, I made 11 picks. If you want I can re-order them, lol. I guess I could've started this thread a few weeks ago when I first got money down on Miami, but I wanted to have more picks to post in the OP.

GL all, hopefully we all crush.

JD, I'm trying to follow your formatting with this thread....I've been busy with holidays so haven't been able to keep up with your thread as much lately, but I followed you last night and had yet another good night.


Poogs, I don't try to hide any of that....I'm a long time 2p2 poster who has done his share of trolling, I am a psychic, I write for the basketball site pointsperpossession, and most importantly I'm going to crush NBA betting this year. Feel free to mention any and all pertinent info- Like I said, don't want to hide anything. With that said, I would hope that the content I post ITT is how I'm judged and not based upon anything else(such as my psychic ability).

lol you should read his MMA stuff

his p4p MMA writeups in EDF made me stop reading it for about a week until it went away. (probably a good thing)

gtfo with the hate that has nothing at all to do with NBA betting. I have 37K+ posts and I'm willing to put my opinion out there and debate it strongly....regardless of whether or not I'm always correct, that has value. Moreover I listen to other opinions and am not hesitant to admit when I'm wrong. Its easy to rarely go out on a limb yourself and then judge those who do.

Putting out a top 30 MMA P4P list, starting a psychic service in which you publicly display all results and feedback, publicly posting your bets and record, sticking with a H&F log and having great results, starting up your own basketball analytical site, putting out a raw and honest poker psychology post that many called the best post in the history of 2p2....this all leads to some swings and misses, but the value is not in always being right- its in the discussion that results.

lol haters. Assani knows his nba ****, lets crush

On BM Kevin Love is -110 to avg most rebounds/game. Assani, I know you are a big Kevin Love fanboy. Do you think these are good odds?

Please refer to the FAQ:

ty stumble! glglgl!

jdock, I don't like it. I'd just barely take him at -110 to finish ahead of Dwight Howard. He lost a lot of weight this offseason, which may negatively affect his rebounding.


Chipp, I hadn't seen that. Like I said, I was following the same exact format JDWarriors has used, and most everyone has enjoyed his thread(and I haven't seen anyone complain when he posts picks on stale lines). Regardless I'm more interested in tracking my bets for my own benefit, so I"m not going to track bets on lines that I didn't bet on. To remedy this, I'll just have to post my picks as soon as I make them from now on. It won't be an issue, as I'll be dilligent about this.

I thought it was pretty obvious these were picks he has made over the last couple weeks. You guys are too nitty.

As far as rebounding/game avg, Dwight is +105 and noone else is even close. What about Dwight?

yeah DWillII is another variable. jdock, theres not a ton of value in those types of lines due to an absurd amount of juice. I only bet on Irving as ROY because I thought the market was way off, but usually I avoid any such type bets. Out of curiosity, would you post the entire list?