MMA Thread

[just_mo]

I don't see Sonnen being able to hold Munoz down. Can't hold down a wrestler that good, and he has shown great ability to use sitouts and other techniques to get up when taken down. I just see Sonnen keeping up the pressure and landing more strikes and takedowns to outpoint Munoz.

On Diaz/Condit I think the line is fair, may be some underdog value on Condit. I don't care how good your chin is, anyone can be finished by strikes if a fighter has good enough power/technique and Condit definitely does. I don't see either fighter getting a finish here though. I think this is pretty much a flip...

[birdshake]

Really?

I don't see Condit going 5 rounds standing up with nick as I expect him to get outpaced/cardio'd. So if this is going to decession there has to be some LnP involved which I don't think is too likely either.

Dunno I might be a bit "high" on the Diaz succes lately, and underestimating Condit, really feel this will be a onesided fight - anyone else wanna chime in?

@just_mo Btw, it makes no sense that you think it's pretty much a coinflip while thinking the line is fair.

[just_mo]

Originally Posted by birdshake

Really?

I don't see Condit going 5 rounds standing up with nick as I expect him to get outpaced/cardio'd. So if this is going to decession there has to be some LnP involved which I don't think is too likely either.

Dunno I might be a bit "high" on the Diaz succes lately, and underestimating Condit, really feel this will be a onesided fight - anyone else wanna chime in?

@just_mo Btw, it makes no sense that you think it's pretty much a coinflip while thinking the line is fair.

Last I saw Diaz was a slight fave like -130. Also, I said there may be a bit of value on Condit as a dog. But yeah the line is pretty accurate I'd say. And Condit's cardio is solid from what we've seen. Dude got beat on in bottom pos for 2.5 rounds which is VERY tiring and still had the energy to come back for a finish against Rory McDonald.

[PiercE]

I love the Diaz brothers but in no way should Condit be taken lightly. This guy has shown improvement every fight, he is a monster. I made some nice $ on diaz vs bjpenn and nick looked very good but i think condit would have destroyed penn aswell. I am considering a play on condit but its very close. I highly advise against doing a super degen bet on this one. However, I would be more than willing to throw 20k on vitor vs wandy at -250.


Been staying up allnight watching lauzon/miller/guillard fights.

Ill def be looking to throw a prtty penny on lauzon vs pettis.

as for melvin/ jim, soooo close but i think i like melvin with the odds but dont be suprised if dis nig gets subbed.

also farm on ellenburger/ and i rly like kampmann vs alves at even odds...

[Swiiftx]

Condit has very good conditioning himself, like I don't expect conditioning to be the decising factor in this fight like it was Diaz vs BJ penn, where the first round was evenly contested and arguably went to BJ Penn.
The question is who does the most damage first. Both of them have awesome striking, Condit the more versatile and kickboxing stance whilst Diaz has better boxing and probably throws more strikes per min than Condit, but doesn't include kicks or knee's in his standup game. I was really impressed with Diaz standup vs Paul Daley, considering Daley was in the top food chain in the striking department at welterweight division when he was in ufc. Could one say Condits standup is on the same level as Daley? I don't think it's much better if better at all at least.

What I do know is that this is easily going to be fight of the night, like it's 99% guaranteed, both guys have decent chins, both are mainly standup guys and willing to bang, and even if it goes on the ground, both of them have a very offensive game on top and below so there's not going to be any lay and pray. Only way it would not be fotn is if one of them scored a quick KO/TKO or miracle sub.

[birdshake]

bah, seems like you guys have talked me down from the ledge

No point in arguing when you pretty much all aggree, I must be overestimating Nick/underestimating Condit.

I don't really like Vitor as much as u guys tbh. I mean -250 is pretty low return, and we didn't really see much of his form vs. rumble, he was gasping for breath after that one round for like 10min - and after seeing vintage Wandy knee Cung Le, I think he can still KO anyone.

I really like Ellenberger tho - also at -250.

[Swiiftx]

Originally Posted by birdshake

bah, seems like you guys have talked me down from the ledge

No point in arguing when you pretty much all aggree, I must be overestimating Nick/underestimating Condit.

I don't really like Vitor as much as u guys tbh. I mean -250 is pretty low return, and we didn't really see much of his form vs. rumble, he was gasping for breath after that one round for like 10min - and after seeing vintage Wandy knee Cung Le, I think he can still KO anyone.

I really like Ellenberger tho - also at -250.

The fight is just too risky, that's all, in the BJ Penn fight we all knew Penn's cardio was a big issue and would let him down, but in this fight, Diaz won't have that big of a advantage.

Yes, like I said, Wands biggest chance is to stay alive for the first round and try to outpoint Vitor in 2nd and third, or possibly 4th and 5th if it's a main event. The thing is, when wand does his rush, he opens himself up so much(Their last fight, his fight with Leben etc). He's gotten better though and is why he paced himself against Cung Lee and I can definitiely see a way for him to outpoint belfort or possibly late round TKO him when Vitors condition starts getting worse. However, the fact still remains, he's getting tagged in the first round and when you get tagged by Vitor, you're not making it out alive.

[SwoopAE]

so many potentially amazing bets coming up over the next few cards. 143 144 and FX1 all have some fight i expect there to be value in

Barry over Morecraft if he's a dog or very slight favourite (yes I know he always finds a way to lose and I had $ on Crocop and Struve when he was favoured in both fights, but he's got this, and Morecraft is heading to the unemployment line)

Evans over Davis (got 2 units on Evans so far likely more by fight day)
Chael over Munoz (not the best odds wise but 2.5 units on Chael - I might stay away in hindsight but he should beastmode it so whatever)

Dunham over Lentz if he's -300 or better which I expect him to be (prob -210ish if I had to guess?)

Charles Oliveira if he isn't -300 or better

Potentially Bisping but i'm starting to lean towards a no bet on this one

Ed Herman over Starks unless he's -300 or worse

Matt Brown over Chris Cope unless he's -300 or worse (and maybe -350 even)

Dustin Poirer is a lock at anything under -450 or so

Barao at anything -150 or better against Jorgensen (I expect it to be -120ish and he could be a dog potentially even but I doubt it)

Kos over Pierce at up to -300ish maybe even -350

Potentially Werdum over Nelson if the odds don't get out of control

Justin Edwards if the price is right

Miocic over De Fries (and I had De Fries over Broughton)

Struve over Herman if he's a +125 or better which i think he will be

Then in Japan for 144, Frankie (got 1 unit already), Sot over Gomi especially if he isn't -150 or worse, Bart over Hioki if he's a reasonable dog which he will be, Kongo over Hunt depending on odds, Lee over Yamamoto if he's a significant enough dog which he prob will be even though he's supposed to be cannon fodder for Yamamoto, Okami over Boetsch if he isn't -300 or worse, then probably Noke over Hamman at the FX 2 card.

Going to be an interesting couple months, I have a feeling a lot of units are going into play. I'm loving how much MMA is on these days even compared to a year ago it's amazing as a fan and as a sports bettor.

Anyone care to speculate on the lines of any of the fights I listed that aren't out yet? I've got estimates of where I think they open in my head and expect value, anyone care to handicap some upcoming cards at likely opening prices? Particularly interested in where you all think Barry/Morecraft opens as that's one of the fights i'm most interested in this weekend strangely enough.

[just_mo]

@Pierce Why would you bet on Lauzon over Pettis? Pettis will win that fight without much trouble. Lauzon basically just subs fighters with grappling deficiencies and loses to everyone else. Basically zero chance he outstrikes Pettis and he isn't going to just take him down and grapple with him.

@Swoop Koscheck is a terrible bet against Pierce at -300. Pierce has a great chance to beat Kos outright. Pierce has better technical striking so if he can keep it on the feet (and his wrestling is very good) then he should beat Koscheck.

I don't see a way Wand can beat Belfort without takedowns (and we last saw those against Bisping). Where does he have an edge besides maybe cardio, which is questionable because Belfort just keeps finishing people/getting finished in round 1? Most likely cardio won't even come into play with Belfort's power + Wand's now-weak chin.

Also, Ellenberger all day vs Sanchez. Once again, I see no real edge for Sanchez in this fight. Ellenberger is a better striker with power and a better wrestler.

[Swiiftx]

I don't either see a reason why you would bet on Lauzon over Pettis. Pretty much mo said about koscheck as well. Also, I'm picking Herman over Struve easily, he's getting TKO'ed/KO'd.

[just_mo]

Per Dana White's twitter, Munoz is out injured. Now Sonnen vs Bisping for next title shot. Cmoooon Sonnen -200....

[Swiiftx]

Lol, I hope Bisping wins so I can bet my livelihood on AS.

[birdshake]

Very interrested in the line on this - After seeing Chael dispose of Brian Stann I don't see Bisping having much of a chance here. The line will prolly reflect it tho..

[kingofcool]

chael should be a lot more than -200. 250-300 imo. and there's still value on -300

pillowfist bisping have close to no shot at winning this. he needs for sonnen to gas or knock him out. hes going to get taken down repeatedly and his subs from bottom is no good.

[PiercE]

sick