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Old 01-29-2012, 09:41 PM   #361
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Re: MMA Thread

Four fights into his major promotional debut, Anderson Silva was getting triangled by Daiju Takase, who has a career record of 10-13. Four fights into his major promotional debut, BJ Penn was getting humbled by Jens Pulver. Four fights into HIS major promotional debut, Chris Weidman is 4-0 with 2 finishes and just beat a top 10 fighter.

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Old 01-29-2012, 09:47 PM   #362
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Re: MMA Thread

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I expected as much, two fighter who don't deserve to be anywhere near the top 10, couldn't grapple or stand. Neither fighter has the heart or the talent to be much more than undercard material for worse events than this.

Only thing surprising was Maia not performing a little better considering Weidman's short notice, dramatic weight cut, and overall low skill level. Both fighters looked like deadbeat bums though, was wishing I could get in there and finish them off in the 3rd round when they were staggering around like worn down wusses.
Lol watch Maia vs Sonnen there Tool, put a strictly stand up fighter against those 2 (top 5-7 MW's) and watch them go to work
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Old 01-29-2012, 11:45 PM   #363
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Re: MMA Thread

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Lol watch Maia vs Sonnen there Tool, put a strictly stand up fighter against those 2 (top 5-7 MW's) and watch them go to work
LOL someone get mad? I wasn't trying to own your emotions, but I am sure you know how to tap out. So you are now saying a world class wrestler with reasonable stand up skills can defeat a one dimensional fighter who excels at stand up fighting. Sorry but not much of a revelation there.


I doubt anyone here was impressed in any way by the Maia-Weidman fight. Not sure how Weidman will develop as a fighter, but he will have to improve immensely to even crack the top 5. While him improving is not out of the realm of possibility, I saw nothing encouraging from that horrible excuse for a fight last night. The fans rightfully boo'ed.

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Old 01-30-2012, 12:22 AM   #364
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Re: MMA Thread

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sure i had all 3 rounds for chael why would I disagree with that?

Maybe some people count holding someone against the cage the same as getting a takedown but I really dont.

And sonnen had most of the significant strikes in every round, plus takedowns. The cage punches from bisping had the power of a guy on his back pillowing away when they cant get up, I disregard almost all of them.

i have no trouble accepting a draw or a nod to bisping on round 2, but calling this fight a robbery just rubs me the wrong way.
I am the biggest Sonnen hater on this forum and I scored the fight 30-27 in his favor. He did just enough with the takedowns to win each round. Bisping had every chance to attack and win the first two rounds but he just never went for it. Tough to win a round on your back and backpedaling.
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Old 01-30-2012, 03:05 AM   #365
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Re: MMA Thread

this thread has gone haywire.

It's kind of funny how some of you say Bisping won or that he arguably won two rounds, then turn around saying 30-27 is inexcusable because there is "no way Sonnen won the second round!"

well. If we disregard personal bias, fightmetric had the first round wider for Chael than the second for bisping. 77-62 vs. 62-75. If you can find a way to give Bisping the first surely you can find a way to give Sonnen the second. Is fightmetric perfect? No. There needs to be context. But it's a whole lot better than biased maniacs angry because they lost money. (not to mention WE SEE CONSTANTLY how fightmetric value takedowns less than actual judges do. So we should probably alter that to amount for more = even more clear win for Sonnen)

Disagree with most of the criticism against Weidman. He did fine grappling with the best grappler in the division. It was very clear he was somewhat drained or out of shape. I think he had to cut 30lbs in 11 days. I had hoped for more out of him but you have to give him some leeway for his lack of preparation. In the end Maia is/was a borderline top5 mw, with Weidman being an untested prospect.

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Old 01-30-2012, 07:26 AM   #366
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Re: MMA Thread

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this thread has gone haywire.

It's kind of funny how some of you say Bisping won or that he arguably won two rounds, then turn around saying 30-27 is inexcusable because there is "no way Sonnen won the second round!"

well. If we disregard personal bias, fightmetric had the first round wider for Chael than the second for bisping. 77-62 vs. 62-75. If you can find a way to give Bisping the first surely you can find a way to give Sonnen the second. Is fightmetric perfect? No. There needs to be context. But it's a whole lot better than biased maniacs angry because they lost money. (not to mention WE SEE CONSTANTLY how fightmetric value takedowns less than actual judges do. So we should probably alter that to amount for more = even more clear win for Sonnen)

Disagree with most of the criticism against Weidman. He did fine grappling with the best grappler in the division. It was very clear he was somewhat drained or out of shape. I think he had to cut 30lbs in 11 days. I had hoped for more out of him but you have to give him some leeway for his lack of preparation. In the end Maia is/was a borderline top5 mw, with Weidman being an untested prospect.
You win, sir.
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Old 01-30-2012, 08:39 AM   #367
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Re: MMA Thread

We'll see in Weidman's next fight then. I'll be betting against both Weidman and Maia probably if they draw any combination of Bisping/Belfort/Munoz in their next fights respectively. I'd like to see Weidman/Munoz and Bisping/Maia next, both fights make sense imo.

So anyway, on to 143

I like Werdum the most (-120 at the moment, he was -105 for a while but I didn't have $ on the site, feel he closes -170 to -200). If Werdum stays under -130 when the pinnacle line opens i'll probably get 3-5 units or so on him depending on the odds.

I felt like the line opened with value on Diaz at evens but now as condit drifts out towards +200 I might get on Condit for a small amount if he gets to the +200 region

Also probably going to parlay Kos/Herman/Barao, pretty confident in all three of them, although very little value betting individually. I'm hoping I can get Barao at better than -200, a lot of people seem to be saying Jorgensen by decision so I hope the line moves in that direction so I can get on Barao.

Poirier is obviously a bet if his odds are remotely reasonable, and Brown against Cope. Rest of the undercard i'm probably staying away from. Thinking I might end up doing a 3-fight round-robin style parlay covering each combo with most of the favourites (Herman Barao Werdum Kos Poirier Brown) since I like most of the favourites this card, 4/6 will probably be slightly under breakeven to breakeven and I feel like we get 5/6 or 6/6 more than 3/6 by quite a bit. Depends on odds I guess.

Does anyone see a likely path to victory for Roy Nelson other than a random TKO if he catches Werdum? It really seems like it should be Werdum -220 or something, I feel like i'm missing something here.

Also anyone care to speculate on how big favourites Matt Brown and Dustin Poirier will be?
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Old 01-30-2012, 08:58 AM   #368
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Re: MMA Thread

I have no interest in Maia vs Bisping when it comes to being an mma-fan. Probably won't be much value in the line either. It was a sucky fight from the get go.

It sucks that Vitor is tied up to fight Wand. Him vs Bisping would've been cool.
Maybe Bisping vs. Munoz and set the winner up to fight Vitor(unless wand upsets him) for the next shot.

Weidman vs. Palhares sounds good too. Not quite ready for a titleshot in 2012 anyway for either guy. Or Weidman vs. Belcher.

Middleweight has some good guys, but the division is a mess right now. What to do with Okami when he beats boetsch? Maia? Stann if he beats sakara?
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Old 01-30-2012, 02:30 PM   #369
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Re: MMA Thread

"Weidman vs. Palhares sounds good too. Not quite ready for a titleshot in 2012 anyway for either guy."

Definitely agree with this. If they put Weidman in against Bisping or any of the top 5 MW's it would be money printing time, like the Dunham fight this weekend.
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Old 01-30-2012, 06:29 PM   #370
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Re: MMA Thread

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We'll see in Weidman's next fight then. I'll be betting against both Weidman and Maia probably if they draw any combination of Bisping/Belfort/Munoz in their next fights respectively. I'd like to see Weidman/Munoz and Bisping/Maia next, both fights make sense imo.

So anyway, on to 143

I like Werdum the most (-120 at the moment, he was -105 for a while but I didn't have $ on the site, feel he closes -170 to -200). If Werdum stays under -130 when the pinnacle line opens i'll probably get 3-5 units or so on him depending on the odds.

I felt like the line opened with value on Diaz at evens but now as condit drifts out towards +200 I might get on Condit for a small amount if he gets to the +200 region

Also probably going to parlay Kos/Herman/Barao, pretty confident in all three of them, although very little value betting individually. I'm hoping I can get Barao at better than -200, a lot of people seem to be saying Jorgensen by decision so I hope the line moves in that direction so I can get on Barao.

Poirier is obviously a bet if his odds are remotely reasonable, and Brown against Cope. Rest of the undercard i'm probably staying away from. Thinking I might end up doing a 3-fight round-robin style parlay covering each combo with most of the favourites (Herman Barao Werdum Kos Poirier Brown) since I like most of the favourites this card, 4/6 will probably be slightly under breakeven to breakeven and I feel like we get 5/6 or 6/6 more than 3/6 by quite a bit. Depends on odds I guess.

Does anyone see a likely path to victory for Roy Nelson other than a random TKO if he catches Werdum? It really seems like it should be Werdum -220 or something, I feel like i'm missing something here.

Also anyone care to speculate on how big favourites Matt Brown and Dustin Poirier will be?
I feel the line is right in that Nelson fight, I see it as a tossup. If Werdum gets takedowns he will win for sure but I don't really see that happening. Nelson has real heavyweight power so a TKO wouldn't exactly be "random" lol...

I also think Jorgenson has a decent shot to decision Barao but I'm not sure I can really bet on it. The guy gets results there's no denying that but he hasn't always been impressive doing it (dropped round to Banuelos, struggled some with Pickett etc).

The line I'm most looking forward to is Mike Pierce. I think his fight with Koscheck is a closely matched one and I feel he's definitely got an edge against Koscheck on the feet. Should be some really good underdog value there.
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Old 01-30-2012, 11:39 PM   #371
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Re: MMA Thread

I disagree and think Kos is going to walk through him, Piece's two UFC losses are to Fitch and Hendricks, and Kos is basically an equal/better version of both of those guys. Then again I thought Fitch would do the same to Hendricks. Kos's striking is better than Fitch's though and his wrestling is definitely better than Pierce's.

Just put amounts to win 1 unit (eg 1.4 units to win 1 at -140 for werdum etc) on each of Werdum, Barao, Kos and Herman


On the Barao fight, the line isn't as good as I thought but basically I think Barao steamrolls any BW not named Dominick Cruz, and Barao vs Cruz could easily be fight of the year if it happens.

Werdum's been backed in a bit, shame Pinnacle released their lines late or I would have hit him harder, bit less value now so a unit and change will do. I do feel like he'll get backed in even further though as I said when line came out at -105. He should close at -170ish imo. Two units and change on each of the other three. I'm still undecided on the main event. I hate betting big favourites, but I really doubt I get less than 3/4 of Werdum Barao Kos and Herman, which is enough to show a profit. I might go watch some Clifford Starks fights and if he doesn't impress me i'll get more on Herman maybe since I think he's pretty underrated and a huge step up in competition for starks.

Overall i'm risking about 8 units to win 4, not the odds I usually like to bet at but I feel like I get 3/4 a huge percentage of the time, and probably 4 just as often as 2.

For the main i'm thinking a partial unit play on Condit if he gets to +180 or better, leave it alone at current lines, or a small play on Diaz if he gets to -120 or better.
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Old 01-31-2012, 12:28 AM   #372
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Re: MMA Thread

I got werdum -120 and feel it's the best bet in months, other than maybe rashad -170 last weekend. (or maybe bisping +400, even if it didnt exactly pan out, sick value imo)

i'm liking diaz up to -225 or so, i feel like people are really buying into the condit hype here - the WW division needed a contender to hype vs gsp, and there was no one but condit, and so they started the machine in motion and here we are...i think diaz has many more paths to victory and his edges both standing and on the ground will become clearer and clearer as the rounds progress.

I also don't really mind Koscheck -240, i'm definitely not a josh koscheck fan, or an aka fan in general, but imo kos has similar wrestling to pierce, but has it along with a much more well rounded mma toolset, and far more experience. I wouldn't say that kos is going to "walk thru him", and hope he's taking his camp very seriously, but if they're both 100% i see this being a near lock for josh.
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Old 01-31-2012, 12:31 AM   #373
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Re: MMA Thread

Also, am i the only one here who thinks that something funny was going on with maia? has anyone else seen him gas like that before? Like, perhaps he was too sick to be going 3 rounds, or suffered an unusually bad weight cut? I mean, i've never really thought of him as out of shape or a guy with no gas tank, and going into it i felt like +140 was a pretty decent price.

Even after watching the fight, i feel like if he had more energy (which i certainly expected him to), i think he could have won that fight more often than not, and don't really regret taking him as a dog.
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Old 01-31-2012, 12:37 AM   #374
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Re: MMA Thread

someone said in edf that he had the flu, not sure if he had sources
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Old 01-31-2012, 02:20 AM   #375
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Re: MMA Thread

4-2 ytd+1 unit
werdum-128
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