Swick hits reasonably hard, Johnson's standup is mediocre at best, and he is unimpressive athletically. Swick should be a lot bigger too. On paper, this is Swick all day but how can you account for how someone is going to look after 2 years...
Phan's out at +110. I think im staying away for now. On paper Miller should win this fight but I cant shake a gut feeling Phan's going to pull off an upset when my head's telling me Miller is better
De Fries -220 Thompson +170 is bleh it's bad vs worse and HWs so anything can happen so it could be worth an underdog play but Thompsons record is just awful and De Fries while hes bad can get takedowns and smother til he gasses
Gamburyan -150 Omigawa +120 seems accurateish
Yahya into +150 now, if I can get him at close to that when Pinn line opens i may make a small play. Lauzon came into -115 so I added another unit on him.
Don't like Machida decision as much as I did before, now that Dana said that whoever wins most impressively gets the LHW shot. Still not sure why it isnt Gustaffson (and i'm a huge Machida fan but he should need 2 top 10 wins not 1 to get another shot the way Sonnen had to at MW).
If Vera wins and Machida wins by decision I could see no one from this card get the shot, Machida by insane crane kick/wheel kick/whatever or Shogun by TKO will lead to rematches though.
Thinking about a Machida/Swick parlay, that seems like it could be the way to go if I can get around evens on it, plus Lauzon straight up and maybe a small play on Yahya and/or Gamburyan
Rua inside distance is tempting at -160 or so, since if he wins I doubt it'll be by decision over 5 rounds even though Vera's chin is decent, Shogun will finish him if he drops him.
Ya I like Miller a lot but he has burned me a bunch, he just seems to get himself into brawls and fight the way his opponent wants to pretty often.
Gomez dropping to -195 sounds pretty solid to me, I was considering him at -250 so obv this is much more attractive.
If Omigawa keeps climbing I will probably throw a bet in on him, he's up to +140. Would like to see him at +170 or so.
@Swoop Shogun inside distance -160 sounds pretty good to me too. Vera isn't the easiest to finish as you said, but I've been noticing these 5 rounders have seemed to tend more towards finishes.
I just rewatched Shogun Hendo and I have to say, Shogun has an unhuman chin. If those power shots from Hendo can't finish him, then I can't see Vera TKO/KO'ing him. Best he can hope for is to take him to deep waters and somehow squick out a decision.
Ticket Accepted Date Risk To Win Status Wager
130163522-1 8/2/12 2:34pm $145.53 $107.80 Pending 8/4/12 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Cole Miller -135* vs Nam Phan
130154234-1 8/2/12 12:15pm $250.00 $185.19 Pending 8/4/12 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Cole Miller -135* vs Nam Phan
128327131-1 7/17/12 12:17pm $154.00 $96.25 Pending 8/11/12 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ben Henderson -160* vs Frankie Edgar
255273855-1
1 8:42am 17-Jul-12 5:45pm 4-Aug-12 Mixed Martial Arts
Money Line Ryan Bader vs Lyoto Machida for Match. -314 200.00 63.69 PendingUFC
255273855-2
2 8:42am 17-Jul-12 9:15pm 11-Aug-12 Mixed Martial Arts
Money Line Frankie Edgar vs Ben Henderson for Match. -156 277.00 177.56 PendingUFC
477.00
Wish I could get off my Machida bet and put it on Gamburyan. Also wish I had a lot more to throw at Henderson, though the line is getting worse :/
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