MMA Thread - Page 2 - Sports Betting

kingofcool · 01-09-2012, 10:25 AM

I'm not sure if i feel Bisping has solid tdd, or mediocre tdd.
You obviously feel it's the latter just_mo, could you convince me as to why? Maybe point me to some fights i can rewatch?

I feel Maias wrestling and clinch has improved. He already had some good judotrips/throws.
If he can get Bisping down frequently i think he can win this for sure.

As of right now I'm leaning towards Bisping being able to keep this standing, but I'm far from sure on that.

just_mo · 01-09-2012, 05:21 PM

Mayhem was able to get him down relatively easily in the first round. Kang had him down a couple times too IIRC. These aren't exactly dynamic wrestlers. Maia may not be Chael Sonnen, but he did toss Chael Sonnen around and has shown an ability to outgrapple mid-tier grapplers before (Santiago, Miranda, Grove, etc.)

SwoopAE · 01-10-2012, 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

I made a very coherent argument for Maia in one of the other threads. He's a far better grappler than Bisping. He has a strong positional top game. Bisping has mediocre takedown defense. He defends himself well on the ground but I think there's a decent chance Maia can do what he's done in his last few fights and positionally grapple his way to a decision.

I don't agree with betting Massenzio. Palhares is going to annihilate him almost certainly. He showed tons of power in his strikes against Miller plus he's got that vicious leglock game. Massenzio does not have the greatest chin + he doesn't have the type of punching power that severely punishes diving for leglock attempts.

Yeah I haven't actually bet Massenzio yet I just feel he's very live considering the +405ish line. So far I only have a unit and change on Vitor, and I might keep it that way for 142, and potentially even add another unit since he's down to -117 now. If I do bet Massenzio it'll only be a 1/5th to 1/10th of a unit play. Will decide after the weighins I guess.

SwoopAE · 01-10-2012, 01:34 AM

Just placed a couple more bets for 142

Now have

3.5 units on Vitor Belfort at average of about -125
0.2 units on Terry Etim at +235
0.1 units on Mike Massenzio at +405
0.1 units on Erick Silva at -470 (lolsizing)

Might add a bit more on parlays or Etim but otherwise i'm probably done with betting the card. The only significant bet is Belfort, I really don't think it's the best betting card so just put a few units on the one guy I actually like (Etim is probably the second best bet i'd say, and Silva is the only lock of the big favourites so lol 10 bucks for the sweat)

nashman1313 · 01-10-2012, 09:21 PM

Liking rumble aswell. Vitor looking old and slow lately, he used to man handle dudes back in the day now he will be the one getting steamrolled. Aslong as rumble fights smart and takes it to the ground if/when it starts to go bad on the feet.

SwoopAE · 01-11-2012, 03:59 AM

Vitor's down to -105 now

Guess I need to put another couple units on to get my average price a bit better since I still liked him even at -130 etc

Was going to bet Bisping too but holding off for now i'll wait and see where the line settles and decide.

Added 3.5 units on Vitor for 7 total now at -113ish average (sigh that I didnt wait to get it all on now)

Biggest bet of the year so far. Don't let me down Vitor... first 30 seconds are going to set the pace for the fight. Punches in bunches gogogo

Also added half a unit on Etim at +235 and another unit on Rashad.

supaf1y · 01-11-2012, 06:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

Vitor's down to -105 now

Guess I need to put another couple units on to get my average price a bit better since I still liked him even at -130 etc

Was going to bet Bisping too but holding off for now i'll wait and see where the line settles and decide.

Added 3.5 units on Vitor for 7 total now at -113ish average (sigh that I didnt wait to get it all on now)

Biggest bet of the year so far. Don't let me down Vitor... first 30 seconds are going to set the pace for the fight. Punches in bunches gogogo

Also added half a unit on Etim at +235 and another unit on Rashad.

etims good but barboza has crisper striking, think im staying away from that matchup, no money to be made from -265 and etim losses 80% of the time.

Also vitor is gonna smash rumble, rumbles 1st fight at middleweight, lets not forget, this guy was never really a title contender at welterweight, he had trouble with welterweights and Vitor is at the upper echelon of fighters in the middleweight division, sure rumble has ko power but speed is key and at -115 vitor is the best bet of the night.

SwoopAE · 01-12-2012, 12:29 AM

-104 now, and I thought he was value at -140. At -104 the value is insane, hence 7 of the 8 units I have on this card are on Vitor. Either going to make a bunch or lose a bunch, we'll find out soon enough I guess. Vitor/Rumble is the true main event here for me since i'm not an Aldo fan. it always surprises me that Aldo has more fans than Cruz and Edgar when every Cruz and Edgar fight is amazing at the lighter weight classes, people don't like fighters who win exciting decisions I guess? To be fair I haven't seen some of Aldo's WEC fights though.

I think Etim wins about 1 in 3 times or so, very slight value at +235. Barboza should be favourite, but not by quite that much. Remember, he had a close fight with Njokuani who it turns out isn't as good as we thought and he arguably lost the Pearson fight.

I feel like the most likely outcome is a close 29-28 UD or SD and while that favours Barboza since he has the home crowd, I have to go for the underdog if I think it's going to be a close decision most of the time.

Over/under on percent of the time that Palhares does something immensely stupid mid-fight? He's at 3 from 8 so far in his UFC career...

just_mo · 01-12-2012, 05:26 PM

Njokuani is a VERY good if you do what Barboza did against him though and engage him almost solely on the feet.

The reason Aldo is arguably more popular than Edgar and Cruz is pretty obvious...he's more of a finisher, has a more exciting fighting style. I personally think Cruz is pretty exciting but many disagree it seems. But I'm not sure why you think that he's more popular? They are all fairly anonymous with the casual fan base for sure.

Swiiftx · 01-12-2012, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by supaf1y

etims good but barboza has crisper striking, think im staying away from that matchup, no money to be made from -265 and etim losses 80% of the time.

Also vitor is gonna smash rumble, rumbles 1st fight at middleweight, lets not forget, this guy was never really a title contender at welterweight, he had trouble with welterweights and Vitor is at the upper echelon of fighters in the middleweight division, sure rumble has ko power but speed is key and at -115 vitor is the best bet of the night.

Agree with this one, even though I think Barboza wins a majority of the time, this is a dnb.

On Johnson having trouble with welterweights, I cannot say anything about his past fights, but in his 4-5 last fights, he's looked pretty good, even in the koscheck fight, he looked really good.

Swiiftx · 01-12-2012, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

-104 now, and I thought he was value at -140. At -104 the value is insane, hence 7 of the 8 units I have on this card are on Vitor. Either going to make a bunch or lose a bunch, we'll find out soon enough I guess. Vitor/Rumble is the true main event here for me since i'm not an Aldo fan. it always surprises me that Aldo has more fans than Cruz and Edgar when every Cruz and Edgar fight is amazing at the lighter weight classes, people don't like fighters who win exciting decisions I guess? To be fair I haven't seen some of Aldo's WEC fights though.

I think Etim wins about 1 in 3 times or so, very slight value at +235. Barboza should be favourite, but not by quite that much. Remember, he had a close fight with Njokuani who it turns out isn't as good as we thought and he arguably lost the Pearson fight.

I feel like the most likely outcome is a close 29-28 UD or SD and while that favours Barboza since he has the home crowd, I have to go for the underdog if I think it's going to be a close decision most of the time.

Over/under on percent of the time that Palhares does something immensely stupid mid-fight? He's at 3 from 8 so far in his UFC career...

I've changed my mind about palhares mike, rumours going around mike has a problem with his knee and we all know what that means(palhares specialty, sub by knees,anklelocks etc)... Beside, Palhares is a huge ***** dude for his weight class and he's already fought mike type of fighter, the mid wrestling dudes and so far dealt with them good.

Njon has very good standup and that's what you should draw from his bout with Barboza when Barboza defeated him, that barboza has top notch striking since it was a striking match. Njon match against Castillo you can really only comment on his grappling/being pressured against the wall game.
Also if you gona comment on Barboza's performances, take a look at Terry Etim's, he hasn't exactly faced anyone decent(all of his wins are against ppl who are no longer in ufc), with the only exception being Sam Stout pretty much. Whilst Barboza has faced 2 very good fighters.

Also people like Aldo bc he's an existing fighter as well + he finishes fights in spectaculiar fashion. I'm not taking anything away from Edgar or Cruz though, just saying, especially Cruz, I think he has a really cool style even if he rarely finishes fights. There's a free fight on ufc, Aldo vs Jonathan Brockins, who won the TUF recently and he got absolutely destroyed by Aldo.

supaf1y · 01-13-2012, 02:11 AM

anyone know why vitor was the favourite and now rumble is the favoruite? do people know something about vitor that we dont? i bet pretty big on vitor at -135 and -115, now its -105 vitor, -125 rumble

beermankirk · 01-13-2012, 03:35 AM

What props you guys liking for UFC 142?

just_mo · 01-13-2012, 06:08 AM

Dude who knows a ****load about MMA and actually sells his picks for a major site said on Twitter he favors Johnson over Vitor...always worries me when people this knowledgeable see it diff from me. But I'm just not seeing why Belfort shouldn't be favored here.

Swiiftx · 01-13-2012, 06:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

Dude who knows a ****load about MMA and actually sells his picks for a major site said on Twitter he favors Johnson over Vitor...always worries me when people this knowledgeable see it diff from me. But I'm just not seeing why Belfort shouldn't be favored here.

Meh, I got 2 predictors I watch on youtube both favor Vitor. Pretty much their thoughtprocess is Vitor is too fast for Johnson and is going to KO/TKO him in first, even though they see there's possibility of Johnson outworking Vitor.

I think this fight is a dnb atm and I'm not surprised the lines shifted towards 2:2.