MMA Thread

[just_mo]

Yes Maia has shown solid cardio in the past, many fights that went the distance...

[just_mo]

Griffin Ortiz is only -155 to go the distance...any thoughts on this line? First instinct was to jump all over it.

[SwoopAE]

Ortiz has shown he's weak to body shots and he did put Bader out whose chin is probably as good as Forrest's at this stage of their careers.

If I had to pick it'll go to decision, but i'm not super excited about that line.

[SwoopAE]

Also... here I was worried about not being able to bet Struve in his next fight as I expected him to open at around evens.

Miocic is a boss but...

Struve is +205.

Time to bet Struve. Again. I think Miocic is maybe 50-55% to win this one, but YET AGAIN the value is on Struve. 3-0 +15u or so betting on Struve so far in thread. Keep it coming! For some reason even though it feels like Miocic should be maybe -120, I feel like Struve is going to win. Just a gut feeling that he's getting better, and is going to make a run towards the top ten over the next few years. In fact, if he beats Miocic, i'd say it's fair to call him a top 15 HW, maybe 12th-13th even.

I expect Struve will pull guard, honestly. Miocic hasn't been tested on the ground yet. It's yet another +EV Struve bet. Not to mention he's working on his striking inbetween fights, and filling out his frame towards a full 265

[just_mo]

Miocic is the more skillful all around fighter but I don't think he deserves to be -260 here, that seems a bit absurd. He has similar defensive issues to Struve on the feet.

[mlane]

Wow thats a pretty strange open for the struve/miocic fight. Mo hit on the head, the guy is solid in abunch of areas but def no worldbeater/finisher. Def think the lines should be closer.

[SwoopAE]

Few more opening lines

Mckenzie +350 vs Mendes -500

Menjivar -110 vs Easton -120

I like Menjivar here.

and a big wtf here

Le +200 vs Cote -260

Expected it to open around evens. I liked Cote initially but at this price I don't mind Le tbh. He did win the first round against Wandy before he got caught. In a striker vs striker battle, I think +200 is an okay price for Le (even though I was planning to get on Cote originally)

Also getting tempted to get on Marquardt at -111 vs Woodley who has never faced anyone well rounded and top 10 caliber. Feel like the late casual fan money will come in on 'the ufc guy they've heard of'. Is Marquardt's TDD good enough to keep it standing for 1.5 rounds or so? If so it feels like a good bet.

Also don't mind Rothwell 2.0 (if he's in the same shape he fought Schaub in) at +225 vs Travis Browne. The big boys hit hard, Browne lost to Kongo if it weren't for a point deduction and his biggest win is Struve (one punch ko etc). Both of them have power to end it in one punch and at HW, +225 seems like an okay price for two upper-mid level guys. Sure, Browne's striking is technically better, but Rothwell has a chin that let him beat Schaub whose striking is also technically better than his.

If fat rothwell shows up he's going to get clobbered, but if he's in shape I feel like he's 40% or so which is great at +225

I quite like Munoz at +123 too. He's looked great lately, Weidman hasn't impressed me that much compared to his hype train, and they looked to be of about similar quality overall against a common opponent in Maia, only Maia fought better against Munoz than he did against Weidman. Munoz really wants that title shot too, and he's more experienced than Weidman without being past his prime.

[DannyOcean_]

Munoz getting outstruck by Maia is a giant warning sign for me. Maia's improved and all, but does that give you confidence in Munoz, given that he won't have a big wrestling edge like he normally does?

[SwoopAE]

Weidman's striking isn't super impressive either, and Munoz had a bad night vs Maia and still won - he outstruck Chris Leben since then as well although granted a lot of that was due to wrestling edge. I've actually bet against Munoz in his last two wins and he's proven me wrong twice and made me a believer.

He's far from a lock but I have him as a very small fav imo and he's +123, so that seems like decent value.

[AlanDyer]

aren't Chael's comments like super xenophobic/homophobic? like.. i could imagine people being fired over them if they weren't big stars..

for example:

"Even if I thought I could get a submission I'm not laying underneath a grown man with my legs spread on worldwide T.V. I am a Republican and we don't do that"

"if you lay on your back with your legs wrapped around a man's head for eight seconds, that does not make you a winner. That makes... not a winner.""

[SwoopAE]

Chael's a troll, his 'character' is 'the trash talker who doesnt give a ****' he's trying to mimic Stone Cold from the 'attitude era' and all that but it sells PPVs which makes him rich, so he does it.

Who cares really, he's going to get his teeth knocked out by Anderson in a few days anyway and if he doesn't then he gets to simultaneously be the biggest heel/antihero the UFC has ever had and his fans will buy the PPVs and people who hate him will buy his PPVs to cheer for the challenger

TLDR: Chael is a douchebag but he's also a smart businessman

Volkmann didn't get fired making threats against Obama and Velasquez has a Brown Pride tattoo, the UFC is more lenient than other sports on being politically correct I think. Sure they 'fired' Torres but they hired him back straight away and Evans and Griffin have got away with making questionable comments.

Basically, the sport is men beating the crap out of each other in a cage, its fanbase (even those who appreciate all aspects of the sport as opposed to the 'just bleed' fans) don't really care what the fighters say as long as they entertain us in the octagon.

I think Chael is good for MMA to be honest, even though he's a 'bad guy' and I want to see him lose. Same for Koscheck, Bisping etc.

If Chael had sponsorship deals with Gatorade and all that stuff GSP has as one of the 'faces' of the company it would be different, but he's supposed to be the bad guy/anti hero, it fits the demographic he's trying to appeal to so he has the right to say whatever he wants if he thinks it'll help him build his fanbase so long as it's not against the law.

[AlanDyer]

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

If Chael had sponsorship deals with Gatorade and all that stuff GSP has as one of the 'faces' of the company it would be different, but he's supposed to be the bad guy/anti hero, it fits the demographic he's trying to appeal to so he has the right to say whatever he wants if he thinks it'll help him build his fanbase so long as it's not against the law.

Yea I think this is a good point. He's not as accountable to mainstream companies as a lot of other sponsored pro-athletes. Apparently rape "jokes" are the big taboo, although Torres did get re-hired after apologizing.

edit: also thanks for giving me a reasonable response, instead of saying i'm "too PC" or whatever

[just_mo]

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

Chael's a troll

This is really all you needed to say.

Weidman > Munoz IMO. More disciplined on the feet, improving much more. Munoz was gettin his **** rocked by Maia in the standup. Think late money will be on Munoz so I will wait to bet this.

Marq should beat Woodley. I mean IDK how many of you watched Woodley's last fight and I'm sorry if you did...but I did. And he was DREADFUL. One of the judges literally scored for Jordan Mein doing little hammerfists and stuff off his back because Woodley provided basically no offense from top position. He just seems like one of those guys who despite all his athletic/wrestling gifts just doesn't "get" MMA the way someone like a Dan Cormier has done (seamlessly blending his wrestling with his newly learned abilities, etc).

The Cote line is disappointing but it's dropping so maybe we can hope for a big move here...

Disappointing that Mendes is -650 on 5d I was hoping for a line closer to -450. Probably will still throw him in some parlays and maybe look for some decision props as Mendes really seems to be unable to finish guys he is dominating. Should be absolutely no way he loses this, he is better everywhere by a lot.

Think I like Menjivar too but I haven't seen enough of Easton to know for sure.

Fukuda +155 on 5d, will be betting him at this price. Only question is whether to wait...

[traz]

Somebody drop some knowledge on Khabib Nurmagomedov. All I know is wiki has him listed at 17-0. I feel like Tibau at -185 is a good bet against anybody I haven't heard of.

[Machinehead]

Apparently a Russian Sambo dude.