i think i'm passing on this fight as well. i don't really see the branch hype tbh, he hasn't shown anything in his ufc return and if you look at his record nothing really pops off as impressive. he's not a really good wrestler tbh, and most of his attempts to get people to the ground come from work around the cage. i think santos is too strong and too athletic to get grounded from that position. eric spicely had success against santos but he was in full on desperation-mode to get the fight to the ground, even pulling guard at the start of the fight. (his jits game is really good too) i don't think we'll see the kind of desperation for a ground fight from branch. he'll be more comfortable in engaging in the striking, to his own detriment.

if i had to bet anyone I'd bet on santos, but I'm not totally convinced branch can't win a totally boring jotko-esque fight where he just walls santos off and does nothing for 3 rounds. however i don't really feel comfortable betting on santos when the only person to have a grappling-centric approach vs him got a 1st rd sub without too much resistance. pass.

Think there's some value in Jim Miller at +295. He's not an elite wrestler / grappler, but he's good at both, and Dan Hooker has a good body type for a wrestler to fight against (tall and lanky). Also like Jim Miller's mindset, he's scrappy and tough. Obviously he deserves to be an underdog, but +295 is too much imo.

man i always bet against jim miller, but could there possibly be value on him at +300 vs dan hooker? i don't think dan hooker should be -340 vs anyone, really.

edit: slow pony

I tend to agree that Miller's price may be too high even though he's washed up. Granted I thought Lauzon would beat Gruetzmacher, so I may be overvaluing the gatekeepers of five years ago currently against weaker fighters.

Spicely gameplanned well against Santos but obviously Santos would be a favourite in a rematch. If he gets down below -150 I might bite but otherwise just leaving it alone unless there's a particularly good prop on fight day or whatever

I sort of want to back Kevin Lee but want to see weigh ins to make sure he looks good/no undisclosed staph etc. In a pure Striker vs Grappler match I expect Lee's grappling is good enough to ground him often enough at some point and once Barboza is down he's not getting back up against a guy of Lee's caliber and while Barboza has the better striking technique Lee isn't dead on the feet as he's reasonable there plus Barboza can be chinny and 5 rounds is a long time. Granted that could work both ways if Lee exhausts himself getting takedowns and doesn't get the sub, but I think Lee should be more like -150 here

Pre-Ortega fight i'd have taken Edgar in a heartbeat against Cub but i'm just reluctant to lay that juice in case Edgar is done, because I remain a thorough nonbeliever in Ortega and while Edgar won the entire fight until the finishing combo, he got finished on the feet by Brian Ortega, and Cub has better striking than Brian does and reasonable power. Yeah, Edgar's technique and speed is better everywhere as is his grappling, but idk - I might play Edgar by sub or dec + Swanson wins by r1 KO or KO if they work out to a reasonable effective price, but probably not

Kind of liked Sterling as a dog, but probably going to leave it now - his star has fallen a lot in recent times but he's only been finished once and six of his last seven fights are against better guys than Johns has ever faced.

I tend to agree Miller is too high and should probably be more like +200, he's old and past his prime but he was an elite fighter not too long ago and while Hooker has some nice finishes if Miller can ground him for a couple rounds he could win via dec or sub.

There just doesn't seem to be much standing out this card. Was disappointed with the Santos opening price; Lee price seems good but not amazing and nothing else seems to be a must bet.

TJ only -124 vs Cody is a long way off but is tempting. Yeah the first fight kind of looked like a pickem but I trust TJ's chin slightly more (neither have the best chin in the world but I think TJ's is better) and if anyone has a mental edge it's TJ after winning the first fight in brutal fashion and surviving a big shot from Cody.

i hate this card tbh, only leaning toward nakamura, though im not sure i pull at this price, and i think edgar is a really good bet.

I think Edgar wins pretty easily, the Ortega KO is already priced into the line. If that hadn't happened he'd be at least -300.

We've already seen them fight. After a competitive Round 1, Frankie took Swanson down and beat the **** out of him on the ground. Swanson tried playing guard but it didn't work and he couldn't get up.

What exactly is Swanson going to change in this fight? It's not like it was a lucky outcome - Frankie has a skillset that Swanson just doesn't have an answer for (absent a lucky KO or submission, which, at best, has maybe a 20-25% chance of happening, hence my thinking that -300 is the true price for the line here.)

I didn't bet it hard because by my (conservative) assumptions I'm only getting an ~8% ROI and I think there are better spots, but I think there is value on Frankie here.

Also, I don't necessarily agree that Jim Miller is washed up. Granted he's basically a grappling based brawler and brawlers don't age well, but his last 3 fights have all been very competitive and look who he's been fighting against: Dustin Poirier (world class and probably the #1 contender), Anthony Pettis (not as good as Poirier but still top 10 and has a very slick and underrated grappling game), and Francisco Trinaldo in Brazil. Trinaldo isn't as good as those other two but he's a terrible matchup for Jim Miller based on his build and skill set and that was a close fight as I recall.

So, we'll see. Rumors of Jim Miller's demise may be somewhat exaggerated.

But then again, I also thought Lauzon would beat Gruetzmacher

Been tempted by Smith and with this news I took a small bet at +140. Expect it to be canceled most of the time, but hey...

if anything i'd be more willing to take ladd with this news. shes gonna need to get the fight to the ground to win and coming in heavy would help vs smith who seems pretty physically strong.

i'm on nakamura, miller, and frankie tomorrow. might toss in some other small ones as well.

i think i might pound o/1.5 for branch/santos

I'm thinking Cummins by decision and Anderson via ko r1 might be good pics.
Amazingly no last minute injuries this card.

Please post last minute pics so I can tail.

All over the place tonight and took some sweats on mainly props.
Anderson r1 ko and cummins r3 as in a grinding war he won't be the one looking for a way out.

Miller via sub and r3
Edgar or Swanson via tko/ko
Branch itd
Barboza via sub
Barboza straight up
Alex garcia via ko
Lafleur via sub

Can't even remember the rest... hence why I need pics.

UFN 128 Risk $3472.15

Kevin Lee (-133) vs Edson Barboza $332.50 for $250.00
Kevin Lee wins by submission (+165) $50.00 for $82.50
Kevin Lee/Edson Barboza Under 2½ (+105) $100.00 for $105.00
Kevin Lee/Edson Barboza won’t go 5 round distance (-180) $135.00 for $75.00
Kevin Lee/Edson Barboza won’t go 5 round distance (-185) $185.00 for $100.00

Frankie Edgar (-230) vs Cub Swanson $230.00 for $100.00
Frankie Edgar -3½ points (+175) $75.00 for $131.25
Frankie Edgar wins by 3 round decision (-167) $125.25 for $75.00

Justin Willis wins in round 1 (+225) $25.00 for $56.25
Justin Willis wins by TKO/KO +(114) $75.00 for $85.50
Justin Willis wins inside distance (-140) $105.00 for $75.00
Justin Willis/Chase Sherman ends in first 60 seconds of round 1 (+1000) ~$17.50 for ~$175.00
Justin Willis/Chase Sherman Under 1½ (+152) $75.00 for $114.00

David Branch (+190) vs Thiago Santos $100.00 for $190.00
David Branch (+180) vs Thiago Santos $100.00 for $180.00
David Branch wins by submission (+650) $30.00 for $195.00

Aljamain Sterling (+110) vs Brett Johns $100.00 for $110.00
Aljamain Sterling (+100) vs Brett Johns $100.00 for $100.00
Aljamain Sterling wins by submission (+750) $30.00 for $225.00
Aljamain Sterling wins by split decision (+374) ~$17.50 for ~$65.45

Jim Miller (+280) vs Daniel Hooker $100.00 for $280.00
Jim Miller wins by submission (+1325) $30.00 for $397.50

Alex Garcia (+135) vs Ryan LaFlare $100.00 for $135.00
Alex Garcia wins in round 1 (+675) $25.00 for $168.75
Ryan LaFlare wins in round 3 (+1700) $10.00 for $170.00

Ricky Simon/Merab Dvalishvili goes 3 round distance (-235) $70.50 for $30.00
Ricky Simon wins by 3 round decision (+171) $40.00 for $68.40

Siyar Bahadurzada (+110) vs Luan Chagas $100.00 for $110.00
Siyar Bahadurzada (-105) vs Luan Chagas $210.00 for $200.00
Siyar Bahadurzada wins by TKO/KO (+260) $30.00 for $78.00
Siyar Bahadurzada wins in round 3 (+1150) $15.00 for $172.50

Corey Anderson (+104) vs Patrick Cummins $200.00 for $208.00
Corey Anderson/Patrick Cummins Under 2½ (+210) $50.00 for $105.00
Patrick Cummins wins by TKO/KO (+770) $25.00 for $192.50
Corey Anderson/Patrick Cummins fight ends in KO/TKO/DQ (+274) ~$17.50 for ~$47.95
Corey Anderson wins by 3 round decision (+210) $50.00 for $105.00

Keita Nakamura (+200) vs Tony Martin $50.00 for $100.00
Keita Nakamura wins by submission (+495) $20.00 for $99.00
Tony Martin wins by submission (+1240) $30.00 for $372.00
Keita Nakamura/Tony Martin fight ends in submission (+350) ~$17.50 for ~$61.25
Keita Nakamura/Tony Martin Under 2½ (+295) $75.00 for $221.25

Fights to end in KO/TKO over 2½ (-166) $66.40 for $40.00
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 3½ (+181) $40.00 for $72.40
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+535) $25.00 for $133.75
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+1674) $10.00 for $167.40
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 6½ (+7000) $3.00 for $210.00
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 7½ (+46200) $2.00 for $924.00

Kevin Lee/Edson Barboza awarded FOTN Bonus (+230) ~$17.50 for ~$40.25
Justin Willis wins POTN Bonus (+304) ~$17.50 for ~$53.20
Siyar Bahadurzada wins POTN Bonus (+600) ~$17.50 for ~$105.00

Any mobile links to the fights?

Dominant win for Lee

Call out Khabib 1 time. He doesn't have anything else to do.

Fun card- lots of underdogs came through including Corey Anderson, Siyar Bahadurzada, Aljamain Sterling and David Branch. Frankie Edgar and Kevin Lee topped things off in the co-main and main events, while that doctor stoppage in round 5 in the headliner came in clutch for my KO/TKO event props. More than 13.5 units profit overall for the card including a 1 unit live bet on Siyar after round 1 at +240.

^ Sick stuff.

Hit on Branch and Lee. Followed Jim on the o/u again, but that missed this time, and followed a lot of people on miller which also missed. Since my follows are smaller generally that made Branch my biggest bet, so still a good day for me.

good card for me, missed on all my underdogs but won all my big bets. was rly big on frankie. cub fought in a way that would help ensure he didn't get taken down but also would not really have a chance to win the fight. weird all around.

What are your guys thoughts on the Ricky Simone win?

Tbh I found it scary to watch and I think the regulators should have a new rule that gives a fighter 15 seconds to start defending the choke or it's stopped.

Was his legs just twitching? Was he somewhat ok?
No way to really tell in the moment and this rule airs on the side of caution.

i Think he was out from the slam, then kept coming back in and out of consciousness during the choke. Have no problem with Simon winning, he was clearly unconscious at the bell and Simon didn’t hold the choke longer.

The ruling cost me money since I bet the fight goes distance prop, which 5D graded as a loss when they announced it as a TKO at 5:00 of round 3, even though the clock ran out completely. I don't have a problem really with them ruling a fight as a finish if the fighter is out when the bell rings, but my main question is why they called it a TKO and not a technical submission.

I managed to hit Dern at -185 for the standard to win $100 opening limit before it shot back up. Mutante at +125 vs Roberson has some value imho, considering he fought much better opponents. Also like Jacare who I hit yesterday at -130 to win 2u and Jacare/Gastelum Over 1½ at -155, even though it is a bit risky.

I'm on Jack Hermansson -125 to win 2u vs Thales Leites, who looked poor against Brad Tavares most recently. I think Hermansson finally gets a win in Brazil. Also really like Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos to win 2u at -115 vs Sean Strickland. I'm also watching the Oliynik line closely, especially if he goes underdog vs Albini.

Alexey Oleinik +105. Nice.... Now +110! Take more of my money. Oleinik has a lot of experience over Junior Albini , a good chin, and an ungodly submission game. Junior isn't *that* good or diverse of a striker to be the favorite over The Boa Constrictor.

Nice card Jim on the last one. I didn't end up making any bets on it, probably should have taken Lee but oh well after he missed weight I decided not to.

I lean Oleinik too, he keeps slipping under the radar because he's old but at HW that matters less.

Going to wait until a bit closer to the fight, nothing that feels must bet right now. Going to watch the lines on Ramos, Dos Santos, Alves, Hermansson and as much as I don't like him for some reason John Lineker. Machida dec is kind of tempting at +190 too although straight up might be better, he's pretty washed up but still hard to hit and Belfort is way way further past his prime, I assume Machida cruises to a 30-27 if he can survive the opening 90 second blitz which he has a better chance than most of doing due to having good defensive technique even if his reflexes and chin aren't what they were in his prime. Machida fought safe in his last fight and I expect he will again - it's possible he gets caught or KTFOs Belfort with a big counter, but I think +190 isnt too bad on him to win a dec, will see if +2xx becomes available at some point as more books release lines

Have been more impressed with Ramos than Hein in the UFC so far even though Hein's record is better Ramos has fought the better guys (other than Vick who destroyed Hein). Plus in the event of a close dec the fights in Brazil so i'd rather be on the Brazilian in fights I think are close to a pickem due to the risk of homecrowd judging which still happens on something like two thirds of the cards in Brazil with at least one or two judges scoring all the close fights for the local.