I like Stephens as well, have 2 units on him at +160 (I bet the line when it opened).

Also like Krause vs Alex White. Alex White comes to fight, has fast hands, and tons of heart, but I think Krause is just a lot better than he is. Took him at -150.

Haven't had time to scout out any of the other fighters on this card, any other spots you guys think are worth investigating?

I actually think that Cub Swanson was kind of a good matchup for Choi and made him look better than he actually is (ironic since Choi lost, but keep in mind Choi did explicitly call out Swanson, so obviously he was thinking the same thing.)

I don't want to discount Choi - he's very good and has fast, accurate, snappy punches with little windup, but Jeremy Stephens is a monster, and I'm very happy to take him as an underdog here. Stephens is really clicking on all cylinders (as he showed in his last fight against Gilbert Melendez, which was the best he's ever looked). He'll never be champion since he'll never beat Holloway, but I can see him stepping into the role that Cub Swanson previously had, where he's an elite #3 guy who can't beat the top 2.

Also am being a little bit of a contrarian and have 2 units on Ngannou / Stipe going over 1.5 rounds at +125.

I expect Stipe to fight smart and be very conservative and Ngannou to be patient and pace himself (since this is a 5 round fight). Obviously, one punch from either of these guys could end it at any time, and I haven't exactly had the best results betting props, but I couldn't help myself on this one. I've been losing my ass betting props though, so there could very well be some EV in fading me

For what its worth (as we've seen not a lot lol) I capped Choi at -134. With people leaning Stephens (for value anyway) I'm tempted to jump on that too.

I still like any dog odds on Paige.

I like Choi as a fighter and a prospect but think the value is likely with Stephens although not betting it myself.

Don't really like this event from a betting standpoint. If it was at 155 would snap up Michael Johnson but if its a tough cut to 145 Elkins is probably one of the worst guys you could match up with.

Quite like Thiago Alves as a decent dog. But he is so inconsistent its tough to know what your going to get. But the Alves that beat Patrick Cote shouldn't be nearly 2-1 dog to Cummings. Probably going to bet this just so I have something to sweat.

Bet of the card is Paige as a dog. By a LOT.

I expected her to be like -180 here.

I maxed it on Pinny the second I saw +105 then caught +110 on a local book which im going to continue maxing until they move the line (theyve let me hit it twice for 500 a pop so far)

Clark is an Australian journeyman, her best win is a split decision over Bec Rawlings whose head Paige kicked off, Paige beat Felice Herrig (granted Felice has improved since) but Paige was able to bully her. Yeah, Paige is likely to be smaller but she'll have unlimited cardio and can add muscle mass even given she's fighting at 125 now. Clark's only advantage here is size. Paige is younger and very strong for her size, has solid submission defense in that it took Rose 5 rounds to submit her, granted Waterson did it faster but both are elite grapplers and top 5 in the division (or top 5 ish in Watersons case). PVZ's only other loss is Tecia Torres when she was green, and Torres is also arguably top 5 in the division. Yeah, Chambers isnt that good, Curran is mistake prone and Rawlings isnt the best fighter either, but I think it was the Herrig fight that showed the potential Paige has.

As long as she's taking her camp seriously Paige should be a favourite here. She makes mistakes at times and isn't a lock or anything but i'll be on her for a max bet at anything above evens (in process of getting it on now)

I sort of want Elkins as a dog as he's won me so much money but I think MJ is a bad matchup for him (decent wrestling base although not Khabib level but he'll be strong and hard for Elkins to take down and MJ has better striking even if Elkins has the better chin) so i'm staying away from it. Would have hit Elkins at +200 or MJ at evens.

Going to look into Thiago Alves as a dog, I can't remember how his TDD has been lately and need to watch some Cummins tape.

Strongly considering Usman even though he's a ridiculous favourite I just don't see him losing to meek. Will probably pass because -5xx though.

Guido Cannetti might be value as a dog, I sort of rate Kang but not that much. I think Viana was slightly underrated in the UFC for his record even though he was clearly not a top guy. Will have to rewatch his fights as I don't remember them

I like Choi but given everyone likes Stephens i'll hold off for now. I put a tiny bet on at -160 which was clearly a mistake, will wait and might fade the steam if I can get -120 or something closer to the fight. Stephens is nowhere near as technical as Cub and we saw Choi has a chin so I think he may decision Stephens via better standup the way Moicano outstruck him. That said if Stephens comes to wrestle, Choi's TDD is very questionable but that doesn't seem like Stephens style even if he's outmatched on the feet.

Worth noting that slapping on another 10 pounds of muscle (almost 9% of her total bodyweight) and fighting at that new weight may have a large adverse affect on your cardio.

His TDD has always been terrific. The only person to take him down with real success was GSP. Cummins isn't an elite wrestler anyway.

Alves should have a speed and technique advantage standing. Volume is a question mark.

Yeah, that puzzles me. Stephens isn't a bad fighter at all, but a lot of him is myth. His huge power has shown up against three guys. Marcus Davis, Rony Jason, and Dennis Bermudez. Only one of those was a punch. That was Davis who's chin was gone at that point.

Looking great against Melendez, he did that. Same Melendez lost five of his six in the UFC and in that one win he was fortunate to survive Diego Sanchez.

Stephens outpointing Choi seems very unlikely. Choi's volume, technique and accuracy appear superior. That leaves the haymaker, something I think Stephens has landed once on a striker in his eleven years in the UFC.

So, what am I missing?

Picked up the early Max @ -271. Feels wrong to take those odds against Edgar, but they are both at a stage in their career where my model tends to make good predictions and I'm capping Max @ -395 here. Unlikely I'm missing by 5% or more, although I do wonder if that line won't close a bit. Anyone being -300 or better against Edgar just seems wrong.

She won't be adding 10 pounds though, she was borderline passing out to made 115 and depleting herself, she'll probably be adding more like 2-5 lbs in muscle and not killing herself with a weight cut, she was very strong for 115 physically so should still be close to average strength at 125 adding a small amount of muscle. If her cardio was that good killing herself cutting weight it should be better at 125, it's not like 125 makes them huge women, both women are 5'4 that's pretty much average height for caucasian women and 125 lbs is 56kg, factoring in weight cutting they're probably more like 60kg that doesn't exactly mean they're carrying around a ton of excess weight - I think it's more than when Paige was super young she managed to make 115 since 125 didnt exist and she was too small for 135 and as she's getting older (although still young) it makes sense to fight at her natural weight class which is 125.

I'm talking myself into an Alves bet too based on what Willikn said, it pretty much confirms what I was thinking although I still haven't watched the tape. I actually added a little more on PVZ at +102 to bring my average back to +105ish but have one of my biggest bets in a while on PVZ at +105ish average with prices varying from +102 to +110. I think she's a bigger than -150 fav and def want to be on for the max my BR allows. I agree that she's still green and moving up in weight may take away some of her ability to bully other fighters but Clark is a huge step down in competition from anyone she's lost to and Paige is the younger fighter and should be improving more rapidly of the two between fights. Also Paige's biggest weakness is probably submission defense, Clark has two submissions against nobodies and is only a blue belt in BJJ. Big step down in grappling from Namajunas/Waterson, the two women who have submitted Paige.

If I have to pick an exact outcome I think Paige wins a lopsided decision

On PVZ +105 and Alves +168 average now (ended up moving the Pin line with my Alves bet, got some +171 at a local but all the +175 from yesterday was gone)

Going to get on Choi too but the steams been on Stephens so far so i'll wait until whenever the steam ends/starts to reverse to take Choi.

Pretty happy with those 3 spots and I may take Hall TKO/ITD if I find a decent line anywhere but might just leave it at current price

You’re thinking in terms of lazy narratives instead of watching tape, IMHO. I don’t agree that Choi’s overall MMA game is better than Stephens, I don’t think he has better cardio or is mentally tougher, and I don’t think you need to knock someone out in a fight in order for a power advangage to give a fighter a material edge. I also strongly disagree that Stephens outpointing Choi is highly unlikely, I think there’s a very good chance Stephens wins by decision.

I think Choi has excellent punching technique and is accurate, but that doesn’t mean that he’s better overall on his feet than Stephens is, especially with the nasty leg kicks Stephens showed in his last fight. Stephens is just a really good, well rounded fighter and even though he may not win, the value was definitely on him when he opened at plus 160 imo.

I'm not sure what tape watching has to do with a lot of this. I can certainly be wrong, but it isn't because I haven't watched every available fight for both guys (albeit many of Stephens fights, years ago).

I'd question what "tape" could teach someone about Choi's cardio. The Swanson fight was no ordinary fight. I do know I've no evidence of Stephens using his cardio to beat someone, especially at 145.

Stephens "outpointing" folks is wildly uncommon. Renan Barao, yes. Not Bermudez. Moicano, no. Edgar, no. Oliveira, no. Swanson and Holloway, of course no. He just isn't a volume striker. He doesn't have much of a TD game.

I might caution that you are basing everything on Stephens last outing. He definitely carved Melendez up with leg kicks. So does everyone who faces Melendez. Landing leg kicks on Melendez... that is pretty normal stuff.


I'd probably challenge this one. Jeremy has no take down game at all. His combination striking is rather ordinary. His speed and accuracy are adequate, but fall far short against elite guys in that area (Holloway & Cub). Jeremy's special characteristics are power at all eight points, brute strength, granite chin, and now size for the division.

Probably majoring in too many minors. I believe that in this fight everything about Stephens is a known quantity. What he is is what he has been for the last five years, only now at 145. Choi is the partial unknown. What we do know has often times been very spectacular.

Last thought. Stephens looked tremendous beating on the carcass that is Melendez (who doesn't?). Choi coming off of a brutal loss. Oddsmakers, the contrarian line. I know that siding with Choi is siding with the book.

Not flaming man. The idea is to get on the right side. Learn the things you might have missed. Always useful to know what the other side thinks even if you don't agree, right?

I'm sure ppl have seen this by now but: https://twitter.com/missjessyjess/st...77958942208001

Not sure if -- and if so how -- this affects a fighters performance, but worth noting I suppose. Sucks for her and **** those ppl obviously.

LFA 30 Risk $960.00

Curtis Millender (-185) vs Nick Barnes $370.00 for $200.00
Maikel Perez (-190) vs Charlie Alaniz $190.00 for $100.00
Maycon Mendonca (+140) vs Christian Aguilera $100.00 for $140.00
Maycon Mendonca (+140) vs Christian Aguilera $100.00 for $140.00

Parlay:
Jordan Wright (-380) vs Craig Wilkerson + Fernando Padilla (-305) vs Talison Soares Costa $200.00 for $135.46

Wow that sucks for her a lot and **** those people, but with fight week distractions I just added on more to PVZ, diluted my average price to +102.5 but i'm on for a lot now and feel really good about it.

Also happily loaded up a lot but not quite as much as on PVZ (about half the risk size) on Alves at +168 average and feel good about that too.

Obviously if I go 2/2 it's a huge card for me and 0/2 is a disaster, and 1/2 would be a moderate win if it's PVZ that wins or a small loss if it's Alves that wins due to sizing.

I think i'm going to end up making a smaller bet on Doo Ho Choi too, I just think that Stephens best path to beating him is via wrestling and he just doesn't like to do that, Stephens will stand and trade with anyone. I guess he took Pettis down a bit but didn't exactly look to LnP him i'm trying to think of other examples where he's used his wrestling game. Choi's looked to have iffy TDD, but his technique and volume are better than Stephens on the feet and the only place Stephens probably has an edge is power. Choi has a chin as we saw in the Swanson fight so he's fairly unlikely to get knocked out, which leads me to believe that he's a decent fav here. If I knew Stephens was coming to shoot takedowns at any chance he got i'd definitely consider betting on him as a dog, but he isn't exactly known for his fight IQ the way say Darren Elkins is

I like Jessy Jess over PVZ despite the distraction of her home robbery. Paige left TAM and is training in Oregon with her boyfriend and to be near family. I don't think this is an improvement in her training, although she sounds happier. Paige also got thrown around by blown up atomweight Michelle Waterson, and she's moving up in weight to flyweight to face bantamweight Jessica Rose-Clark. Paige is athletic and scrambly, but I see Jessica pushing her up against the cage and grinding on her. I believe Jessica punches will strike harder and hurt Paige much more than vice versa. I expect Jessica to win a decision.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www....th-new-gym-ufc

Is that really a downgrade the head coach seems to have legit credentials etc and she's working on her bjj.

I guess we strongly disagree on this one. I mean I'm an Australian but Clark isn't exactly Shevchenko or whatever. Her only ufc calibre win is a split vs bec rawlings who is pretty bad. Carina damm split who is 38. Missed weight last fight, personal distractions fight week etc

They're the same height and Clark has like a 1 inch reach advantage. Yes body frame matters but pvz can add muscle and not kill herself cutting weight. Disclaimer I've only seen I think one Clark fight and yes Waterson is small but she's not some random nobody she's the ex atomweight champ and clearly did ask muscle but she won more due to technique. Is Clark really going to rag doll pvz? If she does she wins but I don't see it. I think Paige is going to outwork Clark but we'll see I guess.

Only bet of the card was Alves and that fight is off now.
Apparently Cummings slipped in the bath and cracked his skull.

Oh wow that sucks. Guess i'm down to one bet for the card, although i'll probably make a smaller bet on Choi

We lost Whittaker/Rockhold in the last 24h too, Whittaker injured and Rockhold/Romero for yet another interim title now. I can't stand either Rockhold or Romero and would have been livid if i'd bought tickets to 221 especially since they failed to stack it

Even on a numbered PPV on at US primetime the UFC gives us total garbage in Australia. Romero/Rockhold would be a solid co-main I guess on a decent card, and Hunt vs Blaydes is main card caliber although not really main or co-main quality for a PPV. The rest are prelims fights on any PPV.

Yoel Romero vs. Luke Rockhold
Mark Hunt vs. Curtis Blaydes
Tai Tuivasa vs. Cyril Asker
Jake Matthews vs. Li Jingliang
Tyson Pedro vs. Saparbek Safarov

...who the hell is going to buy that PPV? Cut your losses, make it a fight night and give us a real PPV card when Whittaker's healthy, along with a real PPV quality undercard. In all seriousness this weekend's fight night card with 4 main cards fights has more name value and star power than this 'PPV' card, I assume the Interim is to they can promote it as having a title fight, Whittaker just got his interim promoted to actual champ without defending it and is now injured which sucks. I think Whittaker should beat the winner of this fight but hey at least one of them has to lose

Not a great start to this card. Hall/Vitor got cancelled and I felt pretty good about my -217 there. Now Burnell, who I have at +160, misses weight.

Lets go PVZ and Elkins!

Gross to lose both Hall vs Belfort and Alves vs Cummings

Let's go PVZ and i'll take a look tomorrow at weigh in pics etc and probably end up betting on Choi too although smaller

Surely some value on Meek at around +400-550?

Invicta FC 27 Risk $1127.51

Sarah Kaufman (-265) vs Pannie Kianzad $262.51 for $99.06
Sharon Jacobson (-150) vs Ashley Nichols $150.00 for $100.00
Ashley Cummins (-215) vs Stephanie Alba $215.00 for $100.00
Cheri Muraski (+175) vs Brogan Sanchez $100.00 for $175.00

Parlay:
Vanessa Porto (-380) vs Mariana Morais + Sarah Kaufman (-265) vs Pannie Kianzad $400.00 for $295.93

Regarding Meek: I placed a bet on him at +475, but I am obviously hugely biased as a Norwegian and mostly want the sweat. I think his biggest strength going into this fight is the X factor. Guy had a big ramping up of his career with his last two fights and seems to just ooze confidence. He is also unranked and Usman might be looking past him a bit too much to higher ranked opponents (which he deserve to fight, tbf). Other than that Meek's skillset is somewhat limited, but if the fight remains standing (which I think is somewhat likely), there is plenty of room for the upset to happen. Hard to cap that, though, but the central lesson I think my model teaches is the lines tend to favor betting underdogs because there really is an "anything could happen" factor in MMA which is underestimated. You'd think the combination of that, his confidence, and having nothing to lose made +475 at least not entirely terrible...