MMA Thread

[DjSkyy]

Originally Posted by just_mo

elliot is one of thoe Diaz guys IIRC. Just gotta roll your eyes and move on.

@Dj I feel Ebersole was a good bet in retrospect. I mean I had considered betting him but ended up passing. He was pretty damn dominant in those last two rounds, he just got caught in the first by a fluke strike. I gotta say Ebersole made a fan of me last night, he goes for your life when ground and pounding...fun to watch. (Not trying to pull a Swoop WRT to calling a key strike a fluke But that was like the single most solid strike I've ever seen Waldburger land and he never really threatened Ebersole on the feet after that)

i pretty much agree with all of this, and i'd bet on ebersole again at similar odds against either middle tier guys or unproven up and comers. hopefully he learned his lesson last night about avoiding random counters against guys with power.

[SwoopAE]

I'd be worried about home field decisions but i'm leaning towards betting Rich at the last second as all the late money is coming in on Wandy. Rich is -140 now, I think I can get him at -120 maybe. I see it going like the Liddell fight a bit, Wandy has his moments in r1 then gets caught late in R1 or sometime in R2 and his chin fails him.

If Rich is serious about making a run at MW he'll win this. If he's only showing for the paycheck he'll lose basically.

May get on Bodao or Wolverine as well if the odds get better. Kinda tempted to take Pepey as well as such a big dog. Jason's good but getting overrated imo and is a huge fav.

Edit: added a unit on Bodao and half a unit on Pepey

Edit2: actually decided I like Bodao more, made it 4.5u on him total. He impressed me on the show and Macarro didn't and i think he wants it more. Price is decent too he's only a small fav.

[SwoopAE]

-125 seems like a good price. Anyone else who watched TUF Brazil like or dislike it?

[just_mo]

Originally Posted by DjSkyy

as for tonight, i can't quite bring myself to lay -500 on the buttscooting werdum...i mean, obv he has a +4 reach adv and is the more experienced and high level fighter...but man that is some serious chalk against a legit up and comer. I think i might just try to get +450 on russow for a small bet against a friend and then feel stupid when he gets subbed in the first.

wandy vs ace is obviously a pretty interesting matchup. At first i was all over silva here, but the more i consider that:

A) ace has +2inch reach

B) wandy's chin has been gone for some time, but he never seemed to realize that and fight more defensively

C) ace should have a slight size advantage in the cage

D) ace has higher fight IQ and gameplanning (and overall smarts)

E) the only real advantages i can see for wanderlei here are the dubious ones of home field adv and the adv of being more of a sociopath, and i think ace's determination and fight iq will largely negate both.

at first i had seen this matchup as one that was probably going to go to a decision, but the more i think about it, the more i think franklin by tko is going to be as much as a 1/3 chance outcome, and he will also win the majority of decisions, so overall it oughta be more like -240 ace, and so -170 on franklin is probably the bet. the late line movement on wandy isnt surprising tho, as he is one of the most beloved and iconic fighters in the sport, and this very well may be his retirement fight. for the informed mma bettor tho, makes me think u might wanna double down on ace if u can get that juicy -155ish lines some books are now offering.

B is the main thing for me. Rich has never had the greatest chin out there but Silva's chin has eroded to a worrying point. Plus, Franklin has pretty decent power.

I'm going with a half unit bet on Werdum by decision actually. I could obv see a sub happening but as I said before Russow's chin is godly and I don't see him staying in Werdum's guard. Since he has the wrestling advantage, I think theres a good chance this will be mainly contested on the feet.

@Swoop Franklin always shows up in shape, no real worries there.

[Onlydo2days]

I'm gonna follow you guys on Franklin. More of a bet against Wandy as it should be his last fight. I don't see what chance he has other than landing a haymaker (a legit chance at that)

[SwoopAE]

Wandy's best chance is to go nuts and try for a finish in the first.

Sick use of a 10-10 round there to make the first fight a draw, I thought Arantes had it too but Viera did land the biggest strike of the second round so fair enough.

I'm pretty heavy on Bodao and will be on Franklin, considering a play on Pe De Chumbo, but not sure. Everyone says Massa is good but I don't see it and he's undersized, and PDC takes his training very seriously.

[SwoopAE]

added a couple units on Pe De Chumbo now that he's into -110. I'll add more if Bodao wins probably. Size + experience counts for a lot against Massaranduba here imo. He should take it by decision if I had to guess.

[SwoopAE]

Love these TUF Brazil guys. He was down 2 rounds, came out like he wanted it and got the TKO. Galeto looked pretty good too, for the first 2 rounds anyway. They should both get contracts, they'll tear through lower level UFC guys.

[SwoopAE]

franklin into -135 on pinn. i'm going to wait though think i can get him at -120ish later, hopefully anyway

[SwoopAE]

Close round, I think Bodao got it in the last 30 secs but Macarro was ahead until then. Could go either way.

[SwoopAE]

Easy 10-9 for Bodao there. Either 19-19 or 20-18 Bodao, could go either way.

If he tweaks his standup and wrestling a bit he's going to be a beast at WW as he matures as a fighter

[DodgerIrish]

Woot

[SwoopAE]

What a boss

Good start to the card, up over half of what I lost yesterday already

It looked like a late stoppage at first but Macarro was defending, I like Yamasaki's call to let it go there and give him a chance until it was clear he wasn't going to recover.

Bodao's turned me into a huge fan of his over the course of the TUF season plus today. I hope he drops to WW and makes some noise, he can make the cut and he'll be HUGE at WW imo.

[SwoopAE]

Added 1u on Wolverine, 0.5u on Gasparzinho (Wolverine should win but not good enough odds for a big bet more a degen one; and Gaspar is neutral too but Damm pisses me off and isnt that good and I like Gaspar so why not)

plus another 0.5u on Pepey as a decent dog, 4u on Franklin and another unit on Pe De Chumbo

[SwoopAE]

10-9 Wolverine but I wouldnt be surprised if the 'Maynard beat Guida' crowd who value octagon control over effective striking score it for Texeira

Huge size difference, definitely a * on the win if Macapa wins. Wolverine will be a beast at BW. Wouldn't have bet if I remembered just how big the size diff is if Macapa doesnt cut weight but Wolverines better technically he can win this