Valentina Schevchenko Round 4 @ +1900
Valentina Schevchenko Round 5 @ +3400

Yeah I just watched it and you're right there's a big height difference. I feel like that's the only thing that Magny has going for him though, and I feel like that's already priced into the line given the skill difference between the fighters.

I don't think Magny has ever done a good job of fighting tall and using his reach against guys with fast hands. Where he shines is against brawlers who are looking for the one shot knockout like Hendricks or Lombard because he can work them down from range.

But against guys who can fight in that intermediate range, I feel like he struggles because his hands are so mediocre. The only guy with really good hands who he's beaten that I'm aware of is Gastelum, and Gastelum can't mix in kicks the way RDA can. RDA is also quite smart, he's got good fight IQ and is good at making adjustments.

For me, RDA's path to victory here is clear: Lots of leg kicks, head movement, rely on far superior hands, fight at intermediate range. Basically just do what Lorenz Larkin did, he's got a similar skillset to him.

I'm not really sure what Magny's path to victory is apart from trying to work him down from the outside, and I don't think that's going to be enough for him. Just my opinion though, I could easily be wrong.

Yeah it's height range and size. Magny has ridiculous reach for the division too

177.8cm for rda, 203.2cm for magny in reach - Magny has 10 inches of reach on RDA and is the bigger guy i'm not sure RDA will even be able to leg kick him he's at such a reach disadvantage... what he can do however is get inside and land on his chin

I originally liked RDA then Magny then back to no play, i'm leaning Magny at the current lines but maybe RDA if it was a pickem? Idk. I might talk myself into a Magny bet again if the price keeps rising even though i've been saying Magny's overrated forever the size difference is real.

My spider sense is all up in Valentina Schevchenko core,
she is BIG, or be it with a smashed brain in that skull cap, girl tank / tank girl

My original play was nunes but my feel is she is levels below in strength, Valentina is MUCH stronger.

UFC 215 Risk $3103.30

Valentina Shevchenko (-116) vs Amanda Nunes $232.00 for $200.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins by TKO/KO (+709) $50.00 for $354.50
Amanda Nunes wins in round 1 (+500) $20.00 for $100.00
Amanda Nunes wins in round 2 (+750) $25.00 for $187.50
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+925) $25.00 for $231.25
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 3 (+1700) ~$26.10 for ~$443.70
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 4 +(1225) $15.00 for $183.75
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 4 (+2400) ~$26.10 for ~$626.40
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 5 (+1700) $15.00 for $255.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 5 (+3200) ~$26.10 for ~$835.20
Valentina Shevchenko/Amanda Nunes draw (+7000) $20.00 for $1,400.00

Neil Magny (+175) vs Rafael dos Anjos $100.00 for $175.00

Wilson Reis (+380) vs Henry Cejudo $50.00 for $190.00

Ilir Latifi (+110) vs Tyson Pedro $200.00 for $220.00
Ilir Latifi (-135) vs Tyson Pedro $270.00 for $200.00
Ilir Latifi wins in round 3 (+1200) $10.00 for $120.00

Jeremy Stephens (-115) vs Gilbert Melendez $345.00 for $300.00
Jeremy Stephens +3½ points (-270) $270.00 for $100.00

Ketlen Vieira (+190) vs Sara McMann $200.00 for $380.00
Ketlen Vieira wins by TKO/KO (+1090) $50.00 for $545.00
Sara McMann wins by submission (+549) $25.00 for $137.25
Sara McMann wins in round 2 (+750) $20.00 for $150.00
Sara McMann wins in round 3 (+1225) $15.00 for $183.75

Ashlee Evans-Smith wins by TKO/KO (+425) vs Sarah Moras $20.00 for $85.00
Ashlee Evans-Smith wins in round 3 (+1225) $15.00 for $183.75
Ashlee Evans-Smith/Sarah Moras Under 2½ (+220) $100.00 for $220.00

Gavin Tucker/Rick Glenn Under 2½ (+190) $100.00 for $190.00

Mitch Clarke (+175) vs Alex White $100.00 for $175.00

Luis Henrique (+185) vs Arjan Bhullar $100.00 for $185.00

Adriano Martins wins by TKO/KO (+115) vs Kajan Johnson $40.00 for $46.00
Adriano Martins wins inside distance (-120) $180.00 for $150.00

Fights to end in KO/TKO over 3½ (+169) $40.00 for $67.60
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+483) $20.00 for $96.60
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+1447) $15.00 for $217.05
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 6½ (+5725) $5.00 for $286.25
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 7½ (+32300) $3.00 for $969.00

Adriano Martins wins Fastest KO (+500) $20.00 for $100.00
Gavin Tucker/Rick Glenn FOTN award winner (+750) $10.00 for $75.00

Parlays:
Adriano Martins (-455) vs Kajan Johnson + Henry Cejudo/Wilson Reis Over 2½ (-270) + Jeremy Stephens/Gilbert Melendez Over 2½ (-225) $200.00 for $282.89

Adriano Martins (-455) vs Kajan Johnson + Ashlee Evans-Smith/Sarah Moras Over 2½ (-257) + Demetrious Johnson/Ray Borg Under 4½ (-120) $100.00 for $210.64

Magnys mma career problem is he doesn't use his reach because he doesn't have the power punch to scare people off.

Welp, you guys talked me into Ilir Latifi... I surely hope I don't curse every1

Nunes Round 2
8.02 (stake) £25.00 (win) £175.39

so nunes did extensive cardio training at American top team to ensure she was fresh in r4,r5?

value of the thread would have been for some one to have put that forward before we lump funds on people who have a supposed advantage in the championship rounds vs a fighter "that gases".


think ill leave mma betting alone for a few years, I don't have the time to research wtf is actually going on, betting mma requires some one to do the ground work outside of huge spots (obvious plays).

Rough card for me again going 0/2, overruled my original Stephens lean and I was always going to bet Shevchenko but at least it was close

Rough main event for everyone I think with Nunes winning a decision. I slept through the card (fixing up my sleep pattern for NFL tonight) Sherdog had it a close win for Shevchenko so it seems like it was close but the consensus seems to be the fight was boring, I guess i'll just catch the finishes and move on to the next card

So I went 4-0 on the undercards, with all underdogs. Then drop 4 straight on the main card. Then get the decision in the main. Rofl. Great night overall though. 5-4, + 8.7u. That more than makes up for the previous terrible card. Model is back in the black!

What stood out to me tonight was Cejudo. Even outside modelling I've rated Reis higher than most I think, and been a bit bearish on Cejudo. But that guy is coming along great now.

Went 2-0.

Couple thoughts from the fight: Jeremy Stephens looked the best I've ever seen him. Great win for him, I've always been a fan.

The Latifi fight was closer than I thought it would be, Tyson Pedro has a great future ahead of him.

And I agree on Cejudo. The guy is a winner and looked significantly improved. Assuming Dilishaw never happens, he's my pick for the guy who has the best chance of beating Mighty Mouse.

She's been doing that ever since she moved to ATT / became a proper full-time fighter as far as I know. I don't think it was something that was new for this fight. I also don't know if there's necessarily any evidence that she's made a big turnaround in that regard.

If Shevchenko didn't push Nunes hard enough to make her drain her tank, then which is the better explanation: Nunes' "improved cardio" or Shevchenko's failures in gameplanning?

Very good post. With no clinching tds or scrambles nearly all fighters can go 10 rds if need be.

Close fight. I had it rds 1 3 5 for nunes.
Cejudo looked very good. Stephens did as well.

Really liking Wonderboy at -129, I nearly fired at -127 earlier but waiting for now action seems pretty even on both sides so far. Fight's a long way away though not going to tie up the money for a month and a half unless i'm getting evens there as I expect i'll be able to still get -140 to -150 on fight day worst case there. Can't wait for that fight, I hope the winner gets the winner of Woodley/Lawler assuming they make that. I might be one of the only people in the world who would still happily watch Wonderboy/Woodley 3 and I still want to bet on Wonderboy a third time in that fight if it happens. Will be very happy to take Masvidal against Woodley if he beats Wonderboy too as that will mean his standups improved even more than I currently think it has.

I want to see all of Wonderboy, Masvidal and Lawler fight each other in the next year while they're all still in their primes, Lawler only has so many wars left. Would happily watch Condit against any of them too if he decides to come out of retirement.

For the Rockhold/Branch card at first glance i'm interested in Usman or Usman decision if it's bettable (I love Moraes but he's only really live to get a sub from the bottom and puncher's chance, this fight is made for Usman to decision him). No prices for anything other than the main yet is annoying hopefully we get lines soon

Thoughts on the upcoming UFN? I'm surprised Uriah Hall is that big of a dog. Jotko is well-rounded, but the best area of his game is his striking and I don't think he's necessarily a better striker than Uriah Hall (and he certainly doesn't have Uriah Hall's power.) I was expecting Uriah Hall to open as like a 3:2 favorite, so I love him at +170.

Uriah Hall's last 4 fights have been against top of the food chain competition (Mousasi twice, Whittaker, and Brunson), and he's gone 1-3 against them. Against non-elite competition (which I would certainly consider Jotko to be), he's gone 4-3 (including 4-1 in his last 5), with all of his losses coming by split decision. He's also only 33.

Also like Mike Perry and Hector Lombard. What are you guys thinking?

Lawler doesn't look like the same fighter he once was, I don't think he's in his prime anymore and will happily fade him vs any of the contenders you mention.

Anybody watch boxing?, any intake on the GGG v Canelo fight?

RE the Nunes v Shevs fight. I thought Shevsenko's game plan was too make her gas out, she did a poor job of that. Obviously should make Nunes work and that means making her use muscles, you do that by wrestling, clinching, lots of grappling. She did none of that, I really thought Shevshenko would of beat Nunes with that game plan, and utterly disappointing to see a challenger fight so tentative/boring trying to outland by a few punches. Similar to Wonderboy, just boring and not in there like a true gladiator. You need to do more than try to eek out a decision.

She needed to do more in order to gas her out, I mean we have evidence that Nunes gasses out, she has done that in several fights, then to come out and fight like she did is just pathetic, she does not deserve that belt!

Agree with Hall being a great spot, was surprised by the line aswell.

I do like Perry, but I rather bet the over 1.5 rounds for a better price.

Lombard is a bit tricky, no idea what to think of that fight, think ill stay away from that one.

I'm tempted by Hall too. Usman opens a way bigger fav than I thought, almost tempted by Moraes at +4xx, he's live on the feet and he has among the best BJJ in the UFC if Usman's on top of him so he's live to get a sweep or a sub. I fully expect Usman to 30-27 him via topcontrol, but +4xx is worth a crack maybe.

Agree that Lawler is a fade vs the elite strikers of the division now. I think the winner of Masvidal vs Wonderboy will win the belt (despite Wonderboy's two Woodley fights I still think he's a favourite against Woodley and he should match up well with Lawler and Masvidal too). I think Masvidal matches up well with Woodley too.

I'm sort of tempted by Gilbert Burns even though he's not as good as I originally thought, I like Uriah Hall as a dog and I think +470ish is too long a price for Moraes so may make a small play there too (I think he's something like a +300 dog to Usman and originally thought I might get Usman -200 or something). Aubin-Mericer is kind of tempting as only a small fav too. Nothing else really stands out.

At this stage i'm pretty tempted to get on those four I guess but no bets yet nothing stands out as a much bet to lock in the price now spot so I can wait for weigh-ins unless any of the spots I like starts to steam heavily

I'm a little surprised you guys don't like Lombard that much. I get it that he's old, was busted for steroids, and hasn't performed all that well recently, but he's fighting a 6'5 guy with questionable take down defense and grappling.

Lombard's only matches at Middleweight since moving up were against extremely good wrestlers (Hendricks and Henderson), so he wasn't really able to secure a take down and beat them up from the top.

Against a 6'5 guy, I think that Lombard just clinches, gets the take down, and beats the sh*t out of him on the ground. Lombard went to the Olympics in Judo and is gorilla strong, so if he's able to clinch I think he should have a very good fight.

That having been said, Lombard does have a lot of red flags since he's 39 years old, a former steroid user, and is on a 3 fight losing streak, so I get why people might want to pass on him here.

Alves/Perry is off.

http://mmajunkie.com/2017/09/thiago-...ght-mike-perry

Platinum Mike Perry‏Verified account
@PlatinumPerry

Respect to my new opponent steppin up on 3 days notice. Let's see what you got Alex Reyes

Alex Reyes is a 155'er.

Started career 0-2. Now is 12-2.

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alex-Reyes-24199

If he wins, maybe he gets a wikipedia page.

Yeah there's a heap of red flags that would concern me with Lombard.

I think Smith is easily the least-accomplished fighter Lombard has been in the cage with since coming over to the UFC. It looks very much like they're setting this up as a get-right fight (or at least a "prove you're not shot" fight) for Lombard.

That said... yes he's old and we really don't know how much the steroids were propping him up, but I suspect a lot. The way he's lost the past three fights have been concerning too. You've gotta screw up pretty bad to get KO'd by a slow and brittle Old Man Dan Henderson, and Neil Magny isn't really known as a knockout artist either, but he got the TKO over Lombard. And there might have been no shame in losing to prime Johny Hendricks, but losing to 2017 Johny Hendricks isn't a good look at all.

Surely at some point this Branch line is too much. I get that Rockhold kinda counters his game in some ways, but at the same time he's no slouch of a fighter, and there are some asterisks next to Rockhold's name. Getting KOed by Bisping and being away from fighting for so long. Here I go with the underdogs again