I got maia. Rewatch maia v magny .

ya cheap dana white didnt add le? i thought they both were a lock for a contract. hes such a cheap bastard.

i literally renewed my fight pass just for this, its pretty entertaining.

So close to cashing a decent dog there and ITD too- DeAnda screwed up with those illegal blows. Thanh Le deserved the contract more. O'Malley is fun as hell, but how the hell is he going to do against wrestlers and well rounded fighters?

Any thoughts on this weekends card.

Big steam on Gastelum got a little early at 1.7
Also like the look of Ryan Laflare. But need to research a little more.

Weidman is going to be substantially bigger with much better grappling.

Think this fight is a pick'em. Will probably bet Weidman as a dog.

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I would have agreed with you before the Mousasi fight. But given how tired Weidman was in that fight with a grapple heavy approach. I think he is in trouble against Gastelum if he can't spend long periods of time with top control.

Ended up taking Ryan Laflare at 1.6. Think he is just outside the elite fighters in the division. Has a great gas tank is very well rounded. I think he beats a fighter like Oliveira at least 65-70% of the time.

Chris Weidman price went up to +168 yesterday, wish I grabbed it then. His height and size advantage will be significant against the surging Gastelum, even coming off of three losses to top middleweights. Not to mention Gastelum may miss weight yet again and that remains to be seen. I think this might finally be the big middleweight who used to fight at light heavyweight that is too good and too damn big to take on rightful welterweight Gastelum. It's on the move back down so I locked in $300 at +151 before it gets closer to evens. If Weidman wins the first round as he almost always does and looks to be gassing, I think one can live bet Gastelum after the first or second round at a decent price as well.

Agree here. Clipped off 2u on Weidman at +165 today. He should have a pretty big size and strength advantage over Gastelum. I don't have a live bet out so I'm hoping his gas tank holds.

Still a lot of questions for me on Weidman post IV ban and USADA, but odds and size advantage make it hard for me not to be on Weidman here.

Gastelum has looked good in his recent wins, but everyone he has fought during his middle weight resurgence has been on their way out.

Pig Rig ate his old self and became a fat hobo who lost his power shot.
Vitor is calling for a legends division bc he's too old to last more than 15 seconds at maximum effort.
And Tim Kennedy just looked bad out there. Like really bad.

Where as Weidman has looked bad in his recent losses, but he has been fighting top five middleweights only.

Agreed, I have this as close to a flip with a lot depending on the size difference and Weidman's cardio. Resisted firing at +130 or so but now that I can get better than +150 I have to I think. +165 is insane shame I missed that

10u Weidman +151

I'm highly confident that Weidman's going to win the first round, it's what happens after that that's up in the air.

Weidman may have lost 3 straight, but he was 1-1 vs Romero until he ate a knee shooting, won the first round vs Mousasi before running out of gas and a screwy finish involving almost-illegal knees that should have either been the fight continuing or a NC given what went down in the cage (yes he was in trouble but it wasn't a foregone conclusion that Mousasi was going to win if they'd restarted the fight) and he was on his way to being up 2 rounds to 1 against Rockhold before he threw the spinning whatever and got beaten up for the rest of the fight

Gastelum will TKO him standing if he gasses, but if he doesn't Weidman has to be the favourite. Gastelum will be quicker but Weidman will have a big size and power advantage and a huge reach advantage

Wild card is the Gastelum interview from only a year or two ago where he expresses that he doesn't think he can beat Weidman and Rockhold at MW when he's arguing for fighting at WW.

Gastleum , being results orientated though

Really rethinking my Weismann bet. Need to finish rewatching Weismann fights, but after rewatching the mouse fight, I am much more sceptical of his gas tank than I was from memory. Hopefully he'll steam some more and I can lay off on gastelum for a straight up arb. The more I think about this fight the more I like an itd bet as the likely path to victory for both are finishes. My thinking at this point is that I likely will be heavy on fight ends itd, Weidman tko and gastelum tko. I was pretty high on Weismann from memory and physical advantage, but I'm starting to doubt a straight bet on weidman is the great spot it was earlier. I think the spot on this fight is itd.

Realized my phone autocorrected weidman to weismann but I'm too lazy to edit it on mobile.

My two main bets for this card are
Laflare 1.58 and Bermudez at 1.5.
Think both of these fighters are better all round then their opponents. Brazillian Cowboy may have more punching power and Elkins has a better chin. I still think the match ups favour Laflare and Bermudez.

Have some money on Gastelum at 1.7, as I was taking part of a casino promo and could't withdraw money but could bet it on sports. Looks good at the current odds.

I love betting on Darren Elkins as a dog and ROI wise he's my best fighter ever, everything about this fight says Bermudez should win... except his chin and Elkins heart. Elkins fight IQ is always a huge plus too except the problem here is the best way to beat Bermudez is to touch his chin and take a shot to give a shot. Elkins has a WAY better chin, but his offensive fire power just isn't there compared to Bermudez... that said, he did knock out Mirsad Bektic after getting his ass kicked for the entire fight, but I kind of think that was a fluke even though he consistently wins fights he's not supposed to.

Pepey is somewhat tempting at +3xx... how good is Burgos? I can't remember any of his fights i'll have to watch some tape but given Pepey fights to finish or be finished (lots of defensive leaks but solid offense too) it's a pretty tempting price

I might take a look at Elkins by KO/ITD if the line is good just because Bermudez is so chinny and has been finished in all of his losses. Hoping if Bermudez wins this one that his next opponent has KO power. Pretty crazy Holloway didn't finish him in hindsight (although Holloway did win that fight imo) and I guess he was a lot younger at the time, Holloway would sleep him inside two rounds pretty much every time now.

Almeida scorecards no action maybe as a small dog to Rivera? He's going to come out for the kill and Rivera's pretty likely to decision him or get knocked out I think. Pretty tempted by that one. It's weird it's still really hard to tell how good Almeida is. Rivera we basically know is next tier after Cody/TJ/Cruz etc but better than Faber, Almeida it's hard to say still. He lost a round to Pickett, but won via KO and his only loss was to Cody who is obviously legit.

^ Came to thread just to confirm that Swoop is on Weidman again

In other news moving sucks. Gonna take a while to get everything back up and running. Might place some sweat bets for the next few cards. That way I have an excuse to bet DC against my better judgement.

Dog action on AXS TV tonight

LFA 17 Risk $400.00

Robert Watley (+205) vs Thiago Moises $100.00 for $205.00
Keith Richardson (+115) vs Tony Gravely $100.00 for $115.00
Mike Stevens (+365) vs Hugo Hernando Prada $100.00 for $365.00
Tebaris Gordon (+220) vs Chandler Cole $100.00 for $220.00

Weidman and 5 rounds vs a guy that has a granite chin and great boxing. Anybody see a similar fight as the previous? I mean Weidman needs to Gnp TKO him imo, and needs to do it in the first round, maybe the 2nd but from what I have seen Weidmans cardio is seriuosly lacking and I don't think he can wrestle even 2 rounds let alone 3 or 4. Even if he does win say 2 rounds, he'll be toast going into the later rounds, I really don't see Weidman winning and I hate seeing him lose another fight but I think that's the reality, right there.

Weidman wins 1 maybe 2 rounds and I doubt he finishes Gastelum, what's Gastelum's wrestling like? What's his tdd like? It's possible Weidman does get the finish but Gastelum would literally have to let him do it to him by not making him wirk for his take downs and not scrambling etc.

I agree I really do not see this fight going the distance, seems like a lock imo!

Does Weidman submit guys at all? Perhaps Gastelum has holes in his ground game, might be a decent prop

I was looking at this earlier too. Gastelum has pretty horrific stand ups that lead to him getting his back taken frequently. Decided to pass but seems like a decent spot.

Not related to tonight's event but considering hitting Cyborg pretty hard at 1.10.
I know a lot of people laugh at these odds. But the only way I see her losing is through freak injury. Or maybe a tiny percentage of the time through some freak headbutt flash KO or something.

Still I think this happens a lot less then 10% of the time. Seems like even at 1.10 she is decent value.

Bochniak +230 1u
Laflare -200 1u
Zaleski +140 1u
River via dec +120 1u
Bermudez -215 2u
Weidman +140 0.5u

Slighter better odds Cyborg by KO.

Shane Burgos 1.10 on Pinnacle????

Pepey throwing the fight or going in with a broken arm or something.
Seems pretty crazy.

My lock bet Weidman v Gastelum itd £100 @ 1.57

Ryan Laflare £100 @ 1.53

3 props at ~£45 to win £70
Weidman by KO
Weidman Sub
Gastleum by KO

Parlay
Bermudez + Laflare £25 to win £60

Sherman + Laflare + Bermudez + Weidman itd £25 to win £125

Sherman by KO + Laflare + Bermudez + Weidman KO £18 to win £420

Sherman KO + LAflare + Bermudez + Gastleum KO £20 to win £260

Good luck me! Lets get that $$$$$

No
Will The Fight Go The Distance?
MMA UFC On Fox 25 - New York, United States - Chris
Weidman v Kelvin Gastelum
Stake £75.00
Odds Win 4/7
Potential Return £117.86




Ricardo Lamas v Jason Knight
/we like Knight here a lot?

Robbie Lawler v Donald Cerrone
/we like lawler in the 1st 2nd rd?

Jimi Manuwa v Volkan Oezdemir
/don't normally like 1/4 odds but the under 2.5 on this is a lock? I think Manuwa is really hitting his stride (drastically improved in power since Anthony.j loss?) and in his prime as bad arse as Oezdemir is I got Manuwa here.

Manuwa is the provable brick out house.