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Hoping to get Maia as a substantial dog to Woodley and I wouldn't be surprised if I can get +150 or better, while I agree with conventional wisdom that this isn't a great matchup for Maia I think the fight is a coinflip as I think Maia is still underrated and Woodley is overrated. Woodley's tendency to back up towards the cage could be a problem for him.
Strongly disagree. I think Woodley deserves to be at least a 3-1 favorite, if Maia opens at +150 I will backup the truck on Woodley.
Maia really has two ways to win:
1.) He could potentially try to outstrike Woodley. Woodley's not a great striker, but he's better than Maia and he has ridiculous power. This approach didn't work so well for Wonderboy, who is vastly superior on his feet to Maia.
2.) He could try to take him down and submit him, which is kind of his standard game plan. This will almost certainly not work - Woodley is shorter (which makes him harder to take down), is an NCAA Division 1 wrestler, and is a ridiculous physical specimen. It is VERY tough to take down somebody who is shorter and physically stronger than you, and I don't think there is any doubt that Woodley is the stronger man. I'm not saying it absolutely can't happen (Maia took down Chael Sonnen with a nice leg sweep), but I think it will be extremely difficult.
Plus, Maia would need to close the distance on a guy who doesn't really fear Maia's striking and who has ridiculous knockout power and is great at tagging guys when they come in.
I like Maia (and my sense is you do too), but this is a horrible matchup for him.